Super typhoons Rammasun(No.1409) and Hato(No.1713) both underwent rapidly intensification(RI) in the northern part of South China Sea before they made landfall. Forecast skills and service performance of tropical cycl...Super typhoons Rammasun(No.1409) and Hato(No.1713) both underwent rapidly intensification(RI) in the northern part of South China Sea before they made landfall. Forecast skills and service performance of tropical cyclones' RI process in the real-time operation is analyzed in this study. TCs are prone to intensify rapidly in the South China Sea, which is a complex process concluding complicated interaction between large scale environmental systems and tropical cyclone inner-core structure. The forecast performance of Rammasun and Hato shown that the subjective forecast of CMA has defect in the intensity forecast especially for the long-rang more than 48-hr. However, forecasters have chance to capture the signal of RI besides numerical operational models, which contribute to gain precious time for disaster reduction affairs. The role of local sea surface temperature and the warm core structure revealed by the numerical simulations are highlighted in doing comprehensive analysis in real-time forecast.展开更多
基金jointly funded by National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1501604) "Study of Key Dynamical and Thermal Process of Typhoon Intensity or Structural Change and Forecasting Theory"National Natural Science Foundation of China (41775048) "Study on the Mechanism of the Influence of the Middle and Upper Level Non-adiabatic Heating of the Troposphere on the Rapidly Intensification of Offshore Tropical Cyclones in China"
文摘Super typhoons Rammasun(No.1409) and Hato(No.1713) both underwent rapidly intensification(RI) in the northern part of South China Sea before they made landfall. Forecast skills and service performance of tropical cyclones' RI process in the real-time operation is analyzed in this study. TCs are prone to intensify rapidly in the South China Sea, which is a complex process concluding complicated interaction between large scale environmental systems and tropical cyclone inner-core structure. The forecast performance of Rammasun and Hato shown that the subjective forecast of CMA has defect in the intensity forecast especially for the long-rang more than 48-hr. However, forecasters have chance to capture the signal of RI besides numerical operational models, which contribute to gain precious time for disaster reduction affairs. The role of local sea surface temperature and the warm core structure revealed by the numerical simulations are highlighted in doing comprehensive analysis in real-time forecast.
