Simulation of critical transitions and vulnerability assessment of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems

Critical transitions in ecosystems may imply risks of unexpected collapse under climate changes,especially vegetation often responds sensitively to climate change.The type of vegetation ecosystem states could present alternative stable states,and its type could signal the critical transitions at tipping points because of changed climate or other drivers.This study analyzed the distribution of four key vegetation ecosystem types:desert,grassland,forest-steppe ecotone and forest,in Tibetan Plateau in China,using the latent class analysis method based on remote sensing data and climate data.This study analyzed the impacts of three key climate factors,precipitation,temperature,and sunshine duration,on the vegetation states,and calculated the critical transition tipping point of potential changes in vegetation type in Tibetan Plateau with the logistic regression model.The studied results showed that climatic factors greatly affect the vegetation states and vulnerability of the Tibetan Plateau.In comparison with temperature and sunshine duration,precipitation shows more obvious impact on differentiations of the vegetations status probability.The precipitation tipping point for desert and grassland transition is averagely 48.0 mm/month,70.7 mm/month for grassland and forest-steppe ecotone,and 115.0 mm/month for forest-steppe ecotone and forest.Both temperature and sunshine duration only show different probability change between vegetation and non-vegetation type,but produce opposite impacts.In Tibetan Plateau,the transition tipping points of vegetation and nonvegetation are about 12.1°C/month and 173.6 h/month for the temperature and sunshine duration,respectively.Further,vulnerability maps calculated with the logistic regression results presented the distribution of vulnerability of Tibetan Plateau key ecosystems.The vulnerability of the typical ecosystems in the Tibetan Plateau is low in the southeast and is high in the northwest.The meteorological factors affect tree cover as well as the transition probability that occurs in different vegetation states.This study can provide reference for local government agencies to formulate regional development strategies and environmental protection laws and regulations.

Deformation,structure and potential hazard of a landslide based on InSAR in Banbar county,Xizang(Tibet)

The Tibetan Plateau is characterized by complex geological conditions and a relatively fragile ecological environment.In recent years,there has been continuous development and increased human activity in the Tibetan Plateau region,leading to a rising risk of landslides.The landslide in Banbar County,Xizang(Tibet),have been perturbed by ongoing disturbances from human engineering activities,making it susceptible to instability and displaying distinct features.In this study,small baseline subset synthetic aperture radar interferometry(SBAS-InSAR)technology is used to obtain the Line of Sight(LOS)deformation velocity field in the study area,and then the slope-orientation deformation field of the landslide is obtained according to the spatial geometric relationship between the satellite’s LOS direction and the landslide.Subsequently,the landslide thickness is inverted by applying the mass conservation criterion.The results show that the movement area of the landslide is about 6.57×10^(4)m^(2),and the landslide volume is about 1.45×10^(6)m^(3).The maximum estimated thickness and average thickness of the landslide are 39 m and 22 m,respectively.The thickness estimation results align with the findings from on-site investigation,indicating the applicability of this method to large-scale earth slides.The deformation rate of the landslide exhibits a notable correlation with temperature variations,with rainfall playing a supportive role in the deformation process and displaying a certain lag.Human activities exert the most substantial influence on the spatial heterogeneity of landslide deformation,leading to the direct impact of several prominent deformation areas due to human interventions.Simultaneously,utilizing the long short-term memory(LSTM)model to predict landslide displacement,and the forecast results demonstrate the effectiveness of the LSTM model in predicting landslides that are in a continuous development and movement phase.The landslide is still active,and based on the spatial heterogeneity of landslide deformation,new recommendations have been proposed for the future management of the landslide in order to mitigate potential hazards associated with landslide instability.

Automatic extraction and structuration of soil–environment relationship information from soil survey reports

In addition to soil samples, conventional soil maps, and experienced soil surveyors, text about soils(e.g., soil survey reports) is an important potential data source for extracting soil–environment relationships. Considering that the words describing soil–environment relationships are often mixed with unrelated words, the first step is to extract the needed words and organize them in a structured way. This paper applies natural language processing(NLP) techniques to automatically extract and structure information from soil survey reports regarding soil–environment relationships. The method includes two steps:(1) construction of a knowledge frame and(2) information extraction using either a rule-based method or a statistic-based method for different types of information. For uniformly written text information, the rule-based approach was used to extract information. These types of variables include slope, elevation, accumulated temperature, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and frost-free period. For information contained in text written in diverse styles, the statistic-based method was adopted. These types of variables include landform and parent material. The soil species of China soil survey reports were selected as the experimental dataset. Precision(P), recall(R), and F1-measure(F1) were used to evaluate the performances of the method. For the rule-based method, the P values were 1, the R values were above 92%, and the F1 values were above 96% for all the involved variables. For the method based on the conditional random fields(CRFs), the P, R and F1 values for the parent material were, respectively, 84.15, 83.13, and 83.64%; the values for landform were 88.33, 76.81, and 82.17%, respectively. To explore the impact of text types on the performance of the CRFs-based method, CRFs models were trained and validated separately by the descriptive texts of soil types and typical profiles. For parent material, the maximum F1 value for the descriptive text of soil types was 90.7%, while the maximum F1 value for the descriptive text of soil profiles was only 75%. For landform, the maximum F1 value for the descriptive text of soil types was 85.33%, which was similar to that of the descriptive text of soil profiles(i.e., 85.71%). These results suggest that NLP techniques are effective for the extraction and structuration of soil–environment relationship information from a text data source.

Failure evaluation and control factor analysis of slope block instability along traffic corridor in Southeastern Tibet

The instability of slope blocks occurred frequently along traffic corridor in Southeastern Tibet(TCST),which was primarily controlled by the rock mass structures.A rapid method evaluating the control effects of rock mass structures was proposed through field statistics of the slopes and rock mass structures along TCST,which combined the stereographic projection method,modified M-JCS model,and limit equilibrium theory.The instabilities of slope blocks along TCST were then evaluated rapidly,and the different control factors of instability were analyzed.Results showed that the probabilities of toppling(5.31%),planar(16.15%),and wedge(35.37%)failure of slope blocks along TCST increased sequentially.These instability modes were respectively controlled by the anti-dip joint,the joint parallel to slope surface with a dip angle smaller than the slope angle(singlejoint),and two groups of joints inclined out of the slope(double-joints).Regarding the control effects on slope block instability,the stabilization ability of doublejoints(72.7%),anti-dip joint(67.4%),and single-joint(57.6%)decreased sequentially,resulting in different probabilities of slope block instability.Additionally,nearby regional faults significantly influenced the joints,leading to spatial heterogeneity and segmental clustering in the stabilization ability provided by joints to the slope blocks.Consequently,the stability of slope blocks gradually weakened as they approached the fault zones.This paper can provide guidance and assistance for investigating the development characteristics of rock mass structures and the stability of slope blocks.

Drivers,Trends,and Patterns of Changing Vegetation-greenness in Nansha Islands,China from 2016 to 2022

Changes in vegetation status generally also represents changes in the ecological health of islands and reefs(IRs).However,studies are limited of drivers and trends of vegetation change of Nansha Islands,China and how they relate to climate change and human activities.To resolve this limitation,we studied changes to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)vegetation-greenness index for 22 IRs of Nansha Islands during normal and extreme conditions.Trends of vegetation greenness were analyzed using Sen's slope and Mann-Kendall test at two spatial scales(pixel and island),and driving factor analyses were performed by time-lagged partial correlation analyses.These were related to impacts from human activities and climatic factors under normal(temperature,precipitation,radiation,and Normalized Difference Built-up Index(NDBI))and extreme conditions(wind speed and latitude of IRs)from 2016 to 2022.Results showed:1)among the 22 IRs,NDVI increased/decreased significantly in 15/4 IRs,respectively.Huayang Reef had the highest NDVI change-rate(0.48%/mon),and Zhongye Island had the lowest(–0.29%/mon).Local spatial patterns were in one of two forms:dotted-form,and degradation in banded-form.2)Under normal conditions,human activities(characterized by NDBI)had higher impacts on vegetation-greenness than other factors.3)Under extreme conditions,wind speed(R^(2)=0.2337,P<0.05)and latitude(R^(2)=0.2769,P<0.05)provided limited explanation for changes from typhoon events.Our results provide scientific support for the sustainable development of Nansha Islands and the United Nations‘Ocean Decade’initiative.

Factors affecting land dissection density in geomorphological regions of China

Land dissection density(LDD)provides morphological evidence regarding prior intense soil erosion and quantifies the distribution of land dissections.A comprehensive understanding of the potential factors influencing the spatial pattern and value of the LDD is vital in geological disasters,soil erosion,and other related domains.Land dissection phenomena in China affects large areas with different morphological,pedological,and climatic characteristics.Prior studies have focused on the potential factors influencing the LDD at a watershed scale.However,these results are insufficient to reflect the status quo of dissection development and its primary influencing factors on a national scale.LDD’s spatial patterns and the dominant factors at a regional scale in millions of square kilometers remain to be ascertained.This study used the geomorphon-based method and the geographical detector model to quantify the spatial pattern of LDD over China and identify the dominant factors affecting this pattern in China’s six first-order geomorphological regions(GR1~GR6).The results yield the following findings:(1)LDD in China ranges from 0~4.55 km/km^(2),which is larger in central and eastern regions than in other regions of China;(2)dominant factors and their dominant risk subcategories vary with each geomorphological region’s primary internal and external forces;(3)the influence of natural factors is more significant on the large regional scale in millions of square kilometers compared to anthropogenic factors;relief degree of land surface(RDLS)is dominant in GR1,GR2,and GR5;the slope is dominant in GR6,soil type is dominant in GR3 and GR4,and lithology plays a critical role in the dominant interactions of GR3,GR4,and GR6;(4)the interactions between factors on LDD’s spatial pattern have a more significant effect than individual factors.

Parameterization, sensitivity, and uncertainty of 1-D thermodynamic thin-ice thickness retrieval

Retrieval of Thin-Ice Thickness(TIT)using thermodynamic modeling is sensitive to the parameterization of the independent variables(coded in the model)and the uncertainty of the measured input variables.This article examines the deviation of the classical model’s TIT output when using different parameterization schemes and the sensitivity of the output to the ice thickness.Moreover,it estimates the uncertainty of the output in response to the uncertainties of the input variables.The parameterized independent variables include atmospheric longwave emissivity,air density,specific heat of air,latent heat of ice,conductivity of ice,snow depth,and snow conductivity.Measured input parameters include air temperature,ice surface temperature,and wind speed.Among the independent variables,the results show that the highest deviation is caused by adjusting the parameterization of snow conductivity and depth,followed ice conductivity.The sensitivity of the output TIT to ice thickness is highest when using parameterization of ice conductivity,atmospheric emissivity,and snow conductivity and depth.The retrieved TIT obtained using each parameterization scheme is validated using in situ measurements and satellite-retrieved data.From in situ measurements,the uncertainties of the measured air temperature and surface temperature are found to be high.The resulting uncertainties of TIT are evaluated using perturbations of the input data selected based on the probability distribution of the measurement error.The results show that the overall uncertainty of TIT to air temperature,surface temperature,and wind speed uncertainty is around 0.09 m,0.049 m,and−0.005 m,respectively.

Methods for the construction of DEMs of artificial slopes considering morphological features and semantic information

As human activities increase,artificially modified terrain is increasingly widely distributed in road,hydrological,and urban construction.Artificially modified terrain plays an important role in protecting from geological disasters and in the planning and design of urban landscapes.Compared with natural slopes,artificial slopes have obvious morphological characteristics.Traditional modeling methods are no longer suitable for digital elevation model(DEM)modeling of artificial slopes because they often seriously distort the DEM results.In this paper,from the perspective of morphological characteristics,artificial slopes are divided into two types,namely,regular slopes and irregular slopes,based on whether the top and bottom lines of the artificial slope are parallel.Then,according to the morphological characteristics of the two types of slopes,the following DEM construction methods are designed:the first method(perpendicular+inverse distance weighted)is suitable for regular slopes,and the second method(perpendicular+high-accuracy surface modeling)is suitable for irregular slopes.Finally,a DEM construction test is carried out using the artificial slopes in the study area.The results show that for the regular and irregular slopes in the study area,the construction method proposed in this paper has significant advantages in morphological accuracy over the traditional method(triangulated irregular network),and the elevation accuracy method is also superior to the traditional method(using this method,the mean error and standard deviation error of the regular slope DEM are 0.08 m and 0.13 m,respectively,and those of the irregular slope DEM are 0.08 m and 0.06 m).In addition,the top lines and bottom lines can be included in the DEM construction of the background area after processing the elevation information of the boundary line to realize a smooth transition in the boundary between the artificial slope and the background area.

Incorporating Exercise Efficiency to Evaluate the Accessibility and Capacity of Medical Resources in Tibet, China

Accessibility and capacity of medical resources are key for the health care and emergency response, while the efficiency of the medical resources is very much limited by hypoxia in Tibet, China.Through introducing exercise efficiency, this study explores the accessibility of township residence to county-ship medical resources in Tibet using weighted mean travel time(WMT), and evaluates the medical capacity accordingly.The results show that: 1) the average travel time of township residence to county-level hospital is around2 h by motor vehicle in Tibet.More than half of the population can not reach the county-ship hospital within 1 h, 33.24% of the population can not reach within 2 h, and 3.75% of the population can not reach within 6 h.2) When considering the catchment of the medical resources and the population size, the WMT of the county-ship medical resources ranges from 0.25 h to 10.92 h.3) After adjusted by travel time and exercise efficiency, the county-ship medical capacity became more unequal, with 38 out of 74 counties could not meet the national guideline of 1.8 medical beds per 1000.4) In total, there are 17 counties with good WMT and sufficient medical resources,while 13 counties having very high WMT and low capacity of medical resources in Tibet.In the end, suggestions on medical resources relocation and to improve the capacity are provided.This study provides a method to incorporate exercise efficiency to access the accessibility and evaluate medical capacity that can be applied in high altitude ranges.

The algorithm of decomposing superim-posed 2-D Poisson processes and its applica-tion to the extracting earthquake clustering pattern

Aiming at the complexity of seismic gestation mechanism and spatial distribution, we hypothesize that the seismic data are composed of background earthquakes and anomaly earthquakes in a certain temporal-spatial scope. Also the background earthquakes and anomaly earthquakes both satisfy the 2-D Poisson process of different parameters respectively. In the paper, the concept of N-th order distance is introduced in order to transform 2-D superimposed Poisson process into 1-D mixture density function. On the basis of choosing the distance, mixture density function is decomposed to recognize the anomaly earthquakes through genetic algorithm. Combined with the temporal scanning of C value, the algorithm is applied to the recognition on spatial pattern of foreshock anomalies by exam-ples of Songpan and Longling sequences in the southwest of China.

Modeling of Hillslope Runoff and Soil Erosion at Rainfall Events Using Cellular Automata Approach

A novel quantitative cellular automata (CA) model that simulates and predicts hillslope runoff and soil erosion caused by rainfall events was developed by integrating the local interaction rules and the hillslope surface hydraulic processes. In this CA model, the hillslope surface was subdivided into a series of discrete spatial cells with the same geometric features. At each time step, water and sediment were transported between two adjacent spatial cells. The flow direction was determined by a combination of water surface slope and stochastic assignment. The amounts of interchanged water and sediment were computed using the Chezy-Manning formula and the empirical sediment transport equation. The water and sediment discharged from the open boundary cells were considered as the runoff and the sediment yields over the entire hillslope surface. Two hillslope soil erosion experiments under simulated rainfall events were carried out. Cumulative runoff and sediment yields were measured, respectively. Then, the CA model was applied to simulate the water and soil erosion for these two experiments. Analysis of simulation results indicated that the size of the spatial cell, hydraulic parameters, and the setting of time step and iteration times had a large impact on the model accuracy. The comparison of the simulated and measured data suggested that the CA model was an applicable alternate for simulating the hillslope water flow and soil erosion.

Spatial and temporal change patterns of net primary productivity and its response to climate change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China from 2000 to 2015

The vegetation ecosystem of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China,considered to be the′′natural laboratory′′of climate change in the world,has undergone profound changes under the stress of global change.Herein,we analyzed and discussed the spatial-temporal change patterns and the driving mechanisms of net primary productivity(NPP)in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015 based on the gravity center and correlation coefficient models.Subsequently,we quantitatively distinguished the relative effects of climate change(such as precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration)and human activities(such as grazing and ecological construction)on the NPP changes using scenario analysis and Miami model based on the MOD17A3 and meteorological data.The average annual NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest during 2000–2015.With respect to the inter-annual changes,the average annual NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2015,with a steep increase observed in 2005 and a high fluctuation observed from 2005 to 2015.In the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,the regions with the increase in NPP(change rate higher than 10%)were mainly concentrated in the Three-River Source Region,the northern Hengduan Mountains,the middle and lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River,and the eastern parts of the North Tibet Plateau,whereas the regions with the decrease in NPP(change rate lower than–10%)were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and the Ali Plateau.The gravity center of NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has moved southwestward during 2000–2015,indicating that the increment and growth rate of NPP in the southwestern part is greater than those of NPP in the northeastern part.Further,a significant correlation was observed between NPP and climate factors in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.The regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation were mainly located in the central and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,and the regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and temperature were mainly located in the southern and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.Furthermore,the relative effects of climate change and human activities on the NPP changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau exhibited significant spatial differences in three types of zones,i.e.,the climate change-dominant zone,the human activity-dominant zone,and the climate change and human activity interaction zone.These research results can provide theoretical and methodological supports to reveal the driving mechanisms of the regional ecosystems to the global change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

Effect of Cropland Occupation and Supplement on Light-temperature Potential Productivity in China from 2000 to 2008

There are more people but less land in China,so food safety has always been a most important issue government concerned.With continuous population increase,economic development and environment protection,cropland occupation and supplement are unavoidable.It not only leads to the variation of cropland area,but also makes the light-temperature potential productivity per unit area different due to regional climate differentiation,therefore impacts the total potential productivity and food output eventually.So,it is necessary to analyze the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and to study its impact on total potential productivity,which is significant to reasonably develop natural resources and instruct agricultural arrangement.This study firstly discussed the variation and distribution of occupation and supplement croplands in China from 2000 to 2008,then analyzed the climate differentiation between occupation and supplement cropland areas and its effect on light-temperature potential productivity.The results demonstrate:1) From 2000 to 2008,the cropland variation presented occupation in the south and supplement in the north,but overall decreased.Supplement cropland was mainly from ecological reclamation(77.78%) and was mainly distributed in Northeast China and Northwest China with poor climatic and natural conditions.Occupation cropland was mainly used for construction(52.88%) and ecological restoration(44.78%) purposes,and was mainly distributed in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,and the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River with better climatic and natural conditions.2) The climate conditions were quite different in supplement and occupation cropland areas.The annual precipitation,annual accumulated temperature and average annual temperature were lower in the supplement cropland area,and its average po-tential productivity per unit was only 62% of occupation cropland area,which was the main reason for the decrease of total potential productivity.3) Cropland occupation and supplement led to the variation of total potential productivity and its spatial distribution.The productivity decreased in the south and increased in the north,but had a net loss of 4.38315×107 t in the whole country.The increase of cropland area was at the cost of reclaiming natural forest and grassland resources,and destroying natural ecological environment,while the decrease of cropland area was mainly due to a lot of cropland occupied by urban-rural construction,which threatened the sustainable use of cropland resources.

Growth of the Sayram Lake and retreat of its water-supplying glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains from 1972 to 2011

Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important constituents of water resources in arid and semiarid regions. Understanding their variations is critical for both an accurate evaluation of the dynamic changes of water resources and the retrieval of climatic information. On the basis of earlier researches, this study investigated the growth of the Sayram Lake and the retreat of its water-supplying glaciers in the Tianshan Mountains using long-term sequenced remote sensing images. Our results show that over the past 40 years, the surface area and the water level of the lake has increased by 12.0±0.3 km2 and 2.8 m, respectively, and the area of its water-supplying glaciers has decreased continuously since the early 1970s with a total reduction of about–2.13±0.03 km2. Our study has indicative significance to the research of regional climate change.

Optimizing the frequency ratio method for landslide susceptibility assessment: A case study of the Caiyuan Basin in the southeast mountainous area of China

Bivariate statistical analysis of data-driven approaches is widely used for landslide susceptibility assessment, and the frequency ratio(FR) method is one of the most popular. However, the results of such assessments are dominated by the number of classes and bounds of landslide-related causative factors, and the optimal assessment is unknown. This paper optimizes the frequency ratio method as an example of bivariate statistical analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping based on a case study of the Caiyuan Basin, a region with frequent landslides, which is located in the southeast coastal mountainous area of China. A landslide inventory map containing a total of 1425 landslides(polygons) was produced, in which 70% of the landslides were selected for training purposes, and the remaining were used for validationpurposes. All datasets were resampled to the same 5 m × 5 m/pixel resolution. The receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves of the susceptibility maps were obtained based on different combinations of dominating parameters, and the maximum value of the areas under the ROC curves(AUCs) as well as the corresponding optimal parameter was identified with an automatic searching algorithm. The results showed that the landslide susceptibility maps obtained using optimal parameters displayed a significant increase in the prediction AUC compared with those values obtained using stochastic parameters. The results also showed that one parameter named bin width has a dominant influence on the optimum. In practice, this paper is expected to benefit the assessment of landslide susceptibility by providing an easy-to-use tool. The proposed automatic approach provides a way to optimize the frequency ratio method or other bivariate statistical methods, which can furtherfacilitate comparisons and choices between different methods for landslide susceptibility assessment.

Quantitative distinction of the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution in the Yellow River Basin of China during 1981-2019

Under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,vegetation ecosystem has undergone profound changes.It can be seen that there are obvious differences in the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem in different historical periods.Therefore,it is urgent to identify and reveal the dominant factors and their contribution rates in the vegetation change cycle.Based on the data of climate elements(sunshine hours,precipitation and temperature),human activities(population intensity and GDP intensity)and other natural factors(altitude,slope and aspect),this study explored the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin of China from 1989 to 2019 through a residual method,a trend analysis,and a gravity center model,and quantitatively distinguished the relative actions of climate change and human activities on vegetation evolution based on Geodetector model.The results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI in the Yellow River Basin showed a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest.During 1981-2019,the temporal variation of vegetation NDVI showed an overall increasing trend.The gravity centers of average vegetation NDVI during the study period was distributed in Zhenyuan County,Gansu Province,and the center moved northeastwards from 1981 to 2019.During 1981-2000 and 2001-2019,the proportion of vegetation restoration areas promoted by the combined action of climate change and human activities was the largest.During the study period(1981-2019),the dominant factors influencing vegetation NDVI shifted from natural factors to human activities.These results could provide decision support for the protection and restoration of vegetation ecosystem in the Yellow River Basin.

Impacts of Park Landscape Structure on Thermal Environment Using QuickBird and Landsat Images

Urban parks composed mostly of vegetation and water bodies can effectively mitigate the urban heat island effect. Many studies have investigated the cooling effects of urban parks; however, little attention has been given to park landscape structure. Based on landscape metrics, this study has explored the influences of the park landscape structure on its inner thermal environment, taking heavily urbanized Beijing Municipality in China as the study area. Three indices, including the percentage of landscape （PLAND）, landscape shape index （LSI） and aggregation index （AI）, were used to measure the composition and configuration characteristics of the landscape components inside the parks. The indices were calculated for five landscape types being interpreted from Quickbird images. Urban thermal conditions were measured using the land surface temperature （LST） derived from Landsat TM images. The results showed that the park LST had a negative relationship with the park size, but no significant relationship was found with park shape. For the park＇s interior landscape, however, the configuration and composition characteristics of the landscape components inside the park explained 70% of the park LST variance. The area percentage of water bodies and the aggregation index of woodland were identified as the key influencing characteristics. In addition, when the composition and configuration characteristics of the park landscape components were separately considered, the configuration characteristics （LSI and A1） explained approximately 54% of the variance in park LST, which was comparable with that explained by the composition characteristics （PLAND）. Thus, this study suggested that an effective and practical way for urban cooling park design is the optimization of spatial configuration of landscape components inside the park.

Multi-step ahead short-term predictions of storm surge level using CNN and LSTM network

Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents’safety,property,and lives,particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels.Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans.In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models,artificial intelligence(AI)techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations.Convolutional neural network(CNN)and long short-term memory(LSTM)are two of the most important models among AI techniques.However,they have been scarcely utilised for surge level(SL)forecasting,and combinations of the two models are even rarer.This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information.The architectures of the CNN,LSTM,and two sequential techniques of combining the models(LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM)were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies.As a case study,11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station,Hainan Province,China,were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models.The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression(SVR)and multilayer perceptron(MLP),and the combined models outperformed the individual models(CNN and LSTM),mostly by 4%–6%.However,on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges,the accuracy was found to improve by over 10%at all forecasting steps.

Potential seismic landslide hazard and engineering effect in the Ya’an-Linzhi section of the Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor, China

The Sichuan-Tibet transportation corridor is located at the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,where the complex topography and geological conditions,developed geo-hazards have severely restricted the planning and construction of major projects.For the long-term prevention and early control of regional seismic landslides,based on analyzing seismic landslide characteristics,the Newmark model was used to carry out the potential seismic landslide hazard assessment with a 50-year beyond probability 10%.The results show that the high seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed along large active tectonic belts and deep-cut river canyons,and are significantly affected by the active tectonics.The low seismic landslide hazard is mainly distributed in the flat terrain such as the Quaternary basins,broad river valleys,and plateau planation planes.The major east-west linear projects mainly pass through five areas with high seismic landslide hazard:Luding-Kangding section,Yajiang-Xinlong(Yalong river)section,Batang-Baiyu(Jinsha river)section,Basu(Nujiang river)section,and Bomi-Linzhi(eastern Himalaya syntaxis)section.The seismic action of the Bomi-Linzhi section can also induce high-risk geo-hazard chains such as the high-level glacial lake breaks and glacial debris flows.The early prevention of seismic landslides should be strengthened in the areas with high seismic landslide hazard.

Estimation of mass elevation effect and its annual variation based on MODIS and NECP data in the Tibetan Plateau

The lofty and extensive Tibetan Plateau has significant mass elevation effect(MEE). In recent years, a great effort has been made to quantify MEE, with the recognition of intra-mountain basal elevation(MBE) as the main determinant of MEE. In this study, we improved the method of estimating MEE with MODIS and NECP data, by refining temperature laps rate, and dividing MBE plots, and then analyzed the spatio-temporal variation of MEE in the Plateau. The main conclusions include: 1) the highest average annual MEE of the plateau is as high as 11.5488°C in the southwest of the plateau, where exists a high-MEE core and MEE takes on a trend of decreasing from the core to the surrounding areas; 2) in the interior of the plateau, the maximum monthly MEE is 14.1108°C in the highest MBE plot(4934 m) in August; while the minimum monthly MEE appeared primarily in January and February; 3) in the peripheral areas of the plateau, annual mean MEE is relatively low, mostly between 3.0068°C–5.1972°C, where monthly MEE is high in January and December and low in June and July, completely different from the MEE time-series variation in the internal parts of the plateau.