Functional Causality between Oil Prices and GDP Based on Big Data

This paper examines the causal relationship between oil prices and the Gross Domestic Product(GDP)in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.The study is carried out by a data set collected quarterly,by Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority,over a period from 1974 to 2016.We seek how a change in real crude oil price affects the GDP of KSA.Based on a new technique,we treat this data in its continuous path.Precisely,we analyze the causality between these two variables,i.e.,oil prices and GDP,by using their yearly curves observed in the four quarters of each year.We discuss the causality in the sense of Granger,which requires the stationarity of the data.Thus,in the first Step,we test the stationarity by using the Monte Carlo test of a functional time series stationarity.Our main goal is treated in the second step,where we use the functional causality idea to model the co-variability between these variables.We show that the two series are not integrated;there is one causality between these two variables.All the statistical analyzes were performed using R software.

Estimation of the Stress-Strength Reliability for Exponentiated Pareto Distribution Using Median and Ranked Set Sampling Methods

In reliability analysis,the stress-strength model is often used to describe the life of a component which has a random strength(X)and is subjected to a random stress(Y).In this paper,we considered the problem of estimating the reliability𝑅𝑅=P[Y<X]when the distributions of both stress and strength are independent and follow exponentiated Pareto distribution.The maximum likelihood estimator of the stress strength reliability is calculated under simple random sample,ranked set sampling and median ranked set sampling methods.Four different reliability estimators under median ranked set sampling are derived.Two estimators are obtained when both strength and stress have an odd or an even set size.The two other estimators are obtained when the strength has an odd size and the stress has an even set size and vice versa.The performances of the suggested estimators are compared with their competitors under simple random sample via a simulation study.The simulation study revealed that the stress strength reliability estimates based on ranked set sampling and median ranked set sampling are more efficient than their competitors via simple random sample.In general,the stress strength reliability estimates based on median ranked set sampling are smaller than the corresponding estimates under ranked set sampling and simple random sample methods.Keywords:Stress-Strength model,ranked set sampling,median ranked set sampling,maximum likelihood estimation,mean square error.corresponding estimates under ranked set sampling and simple random sample methods.

Functional Nonparametric Predictions in Food Industry Using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Measurement

Functional statistics is a new technique for dealing with data thatcan be viewed as curves or images. Parallel to this approach, the Near-InfraredReflectance (NIR) spectroscopymethodology has been used in modern chemistryas a rapid, low-cost, and exact means of assessing an object’s chemicalproperties. In this research, we investigate the quality of corn and cookiedough by analyzing the spectroscopic technique using certain cutting-edgestatistical models. By analyzing spectral data and applying functional modelsto it, we could predict the chemical components of corn and cookie dough.Kernel Functional Classical Estimation (KFCE), Kernel Functional QuantileEstimation (KFQE), Kernel Functional Expectile Estimation (KFEE),Semi-Partial Linear Functional Classical Estimation (SPLFCE), Semi-PartialLinear Functional Quantile Estimation (SPLFQE), and Semi-Partial LinearFunctional Expectile Estimation (SPLFEE) are models used to accuratelyestimate the different quantities present in Corn and Cookie dough. Theselection of these functional models is based on their ability to constructa forecast region with a high level of confidence. We demonstrate that theconsidered models outperform traditional models such as the partial leastsquaresregression and the principal component regression in terms of predictionaccuracy. Furthermore, we show that the proposed models are morerobust than competing models such as SPLFQE and SPLFEE in the sensethat data heterogeneity has no effect on their efficiency.

BN-GEPSO:Learning Bayesian Network Structure Using Generalized Particle Swarm Optimization

At present Bayesian Networks(BN)are being used widely for demonstrating uncertain knowledge in many disciplines,including biology,computer science,risk analysis,service quality analysis,and business.But they suffer from the problem that when the nodes and edges increase,the structure learning difficulty increases and algorithms become inefficient.To solve this problem,heuristic optimization algorithms are used,which tend to find a near-optimal answer rather than an exact one,with particle swarm optimization(PSO)being one of them.PSO is a swarm intelligence-based algorithm having basic inspiration from flocks of birds(how they search for food).PSO is employed widely because it is easier to code,converges quickly,and can be parallelized easily.We use a recently proposed version of PSO called generalized particle swarm optimization(GEPSO)to learn bayesian network structure.We construct an initial directed acyclic graph(DAG)by using the max-min parent’s children(MMPC)algorithm and cross relative average entropy.ThisDAGis used to create a population for theGEPSO optimization procedure.Moreover,we propose a velocity update procedure to increase the efficiency of the algorithmic search process.Results of the experiments show that as the complexity of the dataset increases,our algorithm Bayesian network generalized particle swarm optimization(BN-GEPSO)outperforms the PSO algorithm in terms of the Bayesian information criterion(BIC)score.

Ranked-Set Sampling Based Distribution Free Control Chart with Application in CSTR Process

Nonparametric(distribution-free)control charts have been introduced in recent years when quality characteristics do not follow a specific distribution.When the sample selection is prohibitively expensive,we prefer ranked-set sampling over simple random sampling because ranked set sampling-based control charts outperform simple random sampling-based control charts.In this study,we proposed a nonparametric homogeneously weighted moving average based on theWilcoxon signed-rank test with ranked set sampling(NPHWMARSS)control chart for detecting shifts in the process location of a continuous and symmetric distribution.Monte Carlo simulations are used to obtain the run length characteristics to evaluate the performance of the proposed NPHWMARSS control chart.The proposed NPHWMARSS control chart’s performance is compared to that of parametric and nonparametric control charts.These control charts include the exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)control chart,Wilcoxon signed-rank with simple random sampling based the nonparametric EWMA control chart,the nonparametric EWMA sign control chart,Wilcoxon signed-rank with ranked set sampling-based the nonparametric EWMA control chart,and the homogeneously weighted moving average control charts.The findings show that the proposed NPHWMARSS control chart performs better than its competitors,particularly for the small shifts.Finally,an example is presented to demonstrate how the proposed scheme can be implemented practically.

The k Nearest Neighbors Estimator of the M-Regression in Functional Statistics

It is well known that the nonparametric estimation of the regression function is highly sensitive to the presence of even a small proportion of outliers in the data.To solve the problem of typical observations when the covariates of the nonparametric component are functional,the robust estimates for the regression parameter and regression operator are introduced.The main propose of the paper is to consider data-driven methods of selecting the number of neighbors in order to make the proposed processes fully automatic.We use thek Nearest Neighbors procedure(kNN)to construct the kernel estimator of the proposed robust model.Under some regularity conditions,we state consistency results for kNN functional estimators,which are uniform in the number of neighbors(UINN).Furthermore,a simulation study and an empirical application to a real data analysis of octane gasoline predictions are carried out to illustrate the higher predictive performances and the usefulness of the kNN approach.

Acceptance Sampling Plans with Truncated Life Tests for the Length-Biased Weighted Lomax Distribution

In this paper,we considered the Length-biased weighted Lomax distribution and constructed new acceptance sampling plans(ASPs)where the life test is assumed to be truncated at a pre-assigned time.For the new suggested ASPs,the tables of the minimum samples sizes needed to assert a specific mean life of the test units are obtained.In addition,the values of the corresponding operating characteristic function and the associated producer’s risks are calculated.Analyses of two real data sets are presented to investigate the applicability of the proposed acceptance sampling plans;one data set contains the first failure of 20 small electric carts,and the other data set contains the failure times of the air conditioning system of an airplane.Comparisons are made between the proposed acceptance sampling plans and some existing acceptance sampling plans considered in this study based on the minimum sample sizes.It is observed that the samples sizes based on the proposed acceptance sampling plans are less than their competitors considered in this study.The suggested acceptance sampling plans are recommended for practitioners in the field.

A New Class of L-Moments Based Calibration Variance Estimators

Variance is one of themost important measures of descriptive statistics and commonly used for statistical analysis.The traditional second-order central moment based variance estimation is a widely utilized methodology.However,traditional variance estimator is highly affected in the presence of extreme values.So this paper initially,proposes two classes of calibration estimators based on an adaptation of the estimators recently proposed by Koyuncu and then presents a new class of L-Moments based calibration variance estimators utilizing L-Moments characteristics(L-location,Lscale,L-CV)and auxiliary information.It is demonstrated that the proposed L-Moments based calibration variance estimators are more efficient than adapted ones.Artificial data is considered for assessing the performance of the proposed estimators.We also demonstrated an application related to apple fruit for purposes of the article.Using artificial and real data sets,percentage relative efficiency(PRE)of the proposed class of estimators with respect to adapted ones are calculated.The PRE results indicate to the superiority of the proposed class over adapted ones in the presence of extreme values.In this manner,the proposed class of estimators could be applied over an expansive range of survey sampling whenever auxiliary information is available in the presence of extreme values.

New Improved Ranked Set Sampling Designs with an Application to Real Data

This article proposes two new Ranked Set Sampling(RSS)designs for estimating the population parameters:Simple Z Ranked Set Sampling(SZRSS)and Generalized Z Ranked Set Sampling(GZRSS).These designs provide unbiased estimators for the mean of symmetric distributions.It is shown that for non-uniform symmetric distributions,the estimators of the mean under the suggested designs are more efcient than those obtained by RSS,Simple Random Sampling(SRS),extreme RSS and truncation based RSS designs.Also,the proposed RSS schemes outperform other RSS schemes and provide more efcient estimates than their competitors under imperfect rankings.The suggested mean estimators under perfect and imperfect rankings are more efcient than the linear regression estimator under SRS.Our proposed RSS designs are also extended to cover the estimation of the population median.Real data is used to examine wthe usefulness and efciency of our estimators.

Quantile Version of Mathai-Haubold Entropy of Order Statistics

Many researchers measure the uncertainty of a random variable using quantile-based entropy techniques.These techniques are useful in engineering applications and have some exceptional characteristics than their distribution function method.Considering order statistics,the key focus of this article is to propose new quantile-based Mathai-Haubold entropy and investigate its characteristics.The divergence measure of theMathai-Haubold is also considered and some of its properties are established.Further,based on order statistics,we propose the residual entropy of the quantile-based Mathai-Haubold and some of its property results are proved.The performance of the proposed quantile-based Mathai-Haubold entropy is investigated by simulation studies.Finally,a real data application is used to compare our proposed quantile-based entropy to the existing quantile entropies.The results reveal the outperformance of our proposed entropy to the other entropies.

Industrial Food Quality Analysis Using New k-Nearest-Neighbour methods

The problem of predicting continuous scalar outcomes from functional predictors has received high levels of interest in recent years in many fields,especially in the food industry.The k-nearest neighbor(k-NN)method of Near-Infrared Reflectance(NIR)analysis is practical,relatively easy to implement,and becoming one of the most popular methods for conducting food quality based on NIR data.The k-NN is often named k nearest neighbor classifier when it is used for classifying categorical variables,while it is called k-nearest neighbor regression when it is applied for predicting noncategorical variables.The objective of this paper is to use the functional Near-Infrared Reflectance(NIR)spectroscopy approach to predict some chemical components with some modern statistical models based on the kernel and k-Nearest Neighbour procedures.In this paper,three NIR spectroscopy datasets are used as examples,namely Cookie dough,sugar,and tecator data.Specifically,we propose three models for this kind of data which are Functional Nonparametric Regression,Functional Robust Regression,and Functional Relative Error Regression,with both kernel and k-NN approaches to compare between them.The experimental result shows the higher efficiency of k-NN predictor over the kernel predictor.The predictive power of the k-NN method was compared with that of the kernel method,and several real data sets were used to determine the predictive power of both methods.

L-Moments Based Calibrated Variance Estimators Using Double Stratified Sampling

Variance is one of the most vital measures of dispersion widely employed in practical aspects.A commonly used approach for variance estimation is the traditional method of moments that is strongly influenced by the presence of extreme values,and thus its results cannot be relied on.Finding momentum from Koyuncu’s recent work,the present paper focuses first on proposing two classes of variance estimators based on linear moments(L-moments),and then employing them with auxiliary data under double stratified sampling to introduce a new class of calibration variance estimators using important properties of L-moments(L-location,L-cv,L-variance).Three populations are taken into account to assess the efficiency of the new estimators.The first and second populations are concerned with artificial data,and the third populations is concerned with real data.The percentage relative efficiency of the proposed estimators over existing ones is evaluated.In the presence of extreme values,our findings depict the superiority and high efficiency of the proposed classes over traditional classes.Hence,when auxiliary data is available along with extreme values,the proposed classes of estimators may be implemented in an extensive variety of sampling surveys.

Generalized Class of Mean Estimators with Known Measures for Outliers Treatment

In estimation theory,the researchers have put their efforts to develop some estimators of population mean which may give more precise results when adopting ordinary least squares(OLS)method or robust regression techniques for estimating regression coefficients.But when the correlation is negative and the outliers are presented,the results can be distorted and the OLS-type estimators may give misleading estimates or highly biased estimates.Hence,this paper mainly focuses on such issues through the use of non-conventional measures of dispersion and a robust estimation method.Precisely,we have proposed generalized estimators by using the ancillary information of non-conventional measures of dispersion(Gini’s mean difference,Downton’s method and probabilityweighted moment)using ordinary least squares and then finally adopting the Huber M-estimation technique on the suggested estimators.The proposed estimators are investigated in the presence of outliers in both situations of negative and positive correlation between study and auxiliary variables.Theoretical comparisons and real data application are provided to show the strength of the proposed generalized estimators.It is found that the proposed generalized Huber-M-type estimators are more efficient than the suggested generalized estimators under the OLS estimation method considered in this study.The new proposed estimators will be useful in the future for data analysis and making decisions.