前震和余震的实时识别

一次大地震发生后,公众和决策者首先便会提出一个重要的问题:这是一个主震还是一个即将来临的更大地震的前震。到目前为止,科学家们只能通过对过去历史地震序列的统计给出经验性的结论,通常认为,余震序列会随着时间的推移而逐渐减小,未来发生更大地震的可能性只有百分之几。本文中,我们分析了意大利阿马特里奇-诺尔恰(Amatrice-Norcia)地震和日本熊本(Kumamoto)地震的序列余震平均大小分布,认为在一些情况下,区分一个序列是衰减的余震序列还是正在发展的即将发生更大地震的序列,是有可能的。我们同时提出了一个简单的“交通灯”分级准则来实时评估其对序列后续更大地震的敏感程度,并对58次地震进行了测试,结果显示准确率可达95%。

Fault activation and induced seismicity in geological carbon storage--Lessons learned from recent modeling studies

In the light of current concerns related to induced seismicity associated with geological carbon sequestration(GCS),this paper summarizes lessons learned from recent modeling studies on fault activation,induced seismicity,and potential for leakage associated with deep underground carbon dioxide(CO2) injection.Model simulations demonstrate that seismic events large enough to be felt by humans require brittle fault properties and continuous fault permeability allowing pressure to be distributed over a large fault patch to be ruptured at once.Heterogeneous fault properties,which are commonly encountered in faults intersecting multilayered shale/sandstone sequences,effectively reduce the likelihood of inducing felt seismicity and also effectively impede upward CO2leakage.A number of simulations show that even a sizable seismic event that could be felt may not be capable of opening a new flow path across the entire thickness of an overlying caprock and it is very unlikely to cross a system of multiple overlying caprock units.Site-specific model simulations of the In Salah CO2storage demonstration site showed that deep fractured zone responses and associated microseismicity occurred in the brittle fractured sandstone reservoir,but at a very substantial reservoir overpressure close to the magnitude of the least principal stress.We conclude by emphasizing the importance of site investigation to characterize rock properties and if at all possible to avoid brittle rock such as proximity of crystalline basement or sites in hard and brittle sedimentary sequences that are more prone to injection-induced seismicity and permanent damage.

Effects of in situ stress measurement uncertainties on assessment of predicted seismic activity and risk associated with a hypothetical industrial-scale geologic CO_2 sequestration operation

Carbon capture and storage(CCS) in geologic formations has been recognized as a promising option for reducing carbon dioxide(CO) emissions from large stationary sources.However,the pressure buildup inside the storage formation can potentially induce slip along preexisting faults,which could lead to felt seismic ground motion and also provide pathways for brine/COleakage into shallow drinking water aquifers.To assess the geomechanical stability of faults,it is of crucial importance to know the in situ state of stress.In situ stress measurements can provide some information on the stresses acting on faults but with considerable uncertainties.In this paper,we investigate how such uncertainties,as defined by the variation of stress measurements obtained within the study area,could influence the assessment of the geomechanical stability of faults and the characteristics of potential injection-induced seismic events.Our modeling study is based on a hypothetical industrial-scale carbon sequestration project assumed to be located in the Southern San Joaquin Basin in California,USA.We assess the stability on the major(25 km long) fault that bounds the sequestration site and is subjected to significant reservoir pressure changes as a result of 50 years of COinjection.We present a series of geomechanical simulations in which the resolved stresses on the fault were varied over ranges of values corresponding to various stress measurements performed around the study area.The simulation results are analyzed by a statistical approach.Our main results are that the variations in resolved stresses as defined by the range of stress measurements had a negligible effect on the prediction of the seismic risk(maximum magnitude),but an important effect on the timing,the seismicity rate(number of seismic events) and the location of seismic activity.

Hydro-mechanical fault reactivation modeling based on elasto-plasticity with embedded weakness planes

In this paper,an elasto-plastic constitutive model is employed to capture the shear failure that may occur in a rock mass presenting mechanical discontinuities,such as faults,fractures,bedding planes or other planar weak structures.The failure may occur in two modes:a sliding failure on the weak plane or an intrinsic failure of the rock mass.The rock matrix is expected to behave elastically or fail in a brittle manner,being represented by a non-associated Mohr-Coulomb behavior,while the sliding failure is represented by the evaluation of the Coulomb criterion on an explicitly defined plane.Failure may furthermore affect the hydraulic properties of the rock mass:the shearing of the weakness plane may create a transmissive fluid pathway.Verification of the mechanical submodel is conducted by comparison with an analytical solution,while the coupled hydro-mechanical behavior is validated with field data and will be applied within a model and code validation initiative.The work presented here aims at documenting the progress in code development,while accurate match of the field data with the numerical results is current work in progress.

Combined approach of poroelastic and earthquake nucleation applied to the reservoir-induced seismic activity in the Val d’Agri area,Italy

In this work,an approach is developed to study the seismicity associated with the impoundment and level changes of a water reservoir(reservoir induced seismicity e RIS).The proposed methodology features a combination of a semi-analytical poroelastic model with an earthquake nucleation approach based on rate-and-state frictional law.The combined approach was applied to the case of the Pertusillo Lake,located in the Val d’Agri area(Italy),whose large seasonal water level changes are believed to induce protracted micro-seismicity(local magnitude ML<3).Results show that the lake impoundment in 1962 could have produced up to 0.5 bar(1 bar=100 kPa)changes in Coulomb failure stress(DCFS),while the seasonal water level variation is responsible for variation up to 0.05 bar.Modeling results of the seismicity rates in 20012014 show that the observed earthquakes are well correlated with the modeled DCFS.Finally,the reason that the seismicity is only observed at southwest of the Pertusillo Lake is provided,which is likely attributed to different rock lithologies and depletion caused by significant hydrocarbon exploitation in the northeastern sector of the lake.

地震预警警报剖析:端对端地震预警系统的延迟预测

引言地震预警系统(EEW)在防震减灾中起着重要作用,是除了抗震设计(长期措施)[1]、地震预报(中短期措施)[2]和烈度速报[3]之外的另一种防震减灾手段。在过去的20 年间,算法的改进、地震台网的加密以及通讯技术的更新已经使EEW 成为可能。随着可用预警时间的持续增加,EEW 开始对更广泛的潜在终端用户变得有用[4]。