Implications of Climate Change on Streamflow of a Snow-Fed River System of the Northwest Himalaya

Air temperature and snow cover variability are sensitive indicators of climate change. This study was undertaken to forecast and quantify the potential streamflow response to climate change in the Jhelum River basin. The implications of air temperature trends （＋0.11℃decade） reported for the entire north-west Himalaya for past century and the regional warming （＋0.7℃/decade） trends of three observatories analyzed between last two decades were used for future projection of snow cover depletion and stream flow. The streamflow was simulated and validated for the year 2007-2008 using snowmelt runoff model （SRM） based on in-situ temperature and precipitation with remotely sensed snow cover area. The simulation was repeated using higher values of temperature and modified snow cover depletion curves according to the assumed future climate. Early snow cover depletion was observed in the basin in response to warmer climate. The results show that with the increase in air temperature, streamfiow pattern of Jhelum will be severely affected. Significant redistribution of streamflow was observed in both the scenarios. Higher discharge was observed during spring-summer months due to early snowmelt contribution with water deficit during monsoon months. Discharge increased by 5%-40% during the months of March to May in 2030 and 2050. The magnitude of impact of air temperature is higher in the scenario-2 based on regional warming. The inferences pertaining to change in future streamflow pattern can facilitate long term decisions and planning concerning hydro-power potential, waterresource management and flood hazard mapping in the region.

Forest fire risk assessment in parts of Northeast India using geospatial tools

Forest fire is a major cause of changes in forest structure and function. Among various floristic regions, the northeast region of India suffers maximum from the fires due to age-old practice of shifting cultivation and spread of fires from jhum fields. For proper mitigation and management, an early warning of forest fires through risk modeling is required. The study results demonstrate the potential use of remote sensing and Geographic Information System （GIS） in identifying forest fire prone areas in Manipur, southeastern part of Northeast India. Land use land cover （LULC）, vegetation type, Digital elevation model （DEM）, slope, aspect and proximity to roads and settlements, factors that influence the behavior of fire, were used to model the forest fire risk zones. Each class of the layers was given weight according to their fire inducing capability and their sensitivity to fire. Weighted sum modeling and ISODATA clustering was used to classify the fire zones. TO validate the results, Along Track Scanning Radiometer （ATSR）, the historical fire hotspots data was used to check the occurrence points and modeled forest fire locations. The forest risk zone map has 55-63% of agreement with ATSR dataset.

Snow Cover Variation and Streamflow Simulation in a Snow-fed River Basin of the Northwest Himalaya

Snowmelt is an important component of any snow-fed river system.The Jhelum River is one such transnational mountain river flowing through India and Pakistan.The basin is minimally glacierized and its discharge is largely governed by seasonal snow cover and snowmelt.Therefore,accurate estimation of seasonal snow cover dynamics and snowmeltinduced runoff is important for sustainable water resource management in the region.The present study looks into spatio-temporal variations of snow cover for past decade and stream flow simulation in the Jhelum River basin.Snow cover extent(SCE) was estimated using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor imageries.Normalized Difference Snow Index(NDSI) algorithm was used to generate multi-temporal time series snow cover maps.The results indicate large variation in snow cover distribution pattern and decreasing trend in different sub-basins of the Jhelum River.The relationship between SCE-temperature,SCE-discharge and discharge-precipitation was analyzed for different seasons and shows strong correlation.For streamflow simulation of the entire Jhelum basin Snow melt Runoff Model(SRM) used.A good correlation was observed between simulated stream flow and in-situ discharge.The monthly discharge contribution from different sub-basins to the total discharge of the Jhelum River was estimated using a modified version of runoff model based on temperature-index approach developed for small watersheds.Stream power - an indicator of the erosive capability of streams was also calculated for different sub-basins.

The changing Himalayan landscape:pine-oak forest dynamics and the supply of ecosystem services

This review summarizes the current state of knowledge on pine and oak forest dynamics in the midmontane central Himalayan forest and the ecosystem services associated with these vegetation types. Forest ecosystems play a crucial role in the livelihood of the central Himalayas as well as the adjacent plains, providing a number of tangible and intangible ecosystem services, at each stage of succession. The successional sequence starts from warm temperate grasslands, followed by early successional pine forests, mid-successional pine-oak mixed forests and eventually culminating in a late successional oak community. This successional sequence is considerably influenced by disturbances like fire, grazing, and lopping, which maintain the vegetation types in their current form and can act as potential drivers of change. Fire and grazing in grasslands and pine forests inhibit the successional process by hindering the establishment of pioneer and late successional species, respectively. Potential land-cover changes with forest succession can lead to changes in ecosystem services supply. We found that the number of ecosystem services associated with these vegetation types increase from early to late successional community. Current management approaches fail to include the dynamic nature of vegetation, which is essential for maintenance of ecosystem service supply. In conclusion, the trade-offs between ES of global （biodiversity and carbon） and local importance （fuel wood and fodder） have to be examined carefully in order to have effective conservation and management plans for the region.

Assessing impact of climate change on forest cover type shifts in Western Himalayan Eco-region

Climate is a critical factor affecting forest ecosystems and their capacity to produce goods and services. Effects of climate change on forests depend on ecosystem-specific factors including dimensions of climate （temperature, precipitation, drought, wind etc.）. Available infor- mation is not sufficient to support a quantitative assessment of the eco- logical, social and economic consequences. The present study assessed shifts in forest cover types of Western Himalayan Eco-region （700-4 500 m）. 100 randomly selected samples （75 for training and 25 for testing the model）, genetic algorithm of rule set parameters and climatic envelopes were used to assess the distribution of five prominent forest cover types （Temperate evergreen, Tropical semi-evergreen, Temperate conifer, Sub- tropical conifer, and Tropical moist deciduous forests）. Modelling was conducted for four different scenarios, current scenario, changed precipi- tation （8% increase）, changed temperature （1.07℃ increase）, and both changed temperature and precipitation. On increasing precipitation a downward shift in the temperate evergreen and tropical semi-evergreen was observed, while sub-tropical conifer and tropical moist-deciduous forests showed a slight upward shift and temperate conifer showed ＇no shift. On increasing temperatm＇e, an upward shift in all forest types was observed except sub-tropical conifer forests without significant changes. When both temperature and precipitation were changed, the actual dis- tribution was maintained and slight upward shift was observed in all the forest types except sub-tropical conifer. It is important to understand the likely impacts of the projected climate change on the forest ecosystems, so that better management and conservation strategies can be adopted for the biodiversity and forest dependent community. Knowledge of impact mechanisms also enables identification and mitigation of some of the conditions that increase vulnerability to climate change in the forest sector.

An indicator-based approach to assess village-level social and biophysical vulnerability of agriculture communities in Uttarakhand,India

With the growing recognition to myriad forms of current and future threats in the mountain agriculture systems,there is a pressing need to holistically understand the vulnerability of mountain agriculture communities.The study aims to assess the biophysical and social vulnerability of agriculture communities using an indicator-based approach for the state of Uttarakhand,India.A total of 14 indicators were used to capture biophysical vulnerability and 22 for social vulnerability profiles of15285 villages.Vulnerability analysis was done at village level with weights assigned to each indicator using Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP).The results of the study highlight the presence of very high biophysical vulnerability(0.82 ± 0.10) and high social vulnerability(0.65 ± 0.15) within the state.Based on the results,it was found that incidences of high biophysical vulnerability coincide with presence of intensified agriculture land and absence of dense forest.Higher social vulnerability scores were found in villages with an absence of local institutions(like Self Helping Groups(SHGs)),negligible infrastructure facilities and higher occupational dependence on agriculture.A contrast was observed in the vulnerability scores of villages present in the three different altitudinal zones in the study area,indicating respective vulnerability generating conditions existing in these three zones.Biophysical vulnerability was recorded to be highest in the villages falling in the lower zone and lowest in the upper zone villages;whereas,social vulnerability was found to be highest in the middle zone villages and lowest in lower zone villages.Our study aids policy makers in identifying areas for intervention to expedite agriculture adaptation planning in the state.Additionally,the adaptation programmes in the region need to be more context-specific to accommodate the differential altitudinal vulnerability profiles.

Assessing forest fragmentation in north-western Himalaya:a case study from Ranikhet forest range,Uttarakhand,India

The northwestern Himalaya harbors high levels of biodiversity due to its unique topography, climatic conditions and heterogeneity. Forest fragmentation is one of the major threats causing a decline in biodiversity in the Himalayan region. We assesses forest fragmentation and changes in land use land cover（LULC） patterns using multi-temporal satellite data over a time span of four decades（1976–2013）. Fragmentation analysis using the Landscape Fragmentation Tool（LFT） reveals a decrease in core and edge areas by 14 and 2.3 %, respectively; while an increase in non-forest, patch area and perforation area by 2.1, 0.4, and 14 %, respectively. The LULC dynamics show that the areas under dense forest and scrub forest have decreased by 2.8 % and 1.9 %, respectively; and there is an increase in open forest, crop land and fallow land area by 2.6, 1.7 and 2.1 %, respectively. The quantification of landscape heterogeneity is undertaken with the help of landscape metrics computed using FRAGSTATS at class and landscape level, showing signs of increased fragmentation. Our study provides baseline database that can support the future biodiversity conservation and sustainable forest management initiatives.

Uncertainty of soil erosion modelling using open source high resolution and aggregated DEMs

Digital Elevation Model （DEM） is one of the important parameters for soil erosion assessment. Notable uncertainties are observed in this study while using three high resolution open source DEMs. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation （RUSLE） model has been applied to analysis the assessment of soil erosion uncertainty using open source DEMs （SRTM, ASTER and CARTOSAT） and their increasing grid space （pixel size） from the actual. The study area is a part of the Narmada river basin in Madhya Pradesh state, which is located in the central part of India and the area covered 20,558 km2. The actual resolution of DEMs is 30 m and their increasing grid spaces are taken as 90, 150, 210, 270 and 330 m for this study. Vertical accuracy of DEMs has been assessed using actual heights of the sample points that have been taken considering planimetric survey based map （toposheet）. Elevations of DEMs are converted to the same vertical datum from WGS 84 to MSL （Mean Sea Level）, before the accuracy assessment and modelling. Results indicate that the accuracy of the SRTM DEM with the RMSE of 13.31, 14.51, and 18.19 m in 30, 150 and 330 m resolution respectively, is better than the ASTER and the CARTOSAT DEMs. When the grid space of the DEMs increases, the accuracy of the elevation and calculated soil erosion decreases. This study presents a potential uncertainty introduced by open source high resolution DEMs in the accuracy of the soil erosion assessment models. The research provides an analysis of errors in selecting DEMs using the original and increased grid space for soil erosion modelling.

Integrated approach for understanding spatio-temporal changes in forest resource distribution in the central Himalaya

Intense anthropogenic exploitation has altered distribution of forest resources. This change was analyzed using visual interpretation of satellite data of 1979, 1999 and 2009. Field and interactive social surveys were conducted to identify spatial trends in forest degradation and data were mapped on forest cover and land use maps. Perceptions of villagers were compiled in a pictorial representation to understand changes in forest resource distribution in central Himalaya from 1970 to 2010. For- ested areas were subject to degradation and isolation due to loss of con- necting forest stands. Species like Lantana camara and Eupatorium adenophorum invaded forest landscapes. Intensity of human pressure differed by forest type and elevation. An integrated approach is needed to monitor forest resource distribution and disturbance.

Landscape Characterization of Sariska National Park (India) and Its Surroundings

Landscape characterization gives an overall information on the status of Land Use and Land Cover （LULC）, changes in its composition and the impact of natural and human influences operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This information can be used to monitor changes in natural forest resources and protected areas, delineate potential conservation areas and can serve in effective management of ecologically fragile landscapes. In the present study, geo-spatial tools were used to characterize the landscape of Sariska National Park and its surroundings. Satellite data was used to prepare LULC maps for 1989 and 2000, change detection analysis and computation of landscape metrics. Climatic data, field records and modeling tools were used to map the potential spread of two invasive species, Prosopis juliflora and Adhatoda vasica. The results show that the forest area increased from 1989 to 2000, indicating better management practices. Landscape metrics （PAFRAC, PLADJ and AI） also support this argument. Improvements in the degraded forest can further enhance this effect. The entire reserve however is suitable for the invasion of P. juliflora and A. vasiea but is more pronounced in Boswellia serrata and Anogeissus pendula - Acacia catechu （open） forests. A detailed landscape characterization map can help forest managers to make important policy decisions concerning issues such as invasive species.

Designing a watershed scorecard as a performance evaluation tool for Ur River watershed,Tikamgarh District,Madhya Pradesh

The study is an attempt to design a watershed scorecard by identifying and evaluating selected set of indicators,such as surface water quality,ground water quality,soil condition,agriculture condition,and forest condition,which accurately reflect the health of the watershed.Ur River Watershed in Tikamgarh District,Madhya Pradesh was taken as a case study to assess the watershed health.Evaluation was done by calculating different indices for the selected set of indicators and comparing them with the National standards and guidelines.Based on the performance of each indicator,the grades were assigned to the indicators which helped in designing the watershed scorecard.The results revealed that within the watershed,the forest and soil conditions need a considerable plan for improvement in order to maintain the ecosystem whereas the surface water quality,groundwater quality and the agricultural conditions requires protection as well as enhancement in certain areas.

Bridging the energy gap of India’s residential buildings by using rooftop solar PV systems for higher energy stars

The residential-building sector in India consumes>25%of the total electricity and is the third-largest consumer of electricity;consumption increased by 26%between 2014 and 2017.India has introduced a star-labelling programme for residential buildings that is applicable for all single-and multiple-dwelling units in the country for residential purposes.The Energy Performance Index(EPI)of a building(annual energy consumption in kilowatt-hours per square metre of the building)is taken as an indicator for awarding the star label for residential buildings.For gauging the EPI status of existing buildings,the electricity consumption of residential buildings(in kWh/m2/year)is established through a case study of the residential society.Two years of electricity bills are collected for an Indian residential society located in Palam,Delhi,analysed and benchmarked with the Indian residential star-labelling programme.A wide EPI gap is observed for existing buildings for five-star energy labels.Based on existing electricity tariffs,the energy consumption of residential consumers and the Bureau of Energy Efficiency(BEE)’s proposed building ENERGY STAR labelling,a grid-integrated rooftop solar photovoltaic(PV)system is considered for achieving a higher star label.This research study establishes the potential of grid-connected rooftop solar PV systems for residential buildings in Indian cities through a case study of Delhi.Techno-economic analysis of a grid-integrated 3-kWp rooftop solar PV plant is analysed by using RETScreen software.The study establishes that an additional two stars can be achieved by existing buildings by using a grid-integrated rooftop solar PV plant.Payback for retrofit of a 3-kWp rooftop solar PV plant for Indian cites varies from 3 to 7 years.