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Model, Methodology, and Forecast: Expert Data in Assessing Political Risk in Malaysia
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作者 Llewellyn D. Howell 《International Relations and Diplomacy》 2015年第4期229-264,共36页
This study is about Malaysia's investment environment. I've undertaken its writing in part as a reflection on my own involvement with Malaysia over more than halfa century (from Malaya in 1963). The study also bri... This study is about Malaysia's investment environment. I've undertaken its writing in part as a reflection on my own involvement with Malaysia over more than halfa century (from Malaya in 1963). The study also brings to bear a structure for analysis drawn from the field of political risk analysis. I have been involved with formal (corporate) political risk assessment since 1979 and bring that experience into the discussion that follows. I have published extensively on both Malaysia and political risk. Some of these publications are cited below. Political risk assessment depends on experts on the countries that they examine. 1 don't usually refer to myself as an "expert" but rather as a specialist. However, the common reference in political risk studies is to data generated by experts. In the paper below I discuss the nature of political risk assessment, Malaysia, my own credentials that have gotten me into the political risk business, and three political risk assessment methodologies, with the results for Malaysia for each. I give emphasis to the assessment that I have done using the Economist method, for reasons that I provide below. I was able to incorporate interviews of 35 professional subjects in Malaysia in February 2014 in which they were each able to rate Malaysia using the Economist method. They were drawn from government, business, journalism, and academe. I think the results are interesting, at least. 展开更多
关键词 MALAYSIA political risk expert data ISLAM POLITICS race ETHNICITY
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