The Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Short-term Cumulative Effect of Air Particulate in Tianjin

In order to reveal the rapid increase mechanism of particulate concentration in short time,a notion of short-term cumulative effect of air particulate is defined as the significant increase of pollutant concentration in a short time under the condition of breeze,stable weather and constant emission caused by human being's activities. Subsequently,an index of short-term cumulative effect is established with air diffusive equation,and then the macro-scale meteorological situation and micro-scale factors of forming the short-term cumulative effect are discussed with the observation data. The macro-scale meteorological variables contain upper-level weather situations and surface weather situations. The micro-scale factors mainly include the boundary-layer height and boundary-layer stability. The analyses show that boundary-layer factors and weather variables have a significant influence on the short-term cumulative effect. The notion of short-term cumulative effect will play an important role in interpreting the severe pollution weather.

The Influence of Typhoon'Hongxia'on the Intrusion of the Kuroshio Current into the South China Sea

This paper uses the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport(COAWST)model to analyze the impact of typhoon‘Hongxia’on the velocity and position movement of the Kuroshio axis,the impact of typhoons on the Kuroshio intrusion into South China Sea(SCS),the corresponding water,heat,and salt fluxes,and the impact of Kuroshio water in the northeastern SCS.When typhoon‘Hongxia’passed,the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS was the most significant at 21?N latitude.In the vertical direction,the Kuroshio intrusion was strongest in the subsurface layer,leading to the most significant changes in temperature and salinity in the northeastern part of the SCS in the subsurface layer.Under the influence of the southeastern monsoon in summer,a large amount of low-salinity water accumulates at the surface of the northeastern part of the SCS,and Kuroshio intrusive water remains in the bottom and middle portions of the subsurface layer.The westward deviation of the Kuroshio axis caused by the typhoon displays a certain lag compared with the hot and salty water intrusion into the SCS approximately 7 d later.The impact of the typhoon on the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS lasts for 20 d.The typhoon caused increases in the water,heat,and salt fluxes associated with the Kuroshio intrusion into the SCS,and the contribution of the typhoon to these fluxes was as high as 40%.Under typhoon conditions,the maximum Kuroshio intrusion flux reached more than twice that before the typhoon.

Improving the Forecasts of Coastal Wind Speeds in Tianjin,China Based on the WRF Model with Machine Learning Algorithms

Characterized by sudden changes in strength,complex influencing factors,and significant impacts,the wind speed in the circum-Bohai Sea area is relatively challenging to forecast.On the western side of Bohai Bay,as the economic center of the circum-Bohai Sea,Tianjin exhibits a high demand for accurate wind forecasting.In this study,three machine learning algorithms were employed and compared as post-processing methods to correct wind speed forecasts by the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model for Tianjin.The results showed that the random forest(RF)achieved better performance in improving the forecasts because it substantially reduced the model bias at a lower computing cost,while the support vector machine(SVM)performed slightly worse(especially for stronger winds),but it required an approximately 15 times longer computing time.The back propagation(BP)neural network produced an average forecast significantly closer to the observed forecast but insufficiently reduced the RMSE.In regard to wind speed frequency forecasting,the RF method commendably corrected the forecasts of the frequency of moderate(force 3)wind speeds,while the BP method showed a desirable capability for correcting the forecasts of stronger(force>6)winds.In addition,the 10-m u and v components of wind(u_(10)and v_(10)),2-m relative humidity(RH_(2))and temperature(T_(2)),925-hPa u(u925),sea level pressure(SLP),and 500-hPa temperature(T_(500))were identified as the main factors leading to bias in wind speed forecasting by the WRF model in Tianjin,indicating the importance of local dynamical/thermodynamic processes in regulating the wind speed.This study demonstrates that the combination of numerical models and machine learning techniques has important implications for refined local wind forecasting.

The Research on Synergic Development Mechanism of Oceanic Meteorology Modernization in the Huang-Bohai Region

To study the cooperative development mechanism of ocean meteorological modernization of Huang-Bohai,we analyze the situation of ocean meteorological modernization in Huang-Bohai with the method of an new five-force model and the analyses of strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats (SWOT analysis).As the research results shown,the advantages of ocean meteorological modernization of Huang-Bohai mainly include three aspects which are ocean meteorological observation system,ocean meteorological warning information release and the construction of ocean meteorological center;the disadvantages contain that stereo-observation ability of the ocean meteorology is insufficiency,and the precision forecast technology and the cooperative development are deficiency in ocean meteorology;opportunities also include three aspects which are "The Belt and Road",and development of new technology and new warning system on meteorology disasters;threats mainly contain the main influencing weather system,the potential social competition and hazard factors.The use of different functions and combination innovation of five forces,i.e.,attractiveness,cohesiveness,radiating power,repulsiveness and affinity,could promote the cooperative development of ocean meteorological modernization in the Huang-Bohai.

Mesoscale Characteristics Analysis of a Fog Case with Complete Weather Information Derived from FengYun-4A Data

Currently,there is a lack of sufficient ocean meteorological data required for mesoscale weather predictions and fog characteristics analysis in the North China Sea.This study presents a methodology to supplement deficiencies in wind information in retrieval data from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)onboard the FengYun-4A(FY4A)satellite and analyze mesoscale weather characteristics.Atmospheric semi-geostrophic wind data were derived from semi-geostrophic theory to complete the weather elements in FY4AGIIRS retrieval data.First,the retrieval data accuracy was analyzed between L-band radiosonde data from seven stations and retrieval data from FY4AGIIRS.The errors in the temperature,humidity,and geopotential height from 850 to 400 hPa were smaller than those of other atmospheric layers.Subsequently,the mesoscale weather characteristics of a fog event were analyzed by creating a mesoscale weather map with derived weather information between 875 and 500 hPa.The analyses showed that the derived weather information might provide a new means for fog mesoscale characteristics analysis,which can help forecasters understand the spatial inhomogeneity in the visibility of fog events.

Formulation Method and Management Principle for the Safety Base-line of Atmospheric Environmental Quality

The formulation of the safety base-line for atmospheric environmental quality is not only basic needs of mankind maintaining the quality of survival environment but also concrete measures of red line system for national ecological protection. It is urgent to solve the problem in current environmental management how to draft the safety basa-line of atmospheric environmental quality. To solve this problem, the connotation of safety base-line for atmospheric environmental quality is defined firstly, and then the indexes for atmospheric importance, sensitivity and vulnerability are generalized. Moreover, formulation methods for red, yellow and green lines of the safety base-line for atmospheric environmental quality are put forward ,and corresponding division principle and management principle are put forward finally.

Analysis of Boundary Layer Structure,Turbulence,and Flux Variations before and after the Passage of a Sea Breeze Front Using Meteorological Tower Data

A detailed analysis of a sea breeze front(SBF)that penetrated inland in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration of China was conducted.We focused on the boundary layer structure,turbulence intensity,and fluxes before and after the SBF passed through two meteorological towers in the urban areas of Tianjin and Beijing,respectively.Significant changes in temperature,humidity,winds,CO_(2),and aerosol concentrations were observed as the SBF passed.Differences in these changes at the two towers mainly resulted from their distances from the ocean,boundary layer conditions,and background turbulences.As the SBF approached,a strong updraft appeared in the boundary layer,carrying near-surface aerosols aloft and forming the SBF head.This was followed by a broad downdraft,which destroyed the near-surface inversion layer and temporarily increased the surface air temperature at night.The feeder flow after the thermodynamic front was characterized by low-level jets horizontally,and downdrafts and occasional updrafts vertically.Turbulence increased significantly during the SBF’s passage,causing an increase in the standard deviation of wind components in speed.The increase in turbulence was more pronounced in a stable boundary layer compared to that in a convective boundary layer.The passage of the SBF generated more mechanical turbulences,as indicated by increased friction velocity and turbulent kinetic energy(TKE).The shear term in the TKE budget equation increased more significantly than the buoyancy term.The atmosphere shifted to a forced convective state after the SBF’s passage,with near isotropic turbulences and uniform mixing and diffusion of aerosols.Sensible heat fluxes(latent heat and CO_(2)fluxes)showed positive(negative)peaks after the SBF’s passage,primarily caused by horizontal and vertical transport of heat(water vapor and CO_(2))during its passage.This study enhances understanding of boundary layer changes,turbulences,and fluxes during the passage of SBFs over urban areas.

Study on the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and heat source characteristics of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in summer

There are many types of atmospheric heat engines in land-air systems.The accurate definition,calculation and interpretation of the efficiency of atmospheric heat engines are key to understanding energy transfer and transformation of landair systems.The atmosphere over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP)in summer can be regarded as a positive heat engine.The study of the heat engine efficiency is helpful to better understand land-air interaction and thermal-dynamic processes on the QTP.It also provides a new perspective to explain the impact of the QTP on the climate of China,East Asia and even the world.In this paper,we used MOD08 and ERA5 reanalysis data to calculate the atmospheric heat engine efficiency,surface heat source and atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer(May to September)from 2000 to 2020.The average atmospheric heat engine efficiency on the QTP in summer from 2000 to 2020 varies between 1.2%and 1.5%,which is less than 1.6%;the heat engine efficiency in summer is higher than that in June,July and August;the Qaidam Basin is the region with the highest atmospheric heat engine efficiency,followed by the western QTP.The mean surface heat source on the QTP in summer from 2000 to 2020 is 96.0 W m^(−2),the atmospheric heat source is 90.7 W m^(−2),and the release of precipitation condensation latent heat is the most important component of the atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer.There is a strong and significant positive correlation between the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and the surface heat source on the QTP in summer.The precipitation condensation latent heat is the most important component of the atmospheric heat source in summer and can reflect the precipitation process.There is a strong and significant negative correlation between the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and the atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer.

Revisiting the variations of precipitation and water vapour budget over the Tibetan Plateau

Owing to the scarcity of observation data in the western Tibetan Plateau(TP),the knowledge of precipitation changes over the entire plateau based only on the limited data in eastern TP is not reliable.Therefore,the alternative high-resolution precipitation data of the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD)are used for the comprehensive analysis of precipitation changes over the whole TP(including western and northern TP)to fill in the lack of understanding of precipitation in the western TP.Compared with observations,CMFD can broadly capture the spatial distributions and identify the temporal variabilities of precipitation over the TP.Results with CMFD data suggested that the annual precipitation over the whole TP did not show a uniform humidification trend in 1979-2018 and featured wetting and drying trends in the northern(NTP)and southern TP(STP),respectively.Additionally,the four seasonal regimes of precipitation over the northern TP(NTP,including most areas of western TP)all experienced a noticeable interdecadal shift around the late 1990s,followed by above-normal precipitation.Except for spring,the seasonal precipitation over the southern TP(STP)showed interannual variations.Spring precipitation over the STP has undergone moistening since the late 1990s,which was consistent with that over the NTP.Four different reanalysis datasets,namely JRA55,MERRA2,ERA5 and CRA40,were used to compare the water vapour budget of each boundary over the TP.The increase in spring precipitation over the NTP and STP was found to be related to the decrease in water vapour outflow from the north boundary.The interdecadal increase in summer precipitation over the NTP was mainly due to the reduction of outflow from the east boundary.Finally,the increase in autumn precipitation was related to the increase in inflow from the west boundary.

Precipitation Forecast Test Based on MODE

Abstract By testing and analyzing BJ-RUC forecast of one precipitation process, MODE was introduced. MODE could give objective comparison from position of precipitation falling zone, shape and direction, and reflect intensity difference between forecast and actual situation, which comprehensively reflected precipitation forecast performance of the model, and was close to subjective judgment thinking of forecaster.

A land use regression for predicting NO_2 and PM_(10) concentrations in different seasons in Tianjin region,China

Land use regression （LUR） model was employed to predict the spatial concentration distribution of NO2 and PM10 in the Tianjin region based on the environmental air quality monitoring data. Four multiple linear regression （MLR） equations were established based on the most significant variables for NO2 in heating season （R2 = 0.74）, and non-heating season （R2 = 0.61） in the whole study area; and PM10 in heating season （R2 = 0.72）, and non-heating season （R2 = 0.49）. Maps of spatial concentration distribution for NO2 and PM10 were obtained based on the MLR equations （resolution is 10 krn）. Intercepts of MLR equations were 0.050 （NOz, heating season）, 0.035 （NO2, non-heating season）, 0.068 （PM10, heating season）, and 0.092 （PM10, non-beating season） in the whole study area. In the central area of Tianjin region, the intercepts were 0.042 （NO2, heating season）, 0.043 （NO2, non-heating season）, 0.087 （PM10, heating season）, and 0.096 （PMl0, non-heating season）. These intercept values might imply an area＇s background concentrations. Predicted result derived from LUR model in the central area was better than that in the whole study area. Rz values increased 0.09 （heating season） and 0.18 （non-heating season） for NO2, and 0.08 （heating season） and 0.04 （non-heating season） for PMl0. In terms of R2, LUR model performed more effectively in heating season than non-heating season in the study area and gave a better result for NOz compared with PM10.

A Rapid Prediction Model of Urban Flood Inundation in a High-Risk Area Coupling Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation Approaches

Climate change has led to increasing frequency of sudden extreme heavy rainfall events in cities,resulting in great disaster losses.Therefore,in emergency management,we need to be timely in predicting urban floods.Although the existing machine learning models can quickly predict the depth of stagnant water,these models only target single points and require large amounts of measured data,which are currently lacking.Although numerical models can accurately simulate and predict such events,it takes a long time to perform the associated calculations,especially two-dimensional large-scale calculations,which cannot meet the needs of emergency management.Therefore,this article proposes a method of coupling neural networks and numerical models that can simulate and identify areas at high risk from urban floods and quickly predict the depth of water accumulation in these areas.Taking a drainage area in Tianjin Municipality,China,as an example,the results show that the simulation accuracy of this method is high,the Nash coefficient is 0.876,and the calculation time is 20 seconds.This method can quickly and accurately simulate the depth of water accumulation in high-risk areas in cities and provide technical support for urban flood emergency management.

Evolution of planetary boundary layer under different weather conditions,and its impact on aerosol concentrations

A field experiment was conducted in Tianjin, China from September 9-30, 2010, focused on the evolution of Planetary Boundary Layer （PBL） and its impact on surface air pollutants. The experiment used three remote sensing instruments, wind profile radar （WPR）, microwave radiometer （MWR） and micro-pulse lidar （MPL）, to detect the vertical profiles of winds, temperature, and aerosol backscattering coefficient and to measure the vertical profiles of surface pollutants （aerosol, CO, SO2, NOx）, and also collected sonic anemometers data from a 255-m meteorological tower. Based on these measurements, the evolution of the PBL was estimated. The averaged PBL height was about 1000-1300 m during noon/afternoon-time, and 200-300 m during night-time. The PBL height and the aerosol concentrations were anti-correlated during clear and haze conditions. The averaged maximum PBL heights were 1.08 and 1.70 km while the averaged aerosol concentrations were 52 and 17 μg/m＆3 under haze and clear sky conditions, respectively, The influence of aerosols and clouds on solar radiation was observed based on sonic anemometers data collected from the 255-m meteorological tower. The heat flux was found significantly decreased by haze （heavy pollution） or cloud, which tended to depress the development of PBL, while the repressed structure of PBL further weakened the diffusion of pollutants, leading to heavy pollution. This possible positive feedback cycle （more aerosols→lower PBL height → more aerosols） would induce an acceleration process for heavy ground pollution in megacities.

RECONSTRUCTION OF PRECIPITATION SERIES AND ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE OVER PAST 500 YEARS IN NORTHERN CHINA

It is important and necessary to get a much longer precipitation series in order to research features of drought/flood and climate change. Based on dryness and wetness grades series of 18 stations in Northern China of 533 years from 1470 to 2002, the Moving Cumulative Frequency Method （MCFM） was developed, moving average precipitation series from 1499 to 2002 were reconstructed by testing three kinds of average precipitation, and the features of ell mate change and dry and wet periods were researched by using reconstructed precipitation series in the present paper. The results showed that there were good relationship between the reconstructed precipitation series and the observation precipiration series sincc 1954 and their relative root mean-square error were below 1.89%, that the relation between reconstructed series and the dryness and wetness grades series were nonlinear and this nonlinear relation implied that reconstructed series were reliable and could became foundation data for researching evolution of the drought and flood. Analysis of climate change upon reconstructed precipitation series revealed that although drought intensity of recent dry period from mid- dle 1970s of 20th century until early 21st century was not the strongest in historical climate of Northern China, intensity and duration of wet period was a great deal decreasing and shortening respectively, climate evolve to aridification situa- tion in Northern China.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL TIMESCALES OF EVAPORATION IN NORTHERN CHINA IN THE RECENT 115 YEARS

Evaporation plays an important role in water balance on the land surface. In Northern China, the evaporation series of the recent 115 years was reconstructed on the basis of Yhornthwaite evaporation formula. The characteristics of the reconstructed series were analyzed using 10-year running mean filter, power spectrum method, and running t-text of abrupt changes on the paper. The results showed that there were remarkable interannual fluctuations with timescales of about quasi-8-year, 3-4-year, and quasi-2-year, and interdecadal oscillations with timescales of 57.5-year, quasi-23-year, and l l.5-year. Meanwhile, the abrupt changes of the evaporation series were also of interdecadal timescale. Either interannual fluctuations or interdecadal oscillations of evaporation were closely related to variations in air temperatures and precipitation.

Long-term trends in fog and boundary layer characteristics in Tianjin,China

Long-term trends in fog episodes, vertical variations of atmospheric boundary structure, and air pollutant concentrations during two different heavy fog events in the Tianjin area were analyzed. The total amount of fog has increased since 1980 due to the stability of the boundary layer and an increase of pollutant emissions. The variation in the characteristics of the boundary layer and air pollutant concentrations were significantly different between the two fog processes （fog I and fog ll）. The onset of fog I was accompanied by a temperature inversion in the low atmosphere, and the average kinetic energy showed a clear diurnal trend and vertical variation, which increased with height. The dissipation of fog I was mainly due to turbulence. However, the atmospheric stratification was not stable in the lower layer before the onset of fog If. The diurnal and vertical changes in kinetic energy were very small, in which turbulent momentum at each measurement height tended to be zero. In the dissipation process of fogⅡ, wind speed increased significantly. Surface PM2.s concentrations decreased, but the ratio of PMzs to PM10 increased from 0.66 to 0.82 until fog I dissipated. However, the concentration of PMzs did not decrease at the early stage of fog Ⅱ, but the ratio of PM2.5 to PM10 PM2.5JPM10 decreased to 0.21 when fog Ⅱ dissipated. This study showed that there was a clear difference in the evolution of pollutant concentration for different pollutants and in different developing stages during the fog events. PM2.5 concentration accumulated faster than those of SO2 and NOx, and the PM2.5 cumulative rate was greater in the mid-term of the fog process.

Aerosol optical properties and the mixing state of black carbon at a background mountainous site in Eastern China

In-situ measurements of aerosol optical properties were conducted at Mt. Huang from September 23 to October 28, 2012. Low averages of 82.2, 10.9, and 14.1 Mm-1 for scattering coefficient(σsp, neph, 550), hemispheric backscattering coefficient(σhbsp, neph, 550), and absorption coefficient(σap, 550), respectively, were obtained. Atmospheric aging process resulted in the increase of σap, 550 but the decrease of the single scattering albedo(ω550) at constant aerosol concentration. However, the proportion of non-light-absorbing components(non-BCs) was getting higher during the aging process, resulting in the increase of aerosol diameter, which also contributed to relatively higher σsp, neph, 550 and ω550. Diurnal cycles of σsp, neph, 550 and σap, 550 with high values in the morning and low values in the afternoon were observed closely related to the development of the planetary boundary layer and the mountain-valley breeze. BC mixing state, represented by the volume fraction of externally mixed BC to total BC(r), was retrieved by using the modified Mie model.The results showed r reduced from about 70% to 50% when the externally mixed non-BCs were considered. The periodical change and different diurnal patterns of r were due to the atmospheric aging and different air sources under different synoptic systems. Local biomass burning emissions were also one of the influencing factors on r. Aerosol radiative forcing for different mixing state were evaluated by a "two-layer-single-wavelength" model,showing the cooling effect of aerosols weakened with BC mixing state changing from external to core-shell mixture.