We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The ...We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The main idea is as follows. The distribution of the electric field around a thundercloud depends on the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. Quasi-static electric fields of a thundercloud decrease in those tropospheric regions where an increase of air conductivity is generated by pre-seismic activities due to emanation of radioactive gas and water into the lower atmosphere. The electric field becomes reduced in the lower troposphere, and the probability decreases of the cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes in such “contaminated” areas. Simultaneously, the electric field grows inside and above the thunderclouds, and hence, we anticipate a growth in the number of horizontal and tilted inter-cloud (or intra-cloud) (both termed as IC discharges) strokes. Spatial orientation of lightning strokes reduces vertical projection of their individual amplitudes, while the rate (median number strokes per a unit time) of discharges grows. We demonstrate that channel tilt of strokes modifies the spectral content of ELF/VLF radio noise and changes the rate of detected pulses during the earthquake preparation phase.展开更多
There has been enormous progress in the field of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes (EQs) and EQ prediction during the last three decades, and it is recently agreed that electromagnetic effects do a...There has been enormous progress in the field of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes (EQs) and EQ prediction during the last three decades, and it is recently agreed that electromagnetic effects do appear prior to an EQ. A few phenomena are well recognized as being statistically correlated with EQs as promising candidates for short-term EQ predictors: the first is ionospheric perturbation not only in the lower ionosphere as seen by subionospheric VLF (very low frequency, 3 kHz f 30 kHz)/LF (low frequency, 30 kHz f 300 kHz) propagation but also in the upper F region as detected by ionosondes, TEC (total electron content) observations, satellite observations, etc, and the second is DC earth current known as SES (Seismic electric signal). In addition to the above two physical phenomena, this review highlights the following four physical wave phenomena in ULF (ultra low frequency, frequency Hz)/ELF (extremely low frequency, 3 Hz frequency 3 kHz) ranges, including 1) ULF lithospheric radiation (i.e., direct radiation from the lithosphere), 2) ULF magnetic field depression effect (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbation), 3) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation (radiation in the atmosphere), and 4) Schumann resonance (SR) anomalies (as an indicator of the perturbations in the lower ionosphere and stratosphere). For each physical item, we will repeat the essential points and also discuss recent advances and future perspectives. For the purpose of future real EQ prediction practice, we pay attention to the statistical correlation of each phenomenon with EQs, and its predictability in terms of probability gain. Of course, all of those effects are recommended as plausible candidates for short-term EQ prediction, and they can be physically explained in terms of the unified concept of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process, so a brief description of this coupling has been carried out by using these four physical parameters though the mechanism of each phenomenon is still poorly understood. In conclusion, we have to emphasize the importance of more statistical studies for more abundant datasets sometimes with the use of AI (artificial intelligence) techniques, more case studies for huge (M greater than 7) EQ events, recommendation of critical analyses, and finally multi-parameters observation (even though it is tough work).展开更多
Induction vectors have been extensively calculated using data from 19 Japanese observatories for a dozen years preceding the huge 2011 Tohoku earthquake (EQ). At 6 observatories anomalous variations of induction vecto...Induction vectors have been extensively calculated using data from 19 Japanese observatories for a dozen years preceding the huge 2011 Tohoku earthquake (EQ). At 6 observatories anomalous variations of induction vectors were separated in the years of 2008-2010 that can be identified as middle-term precursors. These observatories are located not at the shortest distance from the EQ epicenter, that is in agreement with the widely known phenomenon of spatial selectivity of EQ precursors. The analysis of horizontal tensors reveals a conductivity anomaly under the central part of the Boso peninsula (at 30 km from Tokyo) with a WNW-ESE strike coinciding both with the Sagami trough strike and the strike of well conducting 3 km thick sediments. A joint analysis of geoelectric and tectonic data leads to a preliminary conclusion that the Boso conductivity anomaly connects two large scale conductors: Pacific sea water and a deep magma reservoir beneath a volcanic belt. Between two so different conductors an unstable transition zone can be expected which should be sensitive to changes of stress. Applying our original processing including two steps analysis and elimination of annual and monthly periods, a short-term two-month-long precursor of bay-like form was successfully separated at the observatory of Kanozan, KNZ (over the Boso anomaly) despite its strong noise. All the results were obtained with advanced multi-windows multi-rr (remote reference) robust programs with a coherency control. Dependence of the results of induction vector calculation on geomagnetic activity was carefully studied, and this dependence is relatively strong when the magnetotelluric field and noise have approximately the same magnitude. But even in this case we could identify the precursor field.展开更多
文摘We suggest a possible explanation of the influence of pre-seismic activity on the registration rate of natural ELF(extremely low frequency)/VLF(very low frequency) pulses and the changes of their characteristics. The main idea is as follows. The distribution of the electric field around a thundercloud depends on the conductivity profile of the atmosphere. Quasi-static electric fields of a thundercloud decrease in those tropospheric regions where an increase of air conductivity is generated by pre-seismic activities due to emanation of radioactive gas and water into the lower atmosphere. The electric field becomes reduced in the lower troposphere, and the probability decreases of the cloud-to-ground (CG) strokes in such “contaminated” areas. Simultaneously, the electric field grows inside and above the thunderclouds, and hence, we anticipate a growth in the number of horizontal and tilted inter-cloud (or intra-cloud) (both termed as IC discharges) strokes. Spatial orientation of lightning strokes reduces vertical projection of their individual amplitudes, while the rate (median number strokes per a unit time) of discharges grows. We demonstrate that channel tilt of strokes modifies the spectral content of ELF/VLF radio noise and changes the rate of detected pulses during the earthquake preparation phase.
文摘There has been enormous progress in the field of electromagnetic phenomena associated with earthquakes (EQs) and EQ prediction during the last three decades, and it is recently agreed that electromagnetic effects do appear prior to an EQ. A few phenomena are well recognized as being statistically correlated with EQs as promising candidates for short-term EQ predictors: the first is ionospheric perturbation not only in the lower ionosphere as seen by subionospheric VLF (very low frequency, 3 kHz f 30 kHz)/LF (low frequency, 30 kHz f 300 kHz) propagation but also in the upper F region as detected by ionosondes, TEC (total electron content) observations, satellite observations, etc, and the second is DC earth current known as SES (Seismic electric signal). In addition to the above two physical phenomena, this review highlights the following four physical wave phenomena in ULF (ultra low frequency, frequency Hz)/ELF (extremely low frequency, 3 Hz frequency 3 kHz) ranges, including 1) ULF lithospheric radiation (i.e., direct radiation from the lithosphere), 2) ULF magnetic field depression effect (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbation), 3) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation (radiation in the atmosphere), and 4) Schumann resonance (SR) anomalies (as an indicator of the perturbations in the lower ionosphere and stratosphere). For each physical item, we will repeat the essential points and also discuss recent advances and future perspectives. For the purpose of future real EQ prediction practice, we pay attention to the statistical correlation of each phenomenon with EQs, and its predictability in terms of probability gain. Of course, all of those effects are recommended as plausible candidates for short-term EQ prediction, and they can be physically explained in terms of the unified concept of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process, so a brief description of this coupling has been carried out by using these four physical parameters though the mechanism of each phenomenon is still poorly understood. In conclusion, we have to emphasize the importance of more statistical studies for more abundant datasets sometimes with the use of AI (artificial intelligence) techniques, more case studies for huge (M greater than 7) EQ events, recommendation of critical analyses, and finally multi-parameters observation (even though it is tough work).
文摘Induction vectors have been extensively calculated using data from 19 Japanese observatories for a dozen years preceding the huge 2011 Tohoku earthquake (EQ). At 6 observatories anomalous variations of induction vectors were separated in the years of 2008-2010 that can be identified as middle-term precursors. These observatories are located not at the shortest distance from the EQ epicenter, that is in agreement with the widely known phenomenon of spatial selectivity of EQ precursors. The analysis of horizontal tensors reveals a conductivity anomaly under the central part of the Boso peninsula (at 30 km from Tokyo) with a WNW-ESE strike coinciding both with the Sagami trough strike and the strike of well conducting 3 km thick sediments. A joint analysis of geoelectric and tectonic data leads to a preliminary conclusion that the Boso conductivity anomaly connects two large scale conductors: Pacific sea water and a deep magma reservoir beneath a volcanic belt. Between two so different conductors an unstable transition zone can be expected which should be sensitive to changes of stress. Applying our original processing including two steps analysis and elimination of annual and monthly periods, a short-term two-month-long precursor of bay-like form was successfully separated at the observatory of Kanozan, KNZ (over the Boso anomaly) despite its strong noise. All the results were obtained with advanced multi-windows multi-rr (remote reference) robust programs with a coherency control. Dependence of the results of induction vector calculation on geomagnetic activity was carefully studied, and this dependence is relatively strong when the magnetotelluric field and noise have approximately the same magnitude. But even in this case we could identify the precursor field.
