Hydrological Modelling of the Casamance River in Its Upstream Section (Basin at Kolda Level) to Predict Its Future States as a Function of Different Stresses

Flow records for stations in the Casamance basin are incomplete. Several gaps were noted over the 1980-2021 study period, making this study tedious. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of climate change on the flow of the Casamance watershed at Kolda. To this end, hydrological series are simulated and then extended using the GR2M rainfall-runoff model, with a monthly time step. Projected climate data are derived from a multi-model ensemble under scenarios SSP2-4.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2 by 2099) and SSP5-8.5 (scenario with additional radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2 by 2099). An analysis of the homogeneity of the rainfall data series from the Kolda station was carried out using KhronoStat software. The Casamance watershed was then delimited using ArcGIS to determine the morphometric parameters of the basin, which will be decisive for the rest of the work. Next, monthly evapotranspiration was calculated using the formula proposed by Oudin et al. This, together with rainfall and runoff, forms the input data for the model. The GR2M model was then calibrated and cross-validated using various simulations to assess its performance and robustness in the Casamance watershed. The version of the model with the calibrated parameters will make it possible to extend Casamance river flows to 2099. This simulation of future flows with GR2M shows a decrease in the flow of the Casamance at Kolda with the two scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 during the rainy period, and almost zero flows during the dry season from the period 2040-2059.

Evolution of the Physico-Chemical Quality of the Water in the Manantali Dam Reservoir from 1989 (One Year after Impoundment) to 2022

The Manantali dam is located on the Bafing River in the Kayes region of Mali. It is the main tributary of the Senegal River. The water released from the dam provides year-round access to water for drinking, irrigation and livestock watering. The Manantali dam regulates the river’s flow, generates energy and supports agricultural development in all three countries (Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal). The aim of this article is to monitor changes in the physico-chemical quality of the water in the dam’s reservoir from 1989 (one year after the dam was impounded) to 2022. In order to carry out this work, we analysed the evolution of physico-chemical parameters in Stations 1 and 3 of the dam, on the basis of fluctuating water levels in the reservoir. The results obtained show a similarity in the parameters measured at the two stations, except for iron content, which is higher at Station 3. The average pH is weakly basic (7.44 at Station 1 and 7.29 at Station 3) and the average water temperature is between 26.5°C at Station 1 and 26.2°C at Station 3. The average conductivity of the water at Station 1 is 38.8 μS/cm and 39.8 μS/cm at Station 3, attesting to low mineralization of the water. The oxygen content of 5.75 mg/L at Station 1 and 5.00 mg/L at Station 3 shows good oxygenation of the water, which is favorable for the development of most fish and aquatic plant species. Ammonium levels of 0.02 mg/L at Station 1 and 0.06 mg/L at Station 3 show that the water is not contaminated. In addition, the Water Quality Index (WQI) was calculated, showing excellent water quality at Station 1 and good quality at Station 3. Overall, the results obtained show that the water is of good quality, enabling the authorities of the Organization for the Development of the Senegal River (OMVS) to achieve their development objectives.