Congratulatory Letter from Professor Garth Shelton of Wits University,South Africa to President Ji Bingxuan of the Chinese Association for International Understanding

HE Ji Bingxuan President of the Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU)15 Wanshou Road,Beijing,China10 October 2021Your Excellency,CONGRATULATIONS-40 YEAR CELEBRATION OF THE POUNDING OF THE CHINESE ASSOCIATION POR INTERNATIONAL UNDERSTANDING(CAFIU)On behalf of the East Asia Project(EAP)in the Department of International Relations,University of the Witwatersrand,Johannesburg,South Africa,I wish to convey to you sincere congratulations and best wishes in celebration of the founding of the Chinese Association for International Understanding(CAFIU)40years ago.

The Relationship between Corporate Real Estate and Economic Cycle

Studies on the relationship between corporate real estate(CRE)and economic cycles are very thin,especially from developing countries,such as South Africa.More,in practice,most firms hardly dedicate enough resources to CRE divisions.This leads to that management not fully maximises the wealth of shareholders.This study uses multi-linear regression to test how GDP,interest rate,and total corporate costs react to changes in CRE.The sample is made up of blue chip firms listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange(JSE).The results reveal mixed bag solutions-for certain firms;GDP,interest rate,and corporate costs are statistically significant and vice versa.More,this analysis can be replicated to other similar industries and indices around the world.

Firm Value Variation Illustrated by Income and Real Option Analysis

The valuation of real estate plays a major role in property market.In the valuation industry there are various models used to estimate the value.The industry has made use of traditional models;however these models do not account for flexibility in property.This article uses income and real options valuations to capture values of South African REITs.The results illustrate that the real option valuation produces a higher value of property than the traditional models.The findings have shown that the traditional models undervalue the REITs.And these findings are consisted with prior studies done in different geographical markets.Finally,one recommends that the industry practitioners should adopt real option valuation in valuing real estate.

Risk Neutral Options Based on Maximum Profits

This study uses risk-neutral-probability(RNP,thereafter)to forecast future excepted profits in copper,gold,and platinum group metals.The RNP measures are advantageous where ones want to compare values of the same asset in different states.At the heart of this study is using future profits based on a binomial tree,which has RNPs.Overall,RNP profits converge more to the future-normal profits.And,the robustness results based on the vector autoregressive(hereon,VAR)model reveal that the profits react differently to different shocks stages from revenues,risk-free interest rates and profits.The findings of this study apply to copper,gold,and platinum mining around the globe.

Option to Expand a Vacant Land Option

Pricing options(calls and puts)in general is a complex issue,given the assumptions that one has to make and sometime markets are asymmetric.McKean-Samuelson(1965)is the first model that prices a perpetual American option on a vacant land.Years later,Black and Scholes(1973)create a formula to price a call option on corporate liabilities.In the context of real estate discipline,it seems that there is no formula that prices a call on commercial building,specifically office building on a vacant land.The contribution of this study is exactly responding to the latter statement.The results illustrate that the formula of a commercial building on a vacant land is simply two call options—similar to option straddle.

The Most Sensitive Exchange Rates for Tin Based on the Major Commodity Production Countries

This paper examines the most sensitive exchange rates for tin price based on China and Indonesia that these are the world’s first and second largest tin producers.The export data from these countries have shared over 75 per cent of global tin supply that relates significantly with the Indonesian exchange rate based on the Canonical Correlation Analysis(CCA).Furthermore,the future tin prices are forecasted using the weighted least squares(WLS)model.This model is selected since it takes into account the non-normally distribution and heteroscedasticity of the original data.Overall,this result suggests that the Indonesian exchange rate is superior in predicting the future tin price rather than the Chinese exchange rate while China is the largest tin producer in the world.This is caused that the Chinese exchange rate cannot appreciate to other currency baskets.

CAFIU and My Study of China

Early one morning in 1993 I was working quietly in my office preparing for a lecture. I usually work with my door closed, but on that particular day for no special reason my door was open. Suddenly Ms Du Yan put her head into my office asking for directions. I got up from my desk

More Than Just a Tool

Language learning brings a genuine and lively encounter with cultural heritage Coming to study Zulu language in South Africa was a new goal for me after I successfully defended my Ph.D.dissertation and gained a teaching position in Beijing Foreign Studies University.I had always heard that language proficiency and area studies should go together if research on international relations is meant to be original and explorative.Every year。