WMO北京区域培训中心国际培训二十周年

中国气象局气象干部培训学院(简称干部学院)于2002年被世界气象组织(WMO)认定为WMO北京区域培训中心。20年来,干部学院持续发挥着气象对外合作交流的窗口和平台作用,共举办113期国际培训班,累计培训了超过8000名学员,惠及WMO六大区协168个国家和地区。

WMO旗阵广场:向世界致敬——南京信息工程大学校园文化巡礼之五

南京信息工程大学素有“中国气象人才摇篮”的美誉，同时也是全球最活跃的气象人才培训中心。

THE CHRONICLE OF EVENTS OF THE ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE FROM 1968 TO 2017

Years Significant EventsTC Chair/Vice Chair1968UN ESCAP at its 24th Session at Canberra in April 1968,WMO Executive Committee at its 20th Session in 1968 endorsed the establishment of the Typhoon Committee in accordance with the Statute.The Typhoon Committee was organized by the Governments of China;Hong Kong,China;Japan;Republic of Korea;Laos;the Philippines and Thailand as 7 founder Members,with ESCAP and WMO as ex-officio Members.Vice-Adm Sanit Vesa Rajananda,Thailand/Dr.Roman L.Kintanar Philippines.

OVERVIEW ON THE PROGRESS OF WORKING GROUP ON METEOROLOGY OF ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE IN THE RECENT 10 YEARS

This paper reviews the major achievements of the Working Group on Meteorology(WGM) of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee since its establishment in 2004, especially in tropical cyclone observational research and scientific experiments, tropical cyclone monitoring and forecasting technologies, seasonal prediction and climate change assessment for the past decade. The progress illustrates the great value of the Committee and WGM in monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones in the region and the improvement of disaster prevention and reduction capabilities.

REVIEW AND PROSPECTS OF HYDROLOGICAL COMPONENT DEVELOPMENT OF ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE

Hydrological Component has been one of three essential parts of ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee.The Working Group on Hydrology(WGH)established at TC 33rd Session in 2000 is the first working group among three basic components of the Committee,which has been repeatedly recognized as the most active component in the Committee who has integrated conducted successfully a number of cooperation projects and integrated actions among Members.In the past decade,WGH has implemented wide range activities under the framework of Strategic Plan of the Committee.The achievement of those cooperation projects played very important roles in promoting the capacity building on hydrological monitoring,forecasting and early warning among Members.This paper introduced the Term of Reference for WGH and its high priorities,and summarized the activities conducted in recent decade.The paper also reviewed the progresses in TC Members on hydrological observation and monitoring network,hydrological data collection and transmission,hydrological information and forecasting,and establishment of flood forecasting system.The paper also pointed out the development direction and the area to be enhanced for hydrological component in future,including:(1)application of QPE/QPF in flood forecasting and establishment of the coupled hydro-meteorological modeling;(2)development of impact-based,risk-based and community-based flood forecasting and warning system,including storm surge,urban flood,sediment disaster(flash flood,landslide and mudflow);and(3)application of internet of things(IOT),big data,cloud computing,and mobile internet in flood monitoring,forecasting and early warning,and better response,particularly in flood inundation mapping and QPE/QPF products application.

REVIEW OF ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE DEVELOPMENT IN PAST 50 YEARS

The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee(TC) is an intergovernmental regional organization, established by Governments of ESCAP Member Countries(or Member Territory) under the joint auspices of ESCAP and WMO in 1968 to minimize the typhoon-related disaster risk reduction and damage mitigation in the region and to facilities closer regional and international cooperation. As of 2017, there are 14 Members. The Typhoon Committee has been repeatedly recognized as an outstanding regional body who has integrated the actions and plans of the meteorological, hydrological, and disaster risk reduction(DRR) components to produce meaningful results. Its work is primarily centered on reduction the damage caused by typhoons and floods, and focus on the following: 1) review the progress made in the various fields of typhoon damage prevention; 2) recommend the participating governments on plans and measures the improvement of community preparedness and disaster prevention; 3) promote the interested Governments and other interested organization for the coordination of research on typhoons; and 4) provide financial and technical support for plans and programs upon request. The paper reviewed the development of the Committee in the past 50 years in the aspects of establishment; membership, secretariat and programme components; strategic plan; and cooperative mechanism. The paper also states the areas of technical activities to be enhanced in the region and the proposals to enhance the Typhoon Committee's regional and international collaboration mechanism on typhoon-related disaster risk reduction and damage mitigation.

联合国全民早期预警行动计划进展

气候灾难造成流离失所的人数是战争的3倍,全球人口的一半已经处于危险区。作为应对气候变化的有效适应措施和低垂成果,联合国全民早期预警行动计划在《联合国气候变化框架公约》第27次缔约方大会上发布。该计划将通过四大支柱——灾害风险知识与管理、观测监测与预报、预警发布与传播、备灾与响应,在未来5年(2023—2027年)内,向地球上每个人提供预警,以抵御日益极端和危险的天气。预警的防灾减灾社会效益明显,发展中国家在预警发布系统上花费数亿元就可以避免每年十倍于投入的灾害损失。建议加强法制规划,理顺预警发布各环节,提升预警发布的及时性、精准性和权威性;加大对亚洲多灾种警报系统(GMAS-A)支持力度,将GMAS-A打造成联合国全民早期预警计划的示范项目,充分发挥GMAS-A在“一带一路”沿线国家及全球防灾减灾中的作用;同时在《联合国气候变化框架公约》下主动设置“预警服务发展中国家”谈判议题,输出中国最佳实践与经验,推动构建人类命运共同体。

The Inter-Annual Variability of Rainfall Onset and Its Implication on Crop Planting in Selected East Africa Countries

The inter-annual variability of rainfall onset and crop replanting in East Africa (EA) was assessed using daily estimated rainfall data from climate hazard group infrared precipitation (CHIRPS Ver2.0) and monthly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) indices [Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at NINO3.4 region] from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The data covered a period of 40 years from1981 to 2020. The methods of cumulative of daily mean rainfall, percentage of onset date departure (PODD), Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, student t-test, and correlation were applied in the analysis. The results showed that early onset with dry spell (WDS) consideration frequently occurs in Uganda between the first and second dekads of September, while late rainfall onset WDS occurs in the first and second dekads of December over central and Northern Kenya as well as in the Northeastern highlands, parts of the northern coast and unimodal regions in Tanzania. Rainfall onset with no dry spell (WnDS) portrayed an average of 10 days before the occurrence of true onset WDS, with maximum onset departure days (ODD) above 30 days across the Rift Valley area in Kenya and the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. The high chance of minimum ODD is seen over entire Uganda and the area around Lake Victoria. However, few regions, such as Nakuru (Kenya) Gulu and Kibale (Uganda), and Gitega (Burundi), revealed a slight positive linear trend while others showed negative trend. Significant positive patterns for correlation between onset WDS and SST indices (IOD and NINO 3.4) were discovered in Northern and Northeastern Kenya, as well as areas along the Indian Ocean (over Tanzania’s Northern Coast). Inter-annual relationship between onset dates WDS and IOD (NINO3.4) indices exhibits a high correlation coefficient r = 0.23 (r = 0.48) in Uganda and r = 0.44 (r = 0.36) in Kenya. On the other hand, a negative correlation was revealed over Burundi and Tanzania (over a unimodal region). A high percentage of PODD was observed, ranging from 40% to 70% over the Rift Valley in Kenya and at the Northeastern highlands in Tanzania. However, a strong PODD above 70% was observed over Tanga and the Northern Pwani Region in Tanzania. These findings will help farmers to understand the appropriate time for crop planting, as well as help other socio-economic activities that strongly depend on rainfall.

发展中国家气候灾害及应对能力调查分析

通过一个自主设计的调查问卷的抽样调查,对发展中国家气候灾害的主要状况及开展的应对工作进行了分析,以了解发展中国家的气候灾害及应对能力。调查结果表明,洪涝、干旱和海平面上升是受访发展中国家面临的3种最主要的气候灾害,具有发生频繁、影响范围广且造成损失大的特征。大多数接受调查的发展中国家尚未建立完备的灾害管理体系,加强对气候灾害的监测预警是其应对极端气候事件、降低灾害风险的首要任务之一。帮助其他发展中国家建立并完善监测预警系统应是中国应对气候变化南南合作的重要领域之一。

华南一次飑线升尺度增长过程的机制分析

利用中国自动站与CMORPH降水产品融合的逐时降水量0.1°×0.1°网格数据集、1°×1°NCEP再分析气象资料、常规观测资料和高分辨率的WRF数值模拟资料对2016年4月13日前后发生在华南的一次飑线升尺度增长过程进行了动力和热力环境条件分析。飑线形成前,对流层高层有急流,华南位于急流入口区右侧,有利于高空辐散。高空有弱槽存在,并且温度槽落后于高度槽,有利于槽发展。近地面上有低压系统控制,并且有风场的辐合,加强了抬升运动。模拟的结果表明:WRF模式成功模拟了此次飑线升尺度过程,飑线的降水量和落区较为接近实况。与以往的飑线过程相比,此次飑线过程中,升尺度阶段有效位能较初始对流阶段要高,但是整个华南地区对流有效位能始终处于中低水平。除了天气尺度系统的影响,多种中尺条件的配合对这次飑线升尺度发展很有利。低层的垂直风切变、低位涡和较高温度递减率是触发条件,提供了一定的不稳定条件和抬升条件。低层风场转向加强,垂直风切变的方向改变,充足的水汽供应和后部入流的加深加剧了不稳定和垂直抬升运动,是促进β中尺度飑线升尺度的重要条件。冷池在升尺度阶段不明显,但冷池对维持成熟阶段的α中尺度飑线结构很重要。

北半球西风带准周期性转换的理论分析——初步探讨北极与中纬度及副热带能量相互输送的机制

本文运用准地转模式,通过等值投影方法,将等值线转换为向量场结构,探讨西风带高低指数周期性转换的机制,结果表明:(1)仅有位能转化所引起的水平涡动输送,可能产生大振幅的行星波,但不会产生西风带的断裂;(2)在波流相互作用下,平均纬向风速与基波波幅满足分岔条件时,会出现西风带断裂现象,即当满足这个分岔条件时,更有利于北极与中纬度及副热带能量的相互输送。如北极冷空气的跨纬度输送会导致东亚极端冷事件的发生;同时,也能维持西风带的高低指数循环。

PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF TYPHOON MORAKOT(2009) DURING ITS LANDING PROCESS

NCEP GFS(Global Forecast System)analytical data(available 4 times per day),satellite cloud image data and real-time observations of path and intensity of Typhoon Morakot are employed to investigate the variation of synoptic dynamics in its intensity and structure before and after the landing.This study intends to offer some hints for the forecast of intensity and structure of typhoons.Results show that in the tangential direction,the averaged asymmetry amplitude of wind on the radius of a large-value center of the low-level wind can be used as an important parameter for diagnosing the intensity of typhoons.Besides,the maximum of the upper dry potential vorticity in Morakot’s center tends to extend downward along the intensive gradient of tangential wind situated on the inner side of a large-value center of the low-level tangential wind.Additionally,the radial advection of the tangential wind determines the variation of tangential wind in conjunction with the vertical transmission of the tangential wind,the inertial centrifugal force and the Coriolis force.These four items are dominant in the motion equation of tangential wind based on a cylindrical coordinate without the effects of friction and turbulence.Moreover,the low-level convergence center of the typhoon has a tendency of shifting and developing along the intensive gradient of the tangential wind in the tangential direction.

地形强迫对偶极型阻塞形势的影响分析

本研究运用多尺度变换和摄动法简化具有地形强迫的正压准地转涡度方程,得到带有扰动项的非线性Shr?dinger方程,在此基础上,采用孤立子直接微扰理论研究地形强迫对偶极型阻塞结构的作用。研究表明:地形强迫对偶极型阻塞发展具有增强和持续作用,其增长率与大地形山体的斜率成正比。

Editorial: Special issue on marine instruments

Our blue planet is made of atmosphere,hydrosphere,lithosphere and biosphere,these four layers are interdependence and interaction,which effect the environment and life on the planet.In these four layers,the hydrosphere is mainly associated with the ocean which is crucial to the human survival and development,due to the difference heat capacities be-

全球气候变化对水文和水资源的影响

一、前言气候在变化,基本上可以这么说而不会有什么反驳。虽然其变化机制和大小程度尚有不确定性,但至少人们对稳定气候的传统理解显然已不能持久维持。作为水文分析的输入,气候资料本身是一个最终受太阳能驱动的十分确定的过程的产品,这个过程受各种时间尺度上的强迫因子的全球及局地的影响。有些强迫作用有周期性,有些则通过在大气、海洋、生物圈、低温圈和岩石圈内部或之间的反馈而发生作用。另一组强迫因子,包括火山和流星活动。

热带旋风的社会经济影响

无论就丧生人数还是就被破坏的经济资源来说,热带旋风是造成天然灾害的主要原因。世界气象组织(WMO)正在协助全世界受影响最大的五十个国家,帮助它们提高预报风暴路径的能力并组织全国警报服务系统。

CAUSATION ANALYSIS OF THE DIRECT CLIMATE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOL ON EAST-ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON

A regional climate model coupled with an aerosol model is employed to numerically simulate the direct climate effects of the anthropogenic aerosol emitted in South Asia and China in the East Asian summer monsoon during1988 to 2009.Based on the data of the numerical simulation,composite analysis and correlation analysis are used to make diagnostic study of climate dynamics.Results show that the month of maximum emission of the mean column burden of the anthropogenic aerosol in the main emission areas of South Asia is opposite in phase to that in China.Summer is the season of maximum emission amount in China,but the emission amounts are more in South Asia in spring and winter.On the whole,the mean column burden of the anthropogenic aerosol in China is relatively high compared with that in South Asia.The trend of distribution of aerosol is SW-NE in China,and Sichuan Basin is the emission center of aerosol.The effect of negative short wave radiative forcing alters the gradient of pressure between land and sea,weakening the development of East Asian summer monsoon over the northern part of Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.We also discuss the feedback effect of East-Asian summer monsoon which is changed by the anthropogenic aerosol on the concentration and distribution of aerosol in China.

强迫耗散对偶极型阻塞的影响分析

本研究运用多尺度变换和摄动法简化具有耗散效应的正压准地转涡度方程,得到带有扰动项的非线性Shr?dinger方程,在此基础上,分析了非线性Shr?dinger孤立子的拓扑结构,并采用孤立子直接微扰理论研究强迫耗散对大气阻塞结构的作用。结果表明:1) 在没有耗散的情况下,当基本纬向速度和孤立子波幅满足不同的条件时,定常Shr?dinger孤立子具有两种形态,当基本纬向速度较小而孤立子波幅较大时,流场具有偶极子型的孤立波,表征低指数的经向环流;当基本纬向速度较大而孤立子波幅较小时,流场是退化的中心结构,表征高指数的纬向环流。2) 耗散效应对大气阻塞发展具有抑制作用,这种抑制作用随时间的负指数函数变化。

Diagnosis of the Medium-Range Variation of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific during a Meiyu Process by Three-Dimensional E-P Flux

In this paper, using the daily grid data (2.5 × 2.5) of the ECMWF / WMO, we have computed respectively the three-dimensional wave activity flux in the stages of pre-onset, prevailing and post ending of Meiyu from 1 to 31 July 1982. The potential vorticity field is taken as the physical quantity relating the wave activity flux to the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific. It is found that the three-dimensional wave activity flux is a powerful means for diagnosis of the variation of the subtropical high over the Western Pacific: The region of the subtropical high is just the confluence area of wave energy, whose changes in intensity and range decide the variation of the subtropical high. The confluence of wave energy comes from the monsoon flow in low latitudes, the Meiyu rain belts in middle latitudes and the heating fields on the eastern side of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The relation between these sources and the subtropical high displays the self-adjusting mechanism among members of East-Asia summer monsoon.

Variations of δ^(18)O in Precipitation along Vapor Transport Paths

Three sampling cross sections along the south path starting from the Tropics through the vapor passage in the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau to the middle-low reaches of the Yangtze River, the north path from West China, via North China, to Japan under the westerlies, and the plateau path from South Asia over the Himalayas to the northern Tibetan Plateau, are set up, based on the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency)/WMO global survey network and sampling sites on the Tibetan Plateau. The variations, and the relationship with precipitation and temperature, of the δ18 O in precipitation along the three cross sections are analyzed and compared. Along the south path, the seasonal differences of mean δ18O in precipitation are small at the stations located in the Tropics, but increase markedly from Bangkok towards the north, with the δ18O in the rainy season smaller than in,the dry season. The δ18O values in precipitation fluctuate on the whole, which shows that there are different vapor sources. Along the north path, the seasonal differences of the mean δ18O in precipitation for the stations in the west of Zhengzhou are all greater than in the east of Zhengzhou. During the cold half of the year, the mean δ18O in precipitation reaches its minimum at Urumqi with the lowest temperature due to the wide, cold high pressure over Mongolia, then increases gradually with longitude, and remains at roughly the same level at the stations eastward from Zhengzhou. During the warm half of the year, the δ18O values in precipitation are lower in the east than in the west, markedly influenced by the summer monsoon over East Asia. Along the plateau path, the mean δ18O values in precipitation in the rainy season are correspondingly high in the southern parts of the Indian subcontinent, and then decrease gradually with latitude. A sharp depletion of the stable isotopic compositions in precipitation takes place due to the very strong rainout of the stable isotopic compositions in vapor in the process of lifting over the southern slope of the Himalayas. The low level of the δ18O in precipitation is from Nyalam to the Tanggula Mountains during the rainy season, but δ18O increases persistently with increasing latitude from the Tanggula Mountains to the northern Tibetan Plateau because of the replenishment of vapor with relatively heavy stable isotopic compositions originating from the inner plateau. During the dry season, the mean δ18O values in precipitation basically decrease along the path from the south to the north. Generally, the mean δ18O in precipitation during the rainy season is lower than in the dry season for the regions controlled by the monsoons over South Asia or the plateau, and opposite for the regions without a monsoon or with a weak monsoon.