Current Situation and Countermeasures of Weather Modification Ground Operation in Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang Province is the granary of China,which plays a key role in ensuring the national food security.The total grain output of Heilongjiang Province has ranked first in China for 12 consecutive years.In the past four years,it has been stable at more than 75 billion kg,a record high.One bowl of rice in every nine bowls in China comes from Heilongjiang.The work of weather modification and disaster prevention and reduction is an important measure to ensure the development of agricultural production,and is the key of meteorological services for agriculture.Based on the actual work of artificial weather modification in Heilongjiang Province,this paper analyzes the current situation of ground operation in Heilongjiang Province,studies and judges the safety production,and puts forward reasonable countermeasures.The purpose is to improve the ground operation ability of artificial weather modification and provide safe and scientific services for agricultural production.

Aircraft Observation and Simulation of the Supercooled Liquid Water Layer in a Warm Conveyor Belt over North China

This paper studied a snow event over North China on 21 February 2017,using aircraft in-situ data,a Lagrangian analysis tool,and WRF simulations with different microphysical schemes to investigate the supercooled layer of warm conveyor belts(WCBs).Based on the aircraft data,we found a fine vertical structure within clouds in the WCB and highlighted a 1-2 km thin supercooled liquid water layer with a maximum Liquid Water Content(LWC) exceeding0.5 g kg^(-1) during the vertical aircraft observation.Although the main features of thermodynamic profiles were essentially captured by both modeling schemes,the microphysical quantities exhibited large diversity with different microphysics schemes.The conventional Morrison two-moment scheme showed remarkable agreement with in-situ observations,both in terms of the thermodynamic structure and the supercooled liquid water layer.However,the microphysical structure of the WCB clouds,in terms of LWC and IWC,was not apparent in HUJI fast bin scheme.To reduce such uncertainty,future work may focus on improving the representation of microphysics in bin schemes with in-situ data and using similar assumptions for all schemes to isolate the impact of physics.

Analysis on Triggered Mechanism of a Hail Weather in Tianjin

[ Objective] The research aimed to analyze triggered mechanism of a hail weather in Tianjin on July 10,2011. [Method] Using Micaps data, automatic meteorological observation data, sounding data and Doppler radar data, a hail process rarely happened in Daliutan Village, Yangli- uqing Town, Xiqing District, Tianjin City on July 10, 2011 was analyzed. Triggered mechanism of the hail weather was discussed. [ Result] The hail weather was generated by super cell which was triggered by sea breeze front and ground convergence interaction. Upper situation was in front of the forward tilted trough at bottom rear of the cold vortex, which was favorable for development of the strong convective weather. On ground map, water vapor transportation existed in easterly airflow at bottom rear of the high-pressure. Meanwhile, convergence zone also existed. It was wet lay- er over 0 ℃layer, and strong ascending motion existed, which was favorable for formation and development of the hail. Sea breeze front brought rich moisture, weak cold air and lifting effect when it moved toward inland from ocean, to make up for adverse conditions at low and middle layers. It could trigger a severely convective weather when moved to surface convergence zone. Doppler weather radar could monitor entire hail evolution process, [ Conclusion] The research had obvious guidance significance for judging hail process.

WIND SHEAR IDENTIFICATION WITH THE RETRIEVED WIND OF DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR

Wind shear reflects that the wind field is not uniform, which is one of the primary factors which make the retrieval of the wind field difficult. Based on volume velocity process(VVP) wind field retrieval technique, the intensity of wind shear is identified in this paper. After analyzing the traditional techniques that rely on the difference of radial velocity to identify wind shear, a fixed difference among radial velocities that may cause false identification in a uniform wind field was found. Because of the non-uniformity in wind shear areas, the difference of retrieved results between surrounding analysis volumes can be used as a measurement to show how strong the wind shear is. According to the analysis of a severe convective weather process that occurred in Guangzhou, it can be found that the areas of wind shear appeared with the strength significantly larger than in other regions and the magnitude generally larger than4.5 m/(s·km). Besides, by comparing the variation of wind shear strength during the convection, it can be found that new cells will be more likely to generate when the strength is above 3.0 m/(s·km). Therefore, the analysis of strong wind shear's movement and development is helpful to forecasting severe convections.

Numerical Experiments of Three Boundary Layer Parameterization Schemes on Simulation Results of Low-vortex Rainstorm Weather in Langfang Region

Using mesoscale numerical model WRFV3.7,simulation tests of a low-vortex rainstorm were carried out in Langfang area,and simulation results of three boundary layer parameterization schemes(MYJ,YSU,ACM2)were contrasted.The results showed that the rainstorm in Langfang area had better dynamic condition.By the influence of northeast cold vortex,cold vortex at high altitude cooperated with the surface wind speed convergence,which provided better dynamic condition for strong convective rainfall.Three boundary layer parameterization schemes all simulated surface wind speed convergence of rainstorm center.Simulation results of 24-h rainfall distribution showed that the simulation of YSU scheme was better than ACM2 and MYJ.The simulation results of flow field and temperature field also verified that YSU scheme was better than other schemes.

Reanalysis on Hail Suppression Weather Prewarning of the "8.21" Rare Hail in Shenyang

[Objective]The research aimed to analyze hail weather during 18：30-19：30 on August 21,2011.[Method]Based on NCEP 6 h reanalysis data,Micaps data and FY-2 satellite cloud image,weather situation field,meteorological element field and satellite cloud image of the hail during 18：30-19：30 on August 21,2011 were reanalyzed.Weather causes of the hail and characteristics of the satellite cloud image were discussed.We summed up how to conduct prewarning analysis of the hail suppression weather from live weather data and numerical forecast products.[Result]In occurrence and development process of the hail weather,cold vortex at 500 hPa was background weather system.850 hPa warm tongue and ground wind shear were essential conditions for forming strong convective hail cloud.Early weather chart was analyzed.It could analyze occurrence reason of the weather from mechanism aspect of the weather system,and issue weather prewarning as early as possible.Numerical forecast products were used to analyze meteorological element field.It could further analyze and accurately predict probability,time and range of the hail occurrence.Infrared satellite cloud image was more accurate for monitoring strong convective hail cloud,which could intuitively predict occurrence of the hail weather.[Conclusion]The research offered some hail suppression prewarning experiences for the future similar hail weather.

Assessment of future Antarctic amplification of surface temperature change under different Scenarios from CMIP6

Global warming may result in increased polar amplification,but future temperature changes under different climate change scenarios have not been systematically investigated over Antarctica.An index of Antarctic amplification(AnA)is defined,and the annual and seasonal variations of Antarctic mean temperature are examined from projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)under scenarios SSP119,SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585.AnA occurs under all scenarios,and is strongest in the austral summer and autumn,with an AnA index greater than 1.40.Although the warming over Antarctica accelerates with increased anthropogenic forcing,the magnitude of AnA is greatest in SSP126 instead of in SSP585,which may be affected by strong ocean heat uptake in high forcing scenario.Moreover,future AnA shows seasonal difference and regional difference.AnA is most conspicuous in the East Antarctic sector,with the amplification occurring under all scenarios and in all seasons,especially in austral summer when the AnA index is greater than 1.50,and the weakest signal appears in austral winter.Differently,the AnA over West Antarctica is strongest in austral autumn.Under SSP585,the temperature increase over the Antarctic Peninsula exceeds 0.5℃when the global average warming increases from 1.5℃to 2.0℃above preindustrial levels,except in the austral summer,and the AnA index in this region is strong in the austral autumn and winter.The projections suggest that the warming rate under different scenarios might make a large difference to the future AnA.

Microphysical Processes of a Stratiform Precipitation Event over Eastern China:Analysis Using Micro Rain Radar data

Data collected using the micro rain radar(MRR) situated in Jinan city, eastern China, were used to explore the altitudinal and temporal evolution of rainfall microphysical characteristics, and to analyze the bright band(BB) characteristics and hydrometeor classification. Specifically, a low-intensity and stable stratiform precipitation event that occurred from 0000 to0550 UTC 15 February 2015 and featured a BB was studied. During this event, the rainfall intensity was less than 2 mm h-1 at a height of 300 m, which was above the radar site level, so the errors caused by the vertical air motion could be ignored.The freezing height from the radiosonde matched well with the top of the BB observed by the MRR. It was also found that the number of 0.5–1 mm diameter drops showed no noticeable variation below the BB. The maximum fall velocity and the maximum gradient fall velocity(GFV) of the raindrops appeared at the bottom of the BB. Meanwhile, a method that uses the GFV and reflectivity to identify the altitude and the thickness of the BB was established, with which the MRR can provide a reliable and real-time estimation of the 0?C isotherm. The droplet fall velocity was used to classify the types of snow crystals above the BB. In the first 20 min of the selected precipitation event, graupel prevailed above the BB; and at an altitude of2000 m, graupel also dominated in the first 250 min. After 150 min, the existence of graupel and dendritic crystals with water droplets above the BB was inferred.

Atypical Occlusion Process Caused by the Merger of a Sea-breeze Front and Gust Front

An atypical occlusion process that occurred in North China on 14 July 2011 is studied based on both observations and a real-data Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model simulation. The results show that this atypical occlusion process was significantly different from the traditional, synoptic-scale occlusion process that occurs within extratropical cyclones. It was caused by the merger of two cold-type mesoscale fronts. One of the fronts developed from the gust front of convective storms, while the other was a sea-breeze front. As the two fronts moved towards each other, the warm air between them was squeezed and separated from the surface. An atypical occluded front was formed when the two fronts merged, with the warm air forced aloft. This kind of occlusion is termed a ＂merger＂ process, different from the well-known ＂catch-up＂ and ＂wrap-up＂ processes. Moreover, local convection was found to be enhanced during the merger process, with severe convective weather produced in the merger area.

Rainfall Microphysical Properties of Landfalling Typhoon Yagi(201814)Based on the Observations of Micro Rain Radar and Cloud Radar in Shandong,China

The development and evolution of precipitation microphysical parameters and the vertical structure characteristics associated with Typhoon Yagi(201814)are analyzed in the city of Jinan,Shandong Province based primarily on the observations of a micro rain radar(MRR),a cloud radar,and a disdrometer.The precipitation process is further subdivided into four types:convective,stratiform,mixed,and light precipitation according to the ground disdrometer data,which is in agreement with the vertical profile of the radar reflectivity detected by the MRR.Vertical winds may be the main source of MRR retrieval error during convective precipitation.Convective precipitation has the shortest duration but makes the largest contribution to the cumulative precipitation.Collision-coalescence is the main microphysical process of stratiform precipitation and light precipitation below the bright band observed by the MRR.It is worth noting that as Typhoon Yagi(201814)transformed into an extratropical cyclone,its raindrop size distributions no longer had the characteristics of maritime precipitation,but become more typical of the characteristic of continental precipitation,which represents a very different raindrop size distribution from that which is normally observed in a landfalling typhoon.

On the Mechanism of a Terrain-Influenced Snow Burst Event during Midwinter in Northeast China

Short-duration snow bursts with heavy snow represent one type of hazardous weather in winter which can be easily missed by the winter weather warnings but often results in great hazards.In this paper,the mechanism for the occurrence of such events was investigated with the aid of a localized terrain-influenced snow burst event in Northeast China.The snow burst was produced by an eastward-moving cold-frontal snowband which encountered the downstream complex terrain of the Changbai Mountains and intensified.To ascertain the role of orography on the snow burst,numerical experiments,together with a parallel sensitivity experiment removing Changbai Mountains,were performed to attempt to distinguish the contributions of cold-frontal system and orographic effects to produce the heavy snow.Diagnosis showed that without the influence of Changbai Mountains,the release of conditional instability(CI)and inertial instability(II)within a weak frontogenetical environment was responsible for the snowband maintenance.Orographic effects played important roles in enhancing the snowband and increasing the snowfall intensities.The enhancement mechanism was related to the interactions of the cold-frontal snowband and the topography.On the one hand,orographic frontogenesis and persistent ascent,created by orographic gravity waves over the terrain,greatly enhanced the orographic lifting.The intensification of the lifting promoted the release of CI and thus enhanced the snowfall.On the other hand,pre-existing orographic instabilities were released due to the passing of the cold-frontal snowband,which could also serve to intensify the snowband over terrain and thus increase the snowfall.

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED SHEAR LINES OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH RAINSTORMS IN THE BOREAL SUMMER HALF-YEAR

In this paper,European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis-Interim(ERAInterim)data and daily precipitation data in China from May to October during 1981-2016 are used to study the climatic characteristics of the meridionally oriented shear lines(MSLs)over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The relationship between the MSL and rainstorms in the eastern TP and neighboring areas of the TP during the boreal summer half-year is also investigated.An objective method,which uses a combination of three parameters,i.e.the zonal shear of the meridional wind,the relative vorticity and the zero line of meridional wind,is adopted to identify the shear line.The results show that there are two high-occurrence centers of MSL.One is over the central TP(near 90°E)and the other is over the steep slope area of the eastern TP.Fewer MSLs are found along the Yarlung Zangbo River over the western TP and the southern Tibet.There are averagely 42.2 MSL days in each boreal summer half-year.The number of MSL days reaches the maximum of 62 in 2014 and the minimum of 22 in 2006.July and October witness the maximum of 10.2 MSL days/year and the minimum of 4.2 MSL days/year,respectively.The annual number of the MSL days shows periodicities of 2-4 and 4-6 years,which is quite similar to those of the MSL rainstorm days.In the neighboring areas of the TP,nearly56%of the MSLs lead to rainstorms,and nearly 40%of rainstorms are caused by the MSLs,indicating a close relationship between the MSLs and rainstorms in this region.

Investigating Lightning Characteristics through a Supercell Storm by Comprehensive Coordinated Observations over North China

Electrical characteristics of an isolated supercell storm observed on 13 June 2014 over Beijing were investigated using lightning data obtained from the Beijing Lightning Network,radar reflectivity,and hydrometeor retrievals during the 6-h lifetime.Positive cloud-to-ground(+CG)lightning took a high percentage of CG lightning.Before and during a hail event,+CG lightning was more frequent than negative cloud-to-ground(-CG)lightning,except that+CG lightning took a high percentage at the beginning and in the dissipating stage.After the hail event ended,-CG lightning dominated and reached its maximum value.An analysis of hydrometeors retrieved by X-band polarimetric radar revealed that the discharge concentrated in the convective region with graupel particles and hailstones,whereas graupel,snow and ice crystals in the stratiform region.Lightning radiation sources were located mainly in the convective region,some of which were distributed along a gradient of radar reflectivity from the convective region to the stratiform region.The indication is that the supercell demonstrated an inverted tripole charge structure before the hail event,which converted to a normal tripole structure after the hail event.

Extreme Temperature Change of the Last 110 Years in Changchun,Northeast China

In China and East Asia,the long-term continuous observational data at daily resolution are insufficient,and thus there is a lack of good understanding of the extreme climate variation over the last 100 years plus.In this study,the extreme temperature indices defined by ETCCDI(Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices)and local meteorological administrations were analyzed for Changchun City,Northeast China,by using the daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and daily minimum temperature(Tmin)over 1909?2018.The results showed that extreme cold events,such as cold days,cold nights,frost days,icing days,and low temperature days,decreased significantly at rates of?0.41 d(10 yr)^?1,?1.45 d(10 yr)^?1,?2.28 d(10 yr)^?1,?1.16 d(10 yr)?1 and?1.90 d(10 yr)^?1,respectively.Warm nights increased significantly at a rate of 1.71 d(10 yr)^?1,but warm days decreased slightly and the number of high temperature days decreased at a rate of?0.20 d(10 yr)?1.The frequency of cold surge events increased significantly at a rate of 0.25 d(10 yr)^?1,occurring mainly from the mid-1950s to late-1980s.The average Tmax,average Tmin and extreme Tmin increased at rates of 0.09℃(10 yr)^?1,0.36℃(10 yr)^?1 and 0.54℃(10 yr)^?1,respectively;and extreme Tmax decreased significantly at a rate of?0.17℃(10 yr)^?1.In 1909?2018,1951?2018 and 1979?2018,the indices related to cold events decreased,while the trends of the indices related to warm events were different for different periods.

Observations and Modeling of Ice Water Content in a Mixed-Phase Cloud System

The ice water content(IWC) distribution in a mixed-phase cloud system was investigated using Cloud-Sat data,aircraft measurements,and the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model.Simulated precipitation and IWC were in general agreement with rain gauge,sat-ellite,and aircraft observations.The cloud case was char-acterized by a predominant cold layer and high IWC throughout the cloud-development and precipitation stages.The CloudSat-retrieved products suggested that the IWC was distributed from 4.0 to 8.0 km,with the maximum values(up to 0.5 g m-3) at 5.0-6.0 km at the earlymature stage of cloud development.High IWC(up to 0.8 g m-3) was also detected by airborne probes at 4.2 and 3.6 km at the late-mature stage.The WRF model simulation re-vealed that the predominant riming facilitated rapid ac-cumulation of high IWC at 3.0-6.0 km.

Study on the Variation Characteristic of Precipitation in Liaoning Province in Recent 48 Years

[Objective] The aim was to study the variation characteristic of precipitation in Liaoning Province in recent 48 years. [Method] According to monthly precipitation data from meteorological observation station in Liaoning Province from 1961 to 2008, the variation characteristic of precipitation in Liaoning was analyzed by means of one-dimensional linear estimation, 5-year moving average and wavelet transform method in our paper. [Result] Annual mean precipitation in Liaoning from 1961 to 2008 showed decrease trend on the whole, and there was great difference in variation in each season; there was more rainfall in 1960s, 1970s and 1990s and less rainfall in 1980s; spring precipitation showed increase trend on the whole, with great annual variation, while precipitation in other seasons reduced; the main fluctuation period of precipitation was 7-9 years which included the shorter variation period of 2-3 years. [Conclusion] The study could provide scientific references for the rational utilization of water resources, disaster prevention and reduction in Liaoning Province.

Vertical Evolution of Boundary Layer Volatile Organic Compounds in Summer over the North China Plain and the Differences with Winter

The vertical observation of volatile organic compounds(VOCs)is an important means to clarify the mechanisms of ozone formation.To explore the vertical evolution of VOCs in summer,a field campaign using a tethered balloon during summer photochemical pollution was conducted in Shijiazhuang from 8 June to 3 July 2019.A total of 192 samples were collected,23 vertical profiles were obtained,and the concentrations of 87 VOCs were measured.The range of the total VOC concentration was 41-48 ppbv below 600 m.It then slightly increased above 600 m,and rose to 58±52 ppbv at 1000 m.The proportion of alkanes increased with height,while the proportions of alkenes,halohydrocarbons and acetylene decreased.The proportion of aromatics remained almost unchanged.A comparison with the results of a winter field campaign during 8-16 January 2019 showed that the concentrations of all VOCs in winter except for halohydrocarbons were more than twice those in summer.Alkanes accounted for the same proportion in winter and summer.Alkenes,aromatics,and acetylene accounted for higher proportions in winter,while halohydrocarbons accounted for a higher proportion in summer.There were five VOC sources in the vertical direction.The proportions of gasoline vehicular emissions+industrial sources and coal burning were higher in winter.The proportions of biogenic sources+long-range transport,solvent usage,and diesel vehicular emissions were higher in summer.From the surface to 1000 m,the proportion of gasoline vehicular emissions+industrial sources gradually increased.

Effects of degradation succession of alpine wetland on soil organic carbon and total nitrogen in the Yellow River source zone,west China

Wetland is an important carbon pool,and the degradation of wetlands causes the loss of organic carbon and total nitrogen.This study aims to explore how wetland degradation succession affects soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(TN)contents in alpine wetland.A field survey of 180 soilsampling profiles was conducted in an alpine wetland that has been classified into three degradation succession stages.The SOC and TN contents of soil layers from 0 to 200 cm depth were studied,including their distribution characteristics and the relationship between microtopography.The results showed that SOC and TN of different degradation succession gradients followed the ranked order of Non Degradation(ND)>Light Degradation(LD)>Heavy Degradation(HD).SWC was positively correlated with SOC and TN(p<0.05).As the degree of degradation succession worsened,SOC and TN became more sensitive to the SWC.Microtopography was closely related to the degree of wetland degradation succession,SWC,SOC and TN,especially in the topsoil(0-30 cm).This result showed that SWC was an important indicator of SOC/TN in alpine wetland.It is highly recommended to strengthen water injection into the wetland as a means of effective restoration to reverse alpine meadow back to marsh alpine wetland.

Macro-and Micro-physical Characteristics of Different Parts of Mixed Convective-stratiform Clouds and Differences in Their Responses to Seeding

This study investigates the cloud macro-and micro-physical characteristics in the convective and stratiform regions and their different responses to the seeding for mixed convective-stratiform clouds that occurred in Shandong province on 21 May 2018,based on the observations from the aircraft,the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership(NPP)satellite,and the high-resolution Himawari-8(H8)satellite.The aircraft observations show that convection was deeper and radar echoes were significantly enhanced with higher tops in response to seeding in the convective region.This is linked with the conversion of supercooled liquid droplets to ice crystals with released latent heat,resulting in strengthened updrafts,enhanced radar echoes,higher cloud tops,and more and larger precipitation particles.In contrast,in the stratiform cloud region,after the Silver Iodide(AgI)seeding,the radar echoes become significantly weaker at heights close to the seeding layer,with the echo tops lowered by 1.4–1.7 km.In addition,a hollow structure appears at the height of 6.2–7.8 km with a depth of about 1.6 km and a diameter of about 5.5 km,and features such as icing seeding tracks appear.These suggest that the transformation between droplets and ice particles was accelerated by the seeding in the stratiform part.The NPP and H8 satellites also show that convective activity was stronger in the convective region after seeding;while in the stratiform region,a cloud seeding track with a width of 1–3 km appears 10 km downstream of the seeding layer 15 minutes after the AgI seeding,which moves along the wind direction as width increases.

Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model

In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.