The accuracy of eight tropical cyclone(TC) intensity guidance techniques currently used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pacific seasons has been evaluated within...The accuracy of eight tropical cyclone(TC) intensity guidance techniques currently used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pacific seasons has been evaluated within two intensity phases:intensification and decay.In the intensification stage,the majority of the techniques indicated > 60% probabilities of the errors of forecast 12-h intensity change within ±5 ms-1 from the 12- to 60-h forecast intervals,while none had capability to predict the rapid intensification and most of them had a bias toward smaller 48-h intensity changes at the beginning of the stage.The majority of the guidance techniques showed > 70% probabilities of the errors of forecast 12-h intensity change within ±5 ms-1 through 60 h during the decay phase,and the techniques had little capability of predicting rapid decay events.It is found that the evaluated statistical models had difficulty in predicting the strongest cases of decay 36 h after peak intensity,whereas the dynamical and official forecasts were seemingly able to produce some large decay rates.展开更多
The overall statistics of the accuracy of eight statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pac...The overall statistics of the accuracy of eight statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pacific typhoon seasons were evaluated herein. Skill scores which were calculated based on contingency tables show that the forecast skill of the selected techniques did not persistently decline with the increasing forecast time. The probabilities of the forecast intensity inaccuracy being within 6 m s-1 and greater than 15 m s-1 were examined in the study. Additionally, the majority of the forecasts were featured by underintensity forecasts in 2008, while some guidance showed pronounced overforecasts at relatively long forecast intervals in 2009. The forecast biases and overintensity forecast errors at typhoon dissipation were verified as well.展开更多
文摘The accuracy of eight tropical cyclone(TC) intensity guidance techniques currently used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pacific seasons has been evaluated within two intensity phases:intensification and decay.In the intensification stage,the majority of the techniques indicated > 60% probabilities of the errors of forecast 12-h intensity change within ±5 ms-1 from the 12- to 60-h forecast intervals,while none had capability to predict the rapid intensification and most of them had a bias toward smaller 48-h intensity changes at the beginning of the stage.The majority of the guidance techniques showed > 70% probabilities of the errors of forecast 12-h intensity change within ±5 ms-1 through 60 h during the decay phase,and the techniques had little capability of predicting rapid decay events.It is found that the evaluated statistical models had difficulty in predicting the strongest cases of decay 36 h after peak intensity,whereas the dynamical and official forecasts were seemingly able to produce some large decay rates.
基金National Basic Research Program of China(2009CB421505)the Shanghai Typhoon Foundation(2009ST09)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(40775060 and 40921160381)the Program of China Meteorological Administration under Grants GYHY201006008 and GYHY200906002.
文摘The overall statistics of the accuracy of eight statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pacific typhoon seasons were evaluated herein. Skill scores which were calculated based on contingency tables show that the forecast skill of the selected techniques did not persistently decline with the increasing forecast time. The probabilities of the forecast intensity inaccuracy being within 6 m s-1 and greater than 15 m s-1 were examined in the study. Additionally, the majority of the forecasts were featured by underintensity forecasts in 2008, while some guidance showed pronounced overforecasts at relatively long forecast intervals in 2009. The forecast biases and overintensity forecast errors at typhoon dissipation were verified as well.
