Analysis on Changes of Basic Climatic Elements and Extreme Events in Xinjiang, China during 1961-2010

By using the observation data from 89 weather stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2010, this paper analyzed the basic climatic elements including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, water vapor pressure, and dust storm in the entire Xinjiang and the subareas: North Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains, and South Xinjiang. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2010 the annual and seasonal mean temperatures in the entire Xinjiang show an increasing trend with the increasing rate rising from south to north. The increasing rate of annual mean minimum temperature is over twice more than that of the annual mean maximum temperature, contributing much to the increase in the annual averages. The magnitude of the decrease rate of low-temperature days is larger than the increase rate of high-temperature days. The increase of warm days and warm nights and the decrease of cold days and cold nights further reveal that the temperature increasing in Xinjiang is higher. In addition, annual and seasonal rainfalls have been increasing. South Xinjiang experiences higher increase in rainfall amounts than North Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountains. Annual rainy days, longest consecutive rainy days, the daily maximum precipitation and extreme precipitation events, annual torrential rain days and amount, annual blizzard days and amount, all show an increasing trend, corresponding to the increasing in annual mean water vapor pressure. This result shows that the humidity has increased with temperature increasing in the past 50 years. The decrease in annual mean wind speed and gale days lessen the impact of dust storm, sandstorm, and floating dust events. The increase in annual rainy days is the cause of the decrease in annual sunshine duration, while the increase in spring sunshine duration corresponds with the decrease in dust weather. Therefore, the increase in precipitation indicators, the decrease in gales and dust weather, and the increasing in sunshine duration in spring will be beneficial to crops growth.

Effect of Climate Variability and Human Activities on Runoff in the Jinghe River Basin, Northwest China

Much attention has recently been focused on the effects of climate variability and human activities on the runoff. In this study, we analyzed 56-yr(1957–2012) runoff change and patterns in the Jinghe River Basin(JRB) in the arid region of northwest China. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve(PRDCC) were used to identify change trend and abrupt change points in the annual runoff. It was found that the runoff in the JRB has periodically fluctuated in the past 56 yr. Abrupt change point in annual runoff was identified in the JRB, which occurred in the years around 1964 and 1996 dividing the long-term hydrologic series into a natural period(1957 – 1964) and a climate and man-induced period(1965 – 1996 and 1997 – 2012). In the 1965 – 1996 period, human activities were the main factor that decreased runoff with contribution of 88.9%, while climate variability only accounted for 11.1%. However,the impact of climate variability has been increased from 11.1% to 47.5% during 1997 – 2012, showing that runoff in JRB is more sensitive to climate variability during global warming. This study distinguishes theeffect of climate variability from human activities on runoff, which can do duty for a reference for regional water resources assessment and management.

Estimation of Summer Rainfall over an Arid Area using AMSR-E Measurements:A Case Study in Xinjiang,China

Rainfall estimate in arid region using passive microwave remote sensing techniques has been a complex issue for some time.The main reason for this difficulty is that the high and variable emissivity of land surfaces greatly aggravates the complexity of the signatures from the rain cloud.The Xinjiang area,located in the northwest of China,holds all the typical characteristics of arid climate.A rainfall algorithm has been developed for this region by using the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System(AMSR-E) measurements.The algorithm attempts to use all 12 chan-nels on the AMSR-E instrument and a two-step method calibrated over 11 days of hourly rain-gauge data.First,Stepwise Discriminant Analysis(SDA) used to optimally estimate rain pixels based on all 12 channels,although only three channels were found to be necessary.Next,a rain predicator scattering index was used to estimate rain rates.A linear relationship between the rain rates and the scattering index above the threshold of 3.0K was constructed with a simple approximately linear function.The estimated rain rates were compared with the rain-gauge data used to calibrate the method,and a good relationship was found with a root-mean-square error of 2.1mm/h.The numerical calculations and comparisons show that the algorithm works well in the Xinjiang area.

Trends and abrupt changes in surface vapor content over Tarim Basin during the last 50 years

The surface vapor content has a close correlation with the generation of precipitation. Based on the atmospheric circulation data and surface vapor content data from 37 weather stations across the Tarim Basin dur- ing 1961-2010, the paper analyzed the vapor variation trend, period, abrupt changes and their causes. The results show that the increase trend of surface vapor content over the Tarim Basin mostly conforms with the average trend coefficient of 0.48. There were 3 centers displaying a trend of high vapor increase and 3 centers displaying a low vapor increase. These centers were distributed in strips and blocks across the basin from northeast to southwest. Notable inter-decadal variations in annual and seasonal vapor contents occurred in the Tarim Basin during the 50 years of the study period, with more vapor after the mid-1980s and less vapor in the 1960s and the 1970s. The significant increase in vapor content in the 50 year period occurred mostly in the 1980s and the 1990s. The in- creasing trend across the four seasons was strongest in summer, reaching 0.43, and weakest in spring. Great variations existed between the spring trend and the annual, summer, autumn and winter trends. During the 50-year study period, there are distinguishable periods of 4-6 years and 8-10 years in which the annual and seasonal vapor contents varied alternately between low and high concentrations. The annual vapor content and that of the four individual seasons all changed abruptly in about the mid-1980s （a〈0.05）. The west wind circulation, Tibetan Plateau circulation and the annual mean temperatures of the Tarim Basin are the main factors that influenced the surface vapor content over the study area, of which the Tibetan Plateau circulation may be the most important one.

Diurnal dynamics of soil respiration and the influencing factors for three land-cover types in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert,China

Knowledge of soil respiration and the influencing factors in desert ecosystems is essential to understanding carbon dynamics and responses of biotic and abiotic processes in soils to climate change. In this study, soil respiration rate（R_s） for three land-cover types（shifting sandy land, sandy land with straw checkerboard barriers, and shelter forest land） in the hinterland of the Taklimakan Desert was measured in May 2015 using an automated soil CO_2 flux system. The effects of soil temperature（T_s） and soil water content（W_s） on R_s were also analyzed. The results showed that R_s values in shifting sandy land, sandy land with straw checkerboard barriers, and shelter forest land were all low and exhibited obvious diurnal fluctuations. The establishment of straw checkerboard barriers in sandy land had no significant effect on R_s, while the establishment of shelterbelts significantly increased R_s. Shifting sandy land and sandy land with straw checkerboard barriers were carbon sinks at night and early morning and were carbon sources in the daytime, while shelter forest land always acted as a carbon source during the whole day. The synergistic effect of T_s and W_s could better explain the diurnal dynamics in R_s than single factor. In shifting sandy land and sandy land with straw checkerboard barriers, W_s was identified as a limiting factor influencing the diurnal dynamics of R_s. Furthermore, a relatively strong hysteresis loop existed between R_s and T_s. In contrast, in shelter forest land, R_s was significantly influenced by T_s, and a relatively weaker hysteresis loop existed between R_s and W_s.

ENSO Features, Dynamics, and Teleconnections to East Asian Climate as Simulated in CAMS-CSM

This study evaluates the performance of CAMS-CSM(the climate system model of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences) in simulating the features, dynamics, and teleconnections to East Asian climate of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO). In general, fundamental features of ENSO, such as its dominant patterns and phase-locking features, are reproduced well. The two types of El Ni?o are also represented, in terms of their spatial distributions and mutual independency. However, the skewed feature is missed in the model and the simulation of ENSO is extremely strong, which is found—based on Bjerknes index assessment—to be caused by underestimation of the shortwave damping effect. Besides, the modeled ENSO exhibits a regular oscillation with a period shorter than observed. By utilizing the Wyrtki index, it is suggested that this periodicity bias results from an overly quick phase transition induced by feedback from the thermocline and zonal advection. In addition to internal dynamics of ENSO,its external precursors—such as the North Pacific Oscillation with its accompanying seasonal footprinting mechanism, and the Indian Ocean Dipole with its 1-yr lead correlation with ENSO—are reproduced well by the model. Furthermore, with respect to the impacts of ENSO on the East Asian summer monsoon, although the anomalous Philippine anticyclone is reproduced in the post-El Ni?o summer, it exhibits an eastward shift compared with observation;and as a consequence, the observed flooding of the Yangtze River basin is poorly represented, with unrealistic air–sea interaction over the South China Sea being the likely physical origin of this bias. The response of wintertime lowertropospheric circulation to ENSO is simulated well, in spite of an underestimation of temperature anomalies in central China. This study highlights the dynamic processes that are key for the simulation of ENSO, which could shed some light on improving this model in the future.

Validation of MODIS and Deep Blue aerosol optical depth retrievals in an arid/semi-arid region of northwest China

The global aerosol optical depth （AOD or r） has been retrieved using the Dark Target algorithm （the C004 and C005 products） and the Deep Blue algorithm （DB product）. Few validations have thus far been performed in arid/semi-arid regions, especially in northwest China. The ground-based remote sensing of AOD from sun photometers at four sites in Xinjiang during the years 2002-2003 is used to validate aerosol products, including C004, C005 and DB of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS）. The results show substantial improvement in the C005 aerosol product over the C004 product. The average correlation coefficient of regression with ground measurements increased from 0.59 to 0.69, and the average offset decreased from 0.28 to 0.13. The slopes of the linear regressions tended to be close to unity. The percentage of AODs falling within the retrieval errors of 30% （or Δτ = ±0.1 ± 0.2τ） increased from 16.1% to 45.6%. The best retrievals are obtained over an oasis region, whereas the worst are obtained over urban areas. Both the MODIS C004 and C005 products overestimate AOD, which is likely related to improper assumptions of the aerosol model and of the estimation of surface reflectance. An encouraging result has been derived with regard to validation of the DB AOD. Overall, the average offset, slope and correlation coefficient of regression with sun-photometer measurements are -0.04, 0.88 and 0.85, respectively. Approximately 73% of the DB AOD retrievals fall within the expected error of 30%. Underestimation of the AOD by the DB products is observed. The aerosol model and estimations of surface reflectance in this region require further improvements.