Analysis of Relationship between Meteorological Conditions and Respiratory Diseases in Xuzhou

Based on daily data of influenza-like cases from four sentinel hospitals as well as meteorological data in Xuzhou from October 2005 to May 2011,number of patients with respiratory diseases in Xuzhou was analyzed,and then relationship between meteorological factors and number of patients with respiratory diseases was discussed. The prediction model of number of patients with respiratory diseases in each month was established to forecast number of patients with respiratory diseases using meteorological data. The results show that people suffered from respiratory diseases more frequently in January and from June to September in Xuzhou. Meteorological factors correlated highly with number of patients with respiratory diseases are different due to the difference in climatic characteristics among various seasons. The prediction model could obtain good effect.

Development of Management and Application System of Basic Meteorological Data

Based on convenience and safety of historical data application,B/S mode is used instead of database management structure of C/S mode,and it can not only combine database and network,but also realize the safe use of historical data online. High-level programming language is used to develop a online management and application system of historical meteorological data based on B/S mode. System data import function can import ground report file sequence of Xuzhou( including five county-level stations) into the database,construct Oracle database of Xuzhou and the five stations since 1953,and establish data tables of time,day,ten-day,monthly,quarterly and annual historical data,weather information and so forth. Management software of database server is established to realize instruction-level management and scheduling of database and a balanced distribution of resources among users. At the same time,a Web-based management application interface is set up to meet users' needs to retrieve a variety of repositories,and it provides statistical query of time,day,ten-day,monthly,quarterly and annual historical data and climate data for each meteorological element,thereby meeting the needs of meteorological research and all sectors of society for statistical query of meteorological data.

Study on the Distribution Characteristics of Thunderstorms in Xuzhou City

[Objective]The study aimed to discuss the distribution characteristics of thunderstorms in Xuzhou City.[Method]Based on thunderstorm observation data during 1978-2008 provided by Jiuli Mountain station,beginning and ending months,days,duration,frequency,hours and direction of thunderstorms in Xuzhou were analyzed.[Result]From 1978 to 2008,there were obvious annual variations in thunderstorm days in Xuzhou City.Thunderstorm days were more in July and August compared with other months,while there were no thunderstorms in January and December.Thunderstorms began earliest in February and ended latest in November,with a long span.The longest duration of thunderstorms reached259 d,accounting for 71%of total days of a year.The maximum frequency of thunderstorms(64)appeared in 1995,and the maximum hours of thunderstorms(4 048 h)appeared in 2003.Thunderstorms occurred most frequently in the southwest,followed by SE and NW.[Conclusion]The research could provide scientific references for the prevention and control of lightning strokes in Xuzhou in future.

Primary Discussion on the Characteristics and Forecasting Methods of Dense Fog in Xuzhou City

[Objective]The study aimed to discuss the characteristics and forecasting methods of dense fog in Xuzhou City.[Method]Based on the data of dense fog in Xuzhou City from 1960 to 2009,the characteristics and forming conditions of dense fog in the region were analyzed,and then its forecasting methods were introduced,finally corresponding disaster prevention measures were put forward.[Result]Dense fog might appear in each season,its frequency of occurrence was the highest in December,namely 16.4%;it was the lowest in June(2.2%),and the fog lasted for a short time and was thin.Heavy fog occurred more frequently in winter half year than summer half year,and the frequency of occurrence from October to next February was about 66.7%.In addition,dense fog mostly generated from late midnight to morning,while it appeared less in the afternoon.It shows that dense fog in Xuzhou City is mainly radiation fog instead of advection fog,but the two kinds of fog appeared simultaneously sometimes.[Conclusion]The research could provide scientific forecasting methods for the precise prediction of dense fog in Xuzhou City.

Analysis on the Reasons for Consecutive Severe Droughts in Autumn and Winter in Xuzhou in 2008

[Objective] The aim was to study the reasons for consecutive severe droughts in autumn and winter. [Method] By dint of precipitation in the observatory station and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in observatory station, the circulation background, vertical movement, abnormal temperature and changes of water vapor conditions in Xuzhou from October 2008 to January 2009 were expounded to reveal the causes for consecutive drought in autumn and winter. [Result] Xuzhou was under stable situation for a long time in autumn and winter in 2008, being behind east coastal trough, the downward airstream prevailing; the south trough intensity was weak, and in addition to the east subtropical high and weak intensity, the water vapor transportation condition in Indian Ocean and South Sea was unfavorable. The autumn was warm and the cold air was weak; ever since winter, there were several cold air activities. But the influencing body was in the east, and the south warm and wet airstream was insufficient. Thus, they couldn't met, which resulted into gale and lower temperature and less precipitation when under the influence of cold air. [Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the prevention of drought in the area.

Analysis on Climatic and Synoptic Characteristics of Thunderstorm Gale Weather in Jiangsu

By using observation and sounding data at 68 artificial observatories of Jiangsu Province during 2009- 2013,thunderstorm gale weather and its climatic characteristics in Jiangsu were conducted statistics. The characteristics of some instability indexes and strong convection parameters were analyzed,and environmental parameters of dry and wet thunderstorm gales were contrasted. Results showed that thunderstorm gale in Jiangsu had the characteristics of high occurrence frequency,local feature and stronger intensity. It was mostly accompanied by precipitation,and had obvious seasonal and daily change characteristics. Synoptics analysis showed that temperature-humidity profile characteristics before thunderstorm gale appeared in Jiangsu mainly had four types: bell mouth type,inverted V type,dry unstable type and wet unstable type. Before thunderstorm gale occurred,atmospheric instability was stronger,and some strong convection parameters all had certain instructions. But the forecasts of some thunderstorm gale processes were easy to be missed by only considering CAPE. Environmental condition difference of generating dry and wet thunderstorm gale was that instability of dry thunderstorm gale was stronger than that of wet thunderstorm gale. Before dry thunderstorm gale occurred,environmental temperature at middle-low layer was lower; lapse rate was larger; humidity was small. Before wet thunderstorm gale occurred,environmental temperature was higher; lapse rate was small; humidity was large. At dynamic structure,vertical wind shear at 0- 6 km of dry thunderstorm gale was significantly stronger than that of wet thunderstorm gale.

Objective Forecast Method of Frost in Lianyungang City

Based on annual minimum air temperature,the minimum ground temperature,cloudiness,air pressure,wind velocity in Lianyungang City during 1971-2010 and sounding geopotential height,wind direction,dew point and temperature at related stations,using mathematical stepwise regression method and SPSS statistical software,short-term prediction equations of daily minimum air temperature and daily minimum ground temperature at the observation station were established. According to the relationships between frost and temperature,ground temperature,based on local frost forecast standard,the short-term forecast equation was used to judge if frost occurred in Lianyungang City. Via real-time weather monitoring,accurate and fine forecast and early warning,short-term objective forecast business system of frost in Lianyungang was established for a full range of effective service.

Analysis of Variation Characters and Prediction Model of Soil Temperature in Solar Greenhouse

[Objective] The aim was to study the soil temperature changes and its forecast model in greenhouse by solar heat. [Method] Annual and daily variation characters of soil temperature were analyzed in this paper by using the observation data of air temperature out of solar greenhouse and different layers soil temperature in it. The soil temperature (daily maximum, daily minimum and daily mean) forecasting models were also studied. Simulation and test were conducted to the forecast model of soil temperature in the greenhouse. [Result] The annual changes and daily changes of soil temperature of each layer in the greenhouse were in single peak curve. The lower layer temperature changes were smaller than the upper layer. The soil temperature of each layer within the greenhouse was closely related to the relevance of same type temperature outside the greenhouse of the day. Taking the average daily temperature, daily maximum temperature and daily lowest temperature of the day and the day before as forecast factors, soil temperature forecast model of different layer of same type within greenhouse was constructed. The simulation outcome of average daily temperature of each layer within the greenhouse was better than the simulation outcome of highest temperature of corresponding layer, worse than the simulation of lowest temperature of corresponding layer. The highest temperature of lower soil and daily temperature of soil were better than the upper layer. The simulated soil temperature was much more close to the observation when the observation was during 15-30 ℃. In other interval, it was lower than the observation. [Conclusion] The study offered theoretical reference for the growth environment of sunlight greenhouse plantation.