The load and corrosion caused by the harsh marine environment lead to the severe degradation of offshore equipment and to their compromised security and reliability. In the quantitative risk analysis, the failure mode...The load and corrosion caused by the harsh marine environment lead to the severe degradation of offshore equipment and to their compromised security and reliability. In the quantitative risk analysis, the failure models are difficult to establish through traditional statistical methods. Hence, the calculation of the occurrence probability of small sample events is often met with great uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian statistical method is implemented to analyze the oil and gas leakages of FPSO internal turret, which is a typical small sample risk but could lead to severe losses.According to the corresponding failure mechanism, two Bayesian statistical models using the Weibull distribution and logarithmic normal distribution as the population distribution are established, and the posterior distribution of the corresponding parameters is calculated. The optimal Bayesian statistical model is determined according to the Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion. On the basis of the determined optimal model, the corresponding reliability index is solved to provide basic data for the subsequent risk assessments of FPSO systems.展开更多
When designing a complex pipeline with long distance and multi-supports for offshore platform,it is necessary to analyze the vibration characteristics of the complex pipeline system to ensure that there is no harmful ...When designing a complex pipeline with long distance and multi-supports for offshore platform,it is necessary to analyze the vibration characteristics of the complex pipeline system to ensure that there is no harmful resonance in the working conditions.Therefore,the optimal layout of support is an effective method to reduce the vibration response of hydraulic pipeline system.In this paper,a developed dynamic optimization method for the complex pipeline is proposed to investigate the vibration characteristics of complex pipeline with multi-elastic supports.In this method,the Kriging response surface model between the support position and pipeline is established.The position of the clamp in the model is parameterized and the optimal solution of performance index is obtained by genetic algorithm.The number of clamps and the interval between clamps are considered as the constraints of layout optimization,and the optimization objective is the natural frequencies of pipeline.Taking a typical offshore pipeline as example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method,the results show that the vibration performance of the hydraulic pipeline system is distinctly improved by the optimization procedure,which can provide reasonable guidance for the design of complex hydraulic pipeline system.展开更多
基金financially supported by the National International Science and Technology Cooperation Specific Projectthe Development of Risk Assessment Software for Floating Offshore Wind Turbine(Grant No.2013DFE73060)the Development of Failure Database and Risk Assessment System for FPSO(Grant No.G014614002)
文摘The load and corrosion caused by the harsh marine environment lead to the severe degradation of offshore equipment and to their compromised security and reliability. In the quantitative risk analysis, the failure models are difficult to establish through traditional statistical methods. Hence, the calculation of the occurrence probability of small sample events is often met with great uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian statistical method is implemented to analyze the oil and gas leakages of FPSO internal turret, which is a typical small sample risk but could lead to severe losses.According to the corresponding failure mechanism, two Bayesian statistical models using the Weibull distribution and logarithmic normal distribution as the population distribution are established, and the posterior distribution of the corresponding parameters is calculated. The optimal Bayesian statistical model is determined according to the Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion. On the basis of the determined optimal model, the corresponding reliability index is solved to provide basic data for the subsequent risk assessments of FPSO systems.
基金This work is supported by Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant no.ZR2018MEE021)Equipment Pre Research Fund Project(Grant no.61402100501).
文摘When designing a complex pipeline with long distance and multi-supports for offshore platform,it is necessary to analyze the vibration characteristics of the complex pipeline system to ensure that there is no harmful resonance in the working conditions.Therefore,the optimal layout of support is an effective method to reduce the vibration response of hydraulic pipeline system.In this paper,a developed dynamic optimization method for the complex pipeline is proposed to investigate the vibration characteristics of complex pipeline with multi-elastic supports.In this method,the Kriging response surface model between the support position and pipeline is established.The position of the clamp in the model is parameterized and the optimal solution of performance index is obtained by genetic algorithm.The number of clamps and the interval between clamps are considered as the constraints of layout optimization,and the optimization objective is the natural frequencies of pipeline.Taking a typical offshore pipeline as example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method,the results show that the vibration performance of the hydraulic pipeline system is distinctly improved by the optimization procedure,which can provide reasonable guidance for the design of complex hydraulic pipeline system.
