Public Perceptions of Cryosphere Change and the Selection of Adaptation Measures in the rmqi River Basin

This study focuses on the characters of public perceptions on climate and cryosphere change,which are based on a questionnaire survey in the(U|¨)r(u|¨)mqi River Basin.In comparison with scientific observation results of climate and cryosphere change,this paper analyzes the possible impact of the change on water resources and agriculture production in the area.Perceptions of most respondents on climate and cryosphere changes confirm the main objective facts.For the selection of adaptation measures addressing the shortage of water resource,the results are as follows:most people preferred to choose the measures like "policy change" and "basic facility construction" which are mostly implemented by the government and the policy-making department;some people showed more preference to the measures of avoiding unfavorable natural environment,such as finding job in or migrating to other places.The urgency of personal participation in the adaptation measures is still inadequate.Some adaptation measures should be implemented in line with local conditions and require the organic combination of "resource-development" with "water-saving".

THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT ANOMALY OF MJO ON ENSO

In this study,two possible persistent anomalies of the Madden-Julian Oscillation mode(MJO) are found in the summer season(persistently Pacific active and Indian Ocean active),and an index is set to define the intensity of the two modes.They are proved to have high statistical correlations to the later ENSO events in the autumn and winter seasons:When persistent anomaly of MJO happens in the Pacific Ocean in summer,El Nino events are often induced during the autumn and winter seasons of that year.However,during the other MJO mode when the summer persistent anomaly of MJO occurs in the Indian Ocean,La Nina events often follow instead.The analysis of the atmospheric circulation field indicates that persistent anomaly of MJO can probably affect the entire Equatorial Pacific circulation,and results in wind stress anomalies.The wind stress anomalies could excite warm or cold water masses which propagate eastwards at the subsurface ocean.The accumulation of warm or cold subsurface water in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean may eventually lead to the formation of an ENSO.

Influence of Springtime Atlantic SST on ENSO:Role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Increased evidence has shown the important role of Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) in modulating the El Nio-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). Persistent anomalies of summer Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) act to link the Atlantic SST anomalies(SSTAs) to ENSO. The Atlantic SSTAs are strongly correlated with the persistent anomalies of summer MJO, and possibly affect MJO in two major ways. One is that an anomalous cyclonic(anticyclonic) circulation appears over the tropical Atlantic Ocean associated with positive(negative) SSTA in spring, and it intensifies(weakens) the Walker circulation. Equatorial updraft anomaly then appears over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific Ocean, intensifying MJO activity over these regions. The other involves a high pressure(low pressure) anomaly associated with the North Atlantic SSTA tripole pattern that is transmitted to the mid-and low-latitudes by a circumglobal teleconnection pattern, leading to strong(weak) convective activity of MJO over the Indian Ocean. The above results offer new viewpoints about the process from springtime Atlantic SSTA signals to summertime atmospheric oscillation, and then to the MJO of tropical atmosphere affecting wintertime Pacific ENSO events, which connects different oceans.