Local Torrential Rainfall Event within a Mei-Yu Season Mesoscale Convective System:Importance of Back-Building Processes

An extreme rainfall event occurred over Hangzhou,China,during the afternoon hours on 24 June 2013.This event occurred under suitable synoptic conditions and the maximum 4-h cumulative rainfall amount was over 150 mm.This rainfall event had two major rainbands.One was caused by a quasi-stationary convective line,and the other by a backbuilding convective line related to the interaction of the outflow boundary from the first rainband and an existing low-level mesoscale convergence line associated with a mei-yu frontal system.The rainfall event lasted 4 h,while the back-building process occurred in 2 h when the extreme rainfall center formed.So far,few studies have examined the back-building processes in the mei-yu season that are caused by the interaction of a mesoscale convergence line and a convective cold pool.The two rainbands are successfully reproduced by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model with fourlevel,two-way interactive nesting.In the model,new cells repeatedly occur at the west side of older cells,and the backbuilding process occurs in an environment with large CAPE,a low LFC,and plenty of water vapor.Outflows from older cells enhance the low-level convergence that forces new cells.High precipitation efficiency of the back-building training cells leads to accumulated precipitation of over 150 mm.Sensitivity experiments without evaporation of rainwater show that the convective cold pool plays an important role in the organization of the back-building process in the current extreme precipitation case.

Short-term wind speed forecasting bias correction in the Hangzhou area of China based on a machine learning model

准确的风速预报具有重要的社会意义.在本研究中,使用名为WSFBC-XGB的XGBoost机器学习模型对中国浙江省杭州市自动气象站的短期风速预报误差进行校正.WSFBC-XGB使用本地数值天气预报系统的产品作为输入.将WSFBC-XGB校正的结果与传统MOS(模型输出统计)方法校正的结果进行了比较.结果表明:WSFBC-XGB预报风速的均方根误差(RMSE)/准确率(ACC)分别比NWP和MOS降低/提高了26.1%和7.64%/35.6%和7.02%;对于90%的站点WSFBC-XGB的RMSE/ACC均小于/高于MOS.此外,采用平均杂质减少法对WSFBC-XGB的可解释性进行分析,以帮助用户增加对模型的信任.结果表明:10米风速(47.35%),10米风的经向分量(12.73%),日循环(9.97%)和1000百帕风的经向分量(7.45%)是前4个最重要的特征.WSFBC-XGB模型将有助于提高短期风速预报的准确性,为大型户外活动提供支持.

New Vegetation Index and Its Application in Estimating Leaf Area Index of Rice

Leaf area index （LAI） is an important characteristic of land surface vegetation system, and is also a key parameter for the models of global water balancing and carbon circulation. By using the reflectance values of Landsat-5 blue, green and red channels simulated from rice reflectance spectrum, the sensitivities of the bands to LAI were analyzed, and the response and capability to estimate LAI of various NDVIs （normalized difference vegetation indices）, which were established by substituting the red band of general NDVI with all possible combinations of red, green and blue bands, were assessed. Finally, the conclusion was tested by rice data at different conditions. The sensitivities of red, green and blue bands to LAI were different under various conditions. When LAI was less than 3, red and blue bands were more sensitive to LAI. Though green band in the circumstances was less sensitive to LAI than red and blue bands, it was sensitive to LAI in a wider range. When the vegetation indices were constituted by all kinds of combinations of red, green and blue bands, the premise for making the sensitivity of these vegetation indices to LAI be meaningful was that the value of one of the combinations was greater than 0.024, i.e. visible reflectance （VIS）〉0.024. Otherwise, the vegetation indices would be saturated, resulting in lower estimation accuracy of LAI. Comparison on the capabilities of the vegetation indices derived from all kinds of combinations of red, green and blue bands to LAI estimation showed that GNDVI （Green NDVI） and GBNDVI （Green-Blue NDVI） had the best relations with LAI. The capabilities of GNDVI and GBNDVI to LAI estimation were tested under different circumstances, and the same result was acquired. It suggested that GNDVI and GBNDVI performed better to predict LAI than the conventional NDVI.

NUMERICAL STUDY OF COLD AIR IMPACT ON RAINFALL REINFORCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE TALIM(2005):I.IMPACT OF DIFFERENT COLD AIR INTENSITY

In 2005,significant rainfall reinforcement and severe disaster was induced by tropical cyclone(TC) Talim after it made landfall on the east of China.Observational analyses show that it has relationship with cold air intrusion.For investigating the impact of cold air intensity,we make use of Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model,the synthesizer of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and Japan regional spectral model data,to carry out numerical experiments.Results show that rainfall reinforcement occurs in all experiments.Different intensity of cold air can modify the rainfall distribution and intensity significantly.In the rainfall center,the increment maximum of rainfall is twice as large as that of the minimum.Moderate cold air intrusion may result in the strongest rainfall reinforcement.Different cold air intensity can lead to different motion of low-level convergence lines and fronts.There is a good relationship between the rainfall region and the eastern part of the front.On one hand,strong cold air weakens the TC intensity by its intrusion into the TC center and results in weak convergence and a convergent zone and a rain band shifted southward.On the other hand,weak cold air reduces the convergence and moves the convergent zone and rain band northward.Moderate cold air intrusion maintains strong low-level convergence and high-level divergence,keeping strong upward motion over certain regions.Consequently,the rain band begins to stagnate and rainfall reinforces abruptly therein.

Effects of Crop Growth and Development on Land Surface Fluxes

In this study, the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis model （CERES3.0） was coupled into the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme （BATS）, which is called BATS CERES, to represent interactions between the land surface and crop growth processes. The effects of crop growth and development on land surface processes were then studied based on numerical simulations using the land surface models. Six sensitivity experiments by BATS show that the land surface fluxes underwent substantial changes when the leaf area index was changed from 0 to 6 m2 m-2. Numerical experiments for Yucheng and Taoyuan stations reveal that the coupled model could capture not only the responses of crop growth and development to environmental conditions, but also the feedbacks to land surface processes. For quantitative evaluation of the effects of crop growth and development on surface fluxes in China, two numerical experiments were conducted over continental China： one by BATS CERES and one by the original BATS. Comparison of the two runs shows decreases of leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover when incorporating dynamic crops in land surface simulation, which lead to less canopy interception, vegetation transpiration, total evapotranspiration, top soil moisture, and more soil evaporation, surface runoff, and root zone soil moisture. These changes are accompanied by decreasing latent heat flux and increasing sensible heat flux in the cropland region. In addition, the comparison between the simulations and observations proved that incorporating the crop growth and development process into the land surface model could reduce the systematic biases of the simulated leaf area index and top soil moisture, hence improve the simulation of land surface fluxes.

Numerical Study of Boundary Layer Structure and Rainfall after Landfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013): Sensitivity to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

The boundary layer structure and related heavy rainfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013), which made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, are studied using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the sensitivity of the simulation to the planetary boundary layer parameterization. Two groups of experiments—one with the same surface layer scheme and including the Yonsei University(YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino Level 2.5,and Bougeault and Lacarrere schemes; and the other with different surface layer schemes and including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic′ and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination schemes—are investigated. For the convenience of comparative analysis, the simulation with the YSU scheme is chosen as the control run because this scheme successfully reproduces the track, intensity and rainfall as a whole. The maximum deviations in the peak tangential and peak radial winds may account for 11% and 33%of those produced in the control run, respectively. Further diagnosis indicates that the vertical diffusivity is much larger in the first group, resulting in weaker vertical shear of the tangential and radial winds in the boundary layer and a deeper inflow layer therein. The precipitation discrepancies are related to the simulated track deflection and the differences in the simulated low-level convergent flow among all tests. Furthermore, the first group more efficiently transfers moisture and energy and produces a stronger ascending motion than the second, contributing to a deeper moist layer, stronger convection and greater precipitation.

Application of a Typhoon Initialization Scheme Based on the Incremental Analysis Updates Technique in a Rapid Update Cycle System

Initialization of tropical cyclones plays an important role in typhoon numerical prediction. This study applied a typhoon initialization scheme based on the incremental analysis updates (IAU) technique in a rapid refresh system to improve the prediction of Typhoon Lekima (2019). Two numerical sensitivity experiments with or without application of the IAU technique after performing vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures were conducted for comparison with the control experiment, which did not involve a typhoon initialization scheme. Analysis of the initial fields indicated that the relocation procedure shifted the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon region, and the wind speeds became closer to the observations following the wind adjustment procedure. Comparison of the results of the sensitivity and control experiments revealed that the vortex relocation and wind adjustment procedures could improve the prediction of typhoon track and intensity in the first 6-h period, and that these improvements were extended throughout the first 12-h period of the prediction by the IAU technique. The new typhoon initialization scheme also improved the simulated typhoon structure in terms of not only the wind speed and warm core prediction but also the organization of the eye of Typhoon Lekima. Diagnosis of the tendencies of variables showed that use of the IAU technique in a typhoon initialization scheme is efficacious in resolving the spurious high-frequency noise problem such that the model is able to reach equilibrium as soon as possible.

Improving Simulation of the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle of China in Version 4.5 of the Community Land Model Using a Revised V_(cmax) Scheme

The maximum rate of carboxylation(Vcmax) is a key photosynthetic parameter for gross primary production(GPP) estimation in terrestrial biosphere models. A set of observation-based Vcmax values, which take the nitrogen limitation on photosynthetic rates into consideration, are used in version 4.5 of the Community Land Model(CLM4.5). However, CLM4.5 with carbon-nitrogen(CN) biogeochemistry(CLM4.5-CN) still uses an independent decay coefficient for nitrogen after the photosynthesis calculation. This means that the nitrogen limitation on the carbon cycle is accounted for twice when CN biogeochemistry is active. Therefore, to avoid this double nitrogen down-regulation in CLM4.5-CN, the original Vcmax scheme is revised with a new one that only accounts for the transition between Vcmax and its potential value(without nitrogen limitation). Compared to flux towerbased observations, the new Vcmax scheme reduces the root-mean-square error(RMSE) in GPP for China's Mainland by 13.7 g C m-2 yr-1, with a larger decrease over humid areas(39.2 g C m-2 yr-1). Moreover, net primary production and leaf area index are also improved, with reductions in RMSE by 0.8% and 11.5%, respectively.

Coupling of a Regional Climate Model with a Crop Development Model and Evaluation of the Coupled Model across China

In this study, the CERES(Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis) crop model was coupled with CLM3.5, the land module of the regional climate model RegCM4. The new coupled model was named RegCM4_CERES; and in this model, crop type was further divided into winter wheat, spring wheat, spring maize, summer maize, early rice, late rice,single rice, and other crop types based on each distribution fraction. The development of each crop sub-type was simulated by the corresponding crop model separately, with each planting and harvesting date. A simulation test using RegCM4_CERES was conducted across China from 1999 to 2008; a control test was also performed using the original RegCM4. Data on crop LAI(leaf area index), soil moisture at 10 cm depth, precipitation, and 2 m air temperature were collected to evaluate the performance of RegCM4_CERES. The evaluation provided comparison of single-station time series, regional distributions,seasonal variations, and statistical indices for RegCM4_CERES. The results revealed that the coupled model had an excellent ability to simulate the phonological changes and spatial variations in crops. The consideration of dynamic crop development in RegCM4_CERES corrected the wet bias of the original RegCM4 over North China and the cold bias over South China.However, the degree of improvement was minimal and the statistical indices for RegCM4_CERES were roughly the same as the original RegCM4.

Results of a CLM4 Land Surface Simulation over China Using a Multisource Integrated Land Cover Dataset

In this study, the high-accuracy multisource integrated Chinese land cover(MICLCover) dataset was used in version 4 of the Community Land Model(CLM4) to assess how the new land cover information affected land surface simulation over China. Compared to the default land cover dataset in CLM4, the MICL data indicated lower values for bare soil(14.6% reduction), needleleaf tree(3.6%), and broadleaf tree(1.9%); higher values for shrub cover(1.8% increase), grassland(9.9%), cropland(5.0%), glaciers(0.5%), lakes(1.6%), and wetland(1.1%); and unchanged for urban areas. Two comparative CLM4 simulations were conducted for the 33-yr period from 1972 to 2004, one using the MICL dataset and the other using the default dataset. The results revealed that the MICL data produced a 0.3% lower mean annual surface albedo over China than the original data. The largest contributor to the reduced value was semiarid regions(2.1% reduction). The MICL-data albedo value agreed more closely with observations(MODIS broadband black-sky albedo products) over arid and semiarid regions than for the original data to some extent. The simulated average sensible heat flux over China increased by only 0.1 W m–2 owing to the reduced values in arid and semiarid regions, as opposed to increases in humid and semihumid regions, while an increased latent heat flux of 1 W m–2 was reflected in almost identical changes over the whole region. In addition, the mean annual runoff simulated by CLM4 using MICL data decreased by 6.8 mm yr–1, primarily due to large simulated decreases in humid regions.

URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON OBSERVED CHANGES IN SUMMER EXTREME HEAT EVENTS OVER ZHEJIANG PROVINCE, EAST CHINA

Although the urban heat island(UHI) is a well-documented phenomenon, relatively little information in the literature is available about its impact on summer extreme heat event(EHE). As UHI is characterized by increased temperature, it can potentially increase the magnitude and duration of EHEs within cities. Based on daily maximum temperature records from 62 observation stations in Zhejiang province from the period 1971-2011 and satellite-measured nighttime light imagery from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program(DMSP) Operational Linescan System(OLS) during 1992-2010, we analyzed the long-term change of summer EHEs and its association with the rapid urbanization process. The results could be concluded as follows:(1) Zhejiang has experienced rapid urbanization and dramatic growth in urban areas in the past two decades, especially after 2000.(2) The summer mean maximum temperature and the 95 th percentile of summer daily maximum temperature in most of its stations have increased, with the most significant increase occurring in the highly urbanized areas including the city belt around Hangzhou Bay, Taizhou-Wenzhou and Jinghua-Yiwu city belts.(3) The hot days and hot-day degrees, defined by both daily 95 th percentile and the threshold of 35℃, show that the UHI effect causes additional hot days and heat stress in urban stations compared to rural stations.The results in this study suggest that the UHI effect should be determined and incorporated in preparing high temperature forecasts in cities.

ANALYSIS OF RAINSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH SIMILAR TRACK TROPICAL CYCLONES HAITANG (0505) AND BILIS (0604)

It is generally thought that the influence of comparable track typhoons is approximately similar, but in fact their wind and especially their rainstorm distribution are often very different. Therefore, a contrastive analysis of rainstorms by tropical cyclones (TCs) Haitang (0505) and Bilis (0604), which are of a similar track, is designed to help understand the mechanism of the TC rainstorm and to improve forecasting skills. The daily rainfall of TC Haitang (0505) and Bilis (0604) is diagnosed and compared. The result indicates that these two TCs have similar precipitation distribution before landfall but different precipitation characteristics after landfall. Using NCEP/GFS analysis data, the synoptic situation is analyzed; water vapor transportation is discussed regarding the calculated water vapor flux and divergence. The results show that the heavy rainfall in the Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces associated with Haitang (0505) and Bilis (0604) before landfall results from a peripheral easterly wind, a combination of the tropical cyclone and the terrain. After landfall and moving far inland of the storm, the precipitation of Haitang is caused by water vapor convergence carried by its own circulation; it is much weaker than that in the coastal area. One of the important contributing factors to heavy rainstorms in southeast Zhejiang is a southeast jet stream, which is maintained over the southeast coast. In contrast, the South China Sea monsoon circulation transports large amounts of water vapor into Bilis – when a water-vapor transport belt south of the tropical cyclone significantly strengthens – which strengthens the transport. Then, it causes water vapor flux to converge on the south side of Bilis and diverge on the north side. Precipitation is much stronger on the south side than that on the north side. After Bilis travels far inland, the cold air guided by a north trough travels into the TC and remarkably enhances precipitation. In summary, combining vertical wind shear with water vapor transportation is a good way to predict rainstorms associated with landing tropical cyclones.

Impacts of Multigrid NLS-4DVar-based Doppler Radar Observation Assimilation on Numerical Simulations of Landfalling Typhoon Haikui (2012)

We applied the multigrid nonlinear least-squares four-dimensional variational assimilation(MG-NLS4DVar)method in data assimilation and prediction experiments for Typhoon Haikui(2012)using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model.Observation data included radial velocity(Vr)and reflectivity(Z)data from a single Doppler radar,quality controlled prior to assimilation.Typhoon prediction results were evaluated and compared between the NLS-4DVar and MG-NLS4DVar methods.Compared with a forecast that began with NCEP analysis data,our radar data assimilation results were clearly improved in terms of structure,intensity,track,and precipitation prediction for Typhoon Haikui(2012).The results showed that the assimilation accuracy of the NLS-4DVar method was similar to that of the MG-NLS4DVar method,but that the latter was more efficient.The assimilation of Vr alone and Z alone each improved predictions of typhoon intensity,track,and precipitation;however,the impacts of Vr data were significantly greater that those of Z data.Assimilation window-length sensitivity experiments showed that a 6-h assimilation window with 30-min assimilation intervals produced slightly better results than either a 3-h assimilation window with 15-min assimilation intervals or a 1-h assimilation window with 6-min assimilation intervals.

An Evaluation of RegCM3_CERES for Regional Climate Modeling in China

A 20-year simulation of regional climate over East Asia by the regional climate model RegCM3_CERES （Regional Climate Model version 3 coupled with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis） was carried out and compared with observations and the original RegCM3 model to compre- hensively evaluate its performance in simulating the regional climate over continental China. The results showed that RegCM3_CERES reproduced the regional climate at a resolution of 60 km over China by using ERA40 data as the boundary conditions, albeit with some limitations. The model captured the basic char- acteristics of the East Asian circulation, the spatial distribution of mean precipitation and temperature, and the daily characteristics of precipitation and temperature. However, it underestimated both the intensity of the monsoon in the monsoonal area and precipitation in southern China, overestimated precipitation in northern China, and produced a systematic cold temperature bias over most of continental China. Despite these limitations, it was concluded that the RegCM3_CERES model is able to simulate the regional climate over continental China reasonably well.

Efects of Crop Growth on Hydrological Processes in River Basins and on Regional Climate in China

The regional climate model RegCM3 incorporating the crop model CERES,called the RegCM3CERES model,was used to study the efects of crop growth and development on regional climate and hydrological processes over seven river basins in China.A 20-year numerical simulation showed that incorporating the crop growth and development processes improved the simulation of precipitation over the Haihe River Basin,Songhuajiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin.When compared with the RegCM3 control run,RegCM3CERES reduced the negative biases of monthly mean temperature over most of the seven basins in summer,especially the Haihe River Basin and Huaihe River Basin.The simulated maximum monthly evapotranspiration for summer(JJA)was around 100 mm in the basins of the Yangtze,Haihe,Huaihe and Pearl Rivers.The seasonal and annual variations of water balance components(runof,evapotranspiration and total precipitation)over all seven basins indicate that changes of evapotranspiration agree well with total precipitation.Compared to the RegCM3,RegCM3CERES simulations indicate reduced local water recycling rate over most of the seven basins due to lower evapotranspiration and greater water flux into these basins and an increased precipitation in the Heihe River Basin and Yellow River Basin,but reduced precipitation in the other five basins.Furthermore,a lower summer leaf area index(1.20 m2m 2),greater root soil moisture(0.01 m3m 3),lower latent heat flux(1.34 W m 2),and greater sensible heat flux(2.04 W m 2)are simulated for the Yangtze River Basin.

Analysis of lower-boundary climate factors contributing to the summer heatwave frequency over eastern Europe using a machine-learning model

本文使用LightGBM机器学习模型模拟了欧洲东部夏季热浪频率的变化,并分析了多个底边界层气候因子的贡献.所选取的气候因子包括前期冬季,前期春季以及同期夏季的下垫面海温,土壤湿度,积雪以及海冰.分析结果说明LightGBM模型能够较好的模拟出欧洲东部夏季热浪频率的变化,其中海温因子对模拟的贡献最大.进一步的分析研究显示,使用前期冬季的气候因子进行的模拟可以获得最佳模拟结果,意味着前期冬季的下垫面气候因子可能对夏季欧洲东部热浪频率变化的预报能起到关键作用.

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES IN EAST CHINA AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC REGION

Data from high-resolution satellites were used to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of mesoscale convective vortices(MCVs) in central and east China and the western Pacific Ocean region. The monthly variation in MCVs was significant. From May to October, MCVs were clearly affected by large-scale environmental conditions,including the South Asian summer monsoon, subtropical high and solar radiation, which resulted in clear changes in MCV spatial distributions from strengthening and weakening processes. Based on the analysis of diurnal MCV variations and the precipitation rate from May to October, MCVs were found to occur more frequently over the ocean than over land. MCVs near the Sea of Japan and northern South China Sea occurred during all types of weather. Ocean occurrences near land, such as the Ryukyu Islands, were categorized as morning-active MCVs. The hilly regions of southeastern China and North China Plain were characterized by afternoon-active MCVs. Limited to topography and the urban heat island effect, the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area had evening-active MCVs, while Changbai Mountain had nocturnal MCVs.

Observed Climate Change in East China during 1961-2007

By using in situ daily observations in East China during 1961-2007 and NCEP reanalysis data, the methods of statistical analyses, urban minus rural and observation minus reanalysis, it is revealed that the observed climate change and surface warming in East China were mainly induced by urbanization. The results show that East China has experienced two warmer periods of 1930s and 1980s in the past century; from 1951 to 2007, the regional mean temperature increased at a rate of 0.14°C per decade; heat waves happened in urban center more frequently, and local climate showed a warming and dry trend; there was no significant linear trend in regional mean precipitation in the past 50 years. Urbanization was a crucial element for the regional warming; about 44% of the warming was due to heat island effect in the mega city.

Science and Prediction of Heavy Rainfall over China:Research Progress since the Reform and Opening-Up of New China

This paper reviews the major progress on development of the science and prediction of heavy rainfall over China since the beginning of the reform and opening-up of new China(roughly between 1980 and 2019).The progress of research on the physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall over China is summarized from three perspectives:1)the relevant synoptic weather systems,2)heavy rainfall in major sub-regions of China,and 3)heavy rainfall induced by typhoons.The development and application of forecasting techniques for heavy rainfall are summarized in terms of numerical weather prediction techniques and objective forecasting methods.Greatly aided by the rapid progress in meteorological observing technology and substantial improvement in electronic computing,studies of heavy rainfall in China have advanced to investigating the evolution of heavy-rain-producing storms and observational analysis of the cloud microphysical features.A deeper and more systematic understanding of the synoptic systems of importance to the production of heavy rainfall has also been developed.Operational forecast of heavy rainfall in China has changed from subjective weather event forecasts to a combination of both subjective and objective quantitative precipitation forecasts,and is now advancing toward probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with the provision of forecast uncertainty information.

A STUDY ON VARIABLE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

With the pros and cons of the traditional optimization and probability pairing methods thoroughly considered, an improved optimal pairing window probability technique is developed using a dynamic relationship between the base reflectivity Z observed by radar and real time precipitation I by rain gauge. Then, the Doppler radar observations of base reflectivity for typhoons Haitang and Matsa in Wenzhou are employed to establish various Z-I relationships, which are subsequently used to estimate hourly precipitation of the two typhoons. Such estimations are calibrated by variational techniques. The results show that there exist significant differences in the Z-I relationships for the typhoons, leading to different typhoon precipitation efficiencies. The typhoon precipitation estimated by applying radar base reflectivity is capable of exhibiting clearly the spiral rain belts and mesoscale cells, and well matches the observed rainfall. Error statistical analyses indicate that the estimated typhoon precipitation is better with variational calibration than the one without. The variational calibration technique is able to maintain the characteristics of the distribution of radar-estimated typhoon precipitation, and to significantly reduce the error of the estimated precipitation in comparison with the observed rainfall.