On the correlation of nonlinear variables containing secular trend variations： numerical experiments

Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted （overestimated or underestimated）. Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced （the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated）; and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased （the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated）. Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-（opposite-） sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more （less） distinctive. A meteorological example is given.

Estimate of Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions for 2012–16 in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs)have been widely used in China as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances,the production and use of which are being phased out under the Montreal Protocol.China is a major consumer of HFCs around the world,with its HFC emissions in CO2-equivalent contributing to about 18%of the global emissions for the period2012-16.Three methods are widely used to estimate the emissions of HFCs-namely,the bottom-up method,top-down method and tracer ratio method.In this study,the tracer ratio method was adopted to estimate HFC emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD),using CO as a tracer.The YRD region might make a significant contribution to Chinese totals owing to its rapid economic growth.Weekly flask measurements for ten HFCs(HFC-23,HFC-32,HFC-125,HFC-134 a,HFC-143 a,HFC-152 a,HFC-227 ea,HFC-236 fa,HFC-245 fa and HFC-365 mfc)were conducted at Lin’an Regional Background Station in the YRD over the period 2012-16,and the HFC emissions were 2.4±1.4 Gg yr-1 for HFC-23,2.8±1.2 Gg yr-1 for HFC-32,2.2±1.2 Gg yr-1 for HFC-125,4.8±4.8 Gg yr-1 for HFC-134 a,0.9±0.6 Gg yr-1 for HFC-152 a,0.3±0.3 Gg yr-1 for HFC-227 ea and 0.3±0.2 Gg yr-1 for HFC-245 fa.The YRD total HFC emissions reached 53 Gg CO2-e yr-1,contributing 34%of the national total.The per capita HFC CO2-equivalent emissions rate was 240 kg yr-1,while the values of per unit area emissions and per million GDP emissions reached 150 Mg km-2yr-1 and 3500 kg yr-1(million CNY GDP)-1,which were much higher than national or global levels.

CLIMATOLOGICAL VARIATION OF GLOBAL CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOWS FOR THE PERIOD 1948-2004

By using monthly NCEP/NCAR meridional gridpoint wind data at the levels of 1000, 850, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 200, 150 and 100 hPa from 1948 to 2004, the intensity of global cross-equatorial flows is calculated. The spatial and temporal variation of global cross-equatorial flows at the 850-hPa level are shown and discussed. The results show that the strength of the 850-hPa global cross-equatorial flows represent obvious long-term variation and interdecadal change during the period. Evidence suggests that the cross-equatorial flow of the passages at 45 – 50 °E in June to August, 105 – 115 °E in May to September, 130 – 140 °E in May to September and May to November and 20 – 25 °E in February to April intensified and that the cross-equatorial flow of the passages at 50 – 35 °W in June to August weaken in the past 57 years,with an increase of 0.25m/s/10a for summer Somali Jet and increase of 0.32 m/s/10a for cross- equatorial flow at 130 – 140 °E in May to September The results of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for the time series indicate that for the cross-equatorial flow at 850 hPa, the interdecadal and long-term trend changes are 35% – 45%, and the interannual variation is no more than 30%, in variance contribution. The results also reveal that the interannual variation of intensity of the summer cross-equatorial flows in the Pacific is significantly correlated with Southern Oscillation. With weak Southern Oscillation, strong cross- equatorial flows in Pacific will happen, though the summer Somali Jet is only a little positively correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Erratum to:Estimate of Hydrofluorocarbon Emissions for 2012-16 in the Yangtze River Delta,China

In the original version of this article,the unit of the YRD total HFC emissions“Gg CO2-e yr^−1”in the abstract should be Tg CO2-e yr^−1.On Page 581,in the fifth line from the left bottom,the unit of the total CO2-equivalent emissions of HFCs“Gg yr^−1”should be Tg yr^−1.

Study on the Interaction of Non-axisymmetric Binary Vortices

In the context of advection dynamics, 19 experiments （Exps.） are performed using a quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model to explore the condition for the mergence of binary vortices and the self-organization of the larger scale vortex. Results show that the initial distance between the centers of binary vortices and the non-axisymmetric distributions of their initial vorticity are two factors affecting the mergence of binary vortices. There is a critical distance for the mergence of initial symmetric binary vortices, however, the mergence of initial non-axisymmetric binary vortices is also affected by the asymmetric structure of initial vortices. The self-organization processes in 19 experiments can be classified into two types： one is the merging of identical, axisymmetric binary vortices in which the interaction of the two vortices undergoes slowly change, rapid change, and the formation, stretching, and development of the filaments of vorticity, and the two vortices merge into a symmetric vortex, with its vorticity piled up in the inner region coming from the two initial vortices, and the vorticity of the spiral band in the outer region from the stretching of the filaments of the two initial vortices. And the other type is the merging of the two non-axisymmetric initial vortices of an elliptic vortex and an eccentric vortex in which the elliptic vortex, on the one hand, mutually rotates, and on the other hand moves towards the center of the computational domain, at the same time expands its vorticity area, and at last forms the inner core of resultant state vortex; and the eccentric vortex mutually rotates, meanwhile continuously stretches, and finally forms the spiral band of resultant state vortex. The interaction process is characteristic of the vorticity piled up in the inner core region of resultant state vortex originating from the elliptic vortex and the vorticity in spiral band mainly from the successive stretch and rupture of the eccentric vortex.