Navigating Market Choices: Understanding Carrot Market Outlet Selection among Smallholder Farmers in Kenya

This research delves into the hurdles and strategies aimed at augmenting the market involvement of smallholder carrot farmers in Nakuru County, Kenya. Employing a Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, it scrutinizes the factors influencing the selection of marketing outlets among carrot farmers. The findings unveil that a significant majority (81%) of surveyed farmers actively participate in diverse market outlets, encompassing the farm gate, cleaning point, local market, external market, and export market. Notably, pivotal buyers include aggregators, brokers, wholesalers, retailers, and consumers, with transactions predominantly occurring at the farm level. Additionally, the analysis discerns substantial influences of socio-economic characteristics, experiential factors, and geographical proximity on farmers’ choices of market outlets. Specifically, gender, age, land size, farming experience, and distance to markets emerge as critical determinants. Moreover, the study delves into the examination of market margins along the carrot value chain, shedding light on the potential profitability of carrot farming in the region. Remarkably, higher average gross margins are identified in export and external markets, signaling lucrative prospects for farmers targeting these segments. However, disparities in profit distribution between farmers and traders underscore the necessity for interventions to ensure equitable value distribution throughout the value chain. These findings underscore the imperative for tailored interventions to tackle challenges and foster inclusive agricultural development. Strategies such as farmer organizations, contracting, and vertical integration are advocated to enhance market access and profitability for smallholder carrot farmers. Thus, this study enriches our comprehension of the dynamics within carrot value chains and provides valuable insights for policymakers and development practitioners aiming to uplift rural livelihoods and bolster food security.

Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Improved Charcoal Production for Environment and Economics of Blacksmiths： Evidence from Nepal

Blacksmiths in Nepal are marginalized and disadvantaged occupational caste, however, very popular for their handicraft works mainly in making iron tools and equipments. With the advancement of technology, there have been many innovative technologies in many other sectors, but blacksmiths in Nepal are still dependent on their indigenous and conventional practices which have direct negative consequences for environment, biodiversity conservation and health. Recently, improved charcoal production technology has been implemented among the 77 blacksmith households in Sindhupalchowk district as a pilot project. However, there is little research about the impact of improved charcoal production on forest resources conservation and people＇s livelihoods. This study therefore made an effort to explore the impact of improved charcoal production technology and firewood consumption on conserving the environment and promoting sustainable livelihood of marginalized households in rural areas of Nepal. Findings of the study revealed that improved charcoal production technology has positive impacts on forest tree conservation by reducing the fuel wood consumption up to 40% with 60% energy efficiency as compared to the traditional system. The improved charcoal production pilot project has reduced annual CO2, CH4 and CO emissions in the study area by 2.4-3.1, 3.3-4.3 and 2.6-3.5 tons, respectively. Furthermore, improved charcoal production system increases blacksmiths＇ welfare through generating social, human and economic capital and quality attributes like environmental sustainability. Introducing improved charcoal production and controlling heavy firewood collection at rural villages of Nepal will help to increase carbon sequestration and reduce the sources of carbon emission in context of global climate change.

Trade-offs and synergies of climate change adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa:A systematic review

Climate change adaptation strategies provide a cushion for smallholder farmers,especially in subSaharan Africa against the risks posed by climate hazards such as droughts and floods.However,the decision-making process in climate adaptation is complex.To better understand the dynamics of the process,we strive to answer this question:what are the potential trade-offs and synergies related to decision-making and implementation of climate adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa region?A systematic literature review methodology was used through the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis(PRISMA)statement with the four-stage inclusion/exclusion criteria to identify the literature from selected databases(Scopus and Google Scholar).The climate adaptation strategies are organized into five broad categories(crop management,risk management,soil/land management,water management,and livestock management strategies).Evidence suggests that potential trade-offs may arise concerning added costs,additional labor requirements,and competition among objectives or available resources.The synergies,on the other hand,arise from implementing two or more adaptation strategies concurrently in respect of increased productivity,resilience,yield stability,sustainability,and environmental protection.Trade-offs and synergies may also differ among the various adaptation strategies with minimum/zero tillage,comparatively,presenting more tradeoffs.The development and promotion of low-cost adaptation strategies and complementary climate adaptation options that minimize the trade-offs and maximize the synergies are suggested.Skills and knowledge on proper implementation of climate change adaptation strategies are encouraged,especially at the local farm level.

The Influence of Climate/Weather to the Growth and Distribution of Malaria

More than million people die from malaria every year(Philippe Brasseur et al.,1999).Some studies indicate that there may be as many as 3 million deaths and above per year due to malaria.Up to 90%of which occur in Africa,and 90%are children under age of 5 years.WHO estimates that 40%of the World’s population is at risk of malaria(Victor Ojeanelo, 2007).Weather and climate have significant effects on the growth and distribution of malaria transmitting mosquitos.Rainfall and temperature limits the growth and development of Anopheles mosquito,which

Determinants and rates of land degradation： Application of stationary time-series model to data from a semi-arid environment in Kenya

The causes of land degradation in the African drylands have been shown to vary. Some researchers consider climate to be the major contributor to degradation, with anthropogenic factors playing a minor role. Others reverse the significance of these two factors. A third group attributes land degradation to climate and anthropogenic factors equally. This study was undertaken to establish the factors influencing land degradation in a semi-arid environment in southeastern Kenya and the rate of change in vegetation types for a period of 35 years （1973-2007）. The reduction in grassland cover was used as an indicator of land degradation. Causes of land degradation were determined by a multiple regression analysis. A log-linear regression analysis was used to establish the rate of vegetation change. The multiple and log-linear regression analyses showed： （1） woody vegetation, livestock population and cultivated area to be the main contributors of reduction in grassland cover in the area, and （2） an increase in undesirable woody species, livestock population and cultivated area had a significant （P〈0.05） negative effect on grassland vegetation. Increased human population, low amounts of rainfall and drought showed no significant negative effect on grassland vegetation cover. In conclusion, human and livestock population growth and increased agricultural land have contributed to intensive crop cultivation and overgrazing in the semi-arid lands. This overuse of the semi-arid rangelands has worsened the deterioration of the natural grassland vegetation.

Comparative Analysis of Disparity in Demand for Fresh Fish between Rural and Urban Households in Cameroon

The past decades have exhibited changes in the consumption of fresh fish. In developing countries, factors affecting fish consumption are different between urban and rural households. This study comparatively analyses the disparity in demand for fresh fish between rural and urban households in Cameroon. Using random sampling, data on the weekly consumption of fresh fish were collected between April and May 2015;30 households lived in rural localities while 30 lived in urban areas of Buea Municipality. Consumer’s income, the price of fresh fish, family size, gender and age of consumers represented parameters of interest. These were analyzed using the independent sample t-test. Results revealed that the availability, the income level and price affected fish consumption of rural dwellers while price, taste, income and affordability determined the consumption patterns of urban dwellers. The study equally revealed that the higher the price of fresh fish, the higher the demand for its closed substitutes and the higher the size of the household, the higher the quantity demanded. Gender, education and marital status did not affect the quantity demanded;family size and age negatively influenced consumers’ decision to buy while consumers’ income and price of fresh fish positively influenced consumers’ weekly and monthly expenditure on fresh fish. The study proposes that more information be provided to consumers regarding the numerous nutritional benefits of fresh fish for both rural and urban dwellers. Also, policy makers and marketers need to improve the availability of fresh fish in rural and semi-urban settings.

Understanding the determinants of household cooking-fuel choice in sub-Saharan Africa:evidence from Nigeria

Overreliance on traditional cooking fuels by agricultural households poses a significant obstacle to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 7 by 2030 in Nigeria.Despite the emerging recognition of remittances as a crucial factor influencing cooking-fuel choices in the energy-transition literature,there is a paucity of studies examining this influence in Nigeria.Using data from 4400 agricultural households sourced from the fourth wave of the Nigerian Living Standard Measurement Survey data sets,this study examined the influence of remittances on cooking-fuel choices,among other factors in Nigeria.Employing descriptive statistics and the multinomial logit regression model,the analysis reveals that traditional cooking fuels,including wood,crop residue and animal dung,continue to dominate the cooking-fuel landscape.The empirical result of the multinomial logit model showed that households that receive remittances are more likely to use modern cooking fuels.Furthermore,wealthier,more educated households with access to electricity are more likely to use modern and transitional cooking fuels than traditional cooking fuels.Based on the findings,the study suggests the incentivization of remittances into the country through the reduction in associated transaction costs and accelerated public infrastructural investment in affordable electricity and good road networks to connect rural areas to gas-supply networks to drive the transition to modern cooking energy.Additionally,educational and awareness campaigns about the health risks associated with traditional cooking energy,particularly indoor air pollution,should be encouraged,especially in rural areas.

An examination of thematic research,development,and trends in remote sensing applied to conservation agriculture

Conservation agriculture seeks to reduce environmental degradation through sustainable management of agricultural land.Since the 1990s,agricultural research has been conducted using remote sensing technologies;however,few previous reviews have been conducted focused on different conservation management practices.Most of the previous literature has focused on the application of remote sensing in agriculture without focusing exclusively on conservation practices,with some only providing a narrative review,others using biophysical remote sensing for quantitative estimates of the bio-geo-chemical-physical properties of soils and crops,and few others focused on single agricultural management practices.This paper used the preferred reporting items for systematic review(PRISMA)methodology to examine the last 30 years of thematic research,development,and trends associated with remote sensing technologies and methods applied to conservation agriculture research at various spatial and temporal scales.A set of predefined key concepts and keywords were applied in three databases:Scopus,Web of Science,and Google Scholar.A total of 188 articles were compiled for initial examination,where 68 articles were selected for final analysis and grouped into cover crops,crop residue,crop rotation,mulching,and tillage practices.Publications on conservation agriculture research using remote sensing have been increasing since 1991 and peaked at 10 publications in 2020.Among the 68 articles,94%used a pixel-based,while only 6%used an object-based classification method.Prior to 2005,tillage practices were abundantly studied,then crop residue was a focused theme between 2004 and 2012.From 2012 to 2020,the focus shifted again to cover crops.Ten spectral indices were used in 76%of the 68 studies.This examination offered a summary of the new potential and identifies crucial future research needs and directions that could improve the contribution of remote sensing to the provision of long-term operational services for various conservation agriculture applications.

Mechanization and efficiency in rice production in China

Agricultural mechanization and custom machine services have developed rapidly in China,which can influence rice production efficiency in the future.We calculate technical efficiency,allocative efficiency,and scale efficiency using data collected in 2015 from a face-to-face interview survey of 450 households that cultivated 3096 plots located in the five major rice-producing provinces of China.We use a one-step stochastic frontier model to calculate technical efficiency and regress the efficiency scores on socio-demographic and physical land characteristics to find the influencing variables.Variables influencing technical efficiency are compared at three different phases of rice cultivation.We also calculate technical efficiency by using the Heckman Selection Model,which addresses technological heterogeneity and self-selection bias.Results indicate that:(1)the average value of technical efficiency using a one-step stochastic frontier model was found to be 0.74.When self-selection bias is accounted for using the Heckman Selection Model,the average value of the technical efficiency increases to 0.80;(2)mechanization at the chemical application phase has a positive effect on technical efficiency,but mechanization does not affect efficiency at the plowing and harvesting phases;(3)machines are overused relative to both land and labor,and high machine input use on the small size of landholding has resulted in allocative inefficiency;(4)rice farmers are overwhelmingly operating at a sub-optimal scale.Future policies should focus on encouraging farmland transfer in rural areas to achieve scale efficiency and allocative efficiency while promoting mechanization at the chemical application phase of rice cultivation to improve technical efficiency.

Performance of Smallholder Dairy Farming in Nakuru County, Kenya

The Kenya dairy sub-sector has been undergoing developments since the 1980s in the areas of adoption of intensive dairy farming, especially zero grazing. There have been concerted efforts by the government and other development partners to commercialize the sub-sector so as to make it more profitable to farmers, especially smallholder farmers, but the profitability in the sector continues to be variable with some smallholder farmers making losses. The causes of the varying profits have not been empirically established, with the influence of institutional arrangements and financial factors contributing to this inconsistency not fully established. This study dwelt on establishing the critical institutional arrangements and financial factors that constrain the profitability of smallholder dairy farmers in Nakuru County. A multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select respondents. Data were collected by structured interviews at the farm level. Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA） was used to come up with profit efficiency rankings among the farmers, and the Frontier Model was used to establish the factors that constrain profit efficiency. The mean efficiency according to the results was 86%. The farm and farmer characteristics that were significant in explaining profitability efficiency according to the frontier results were： feeding system, breed type, and gender. The financial characteristics included debt amount and debt asset ratio. Additionally, issues of trust were also found to have an effect on profitability, and they included trust in local buyer price, trust in unit of measurement of institutional buyer, and trust in unit of measurement of middlemen.

Bio-Based Paths to Prosperity for Small and Medium Forest Landowners: A Pilot Study in Southwest Louisiana

Forest biomass has great potential as a biofuel feedstock, but information on forest owner perceptions of using forest biomass to produce bioenergy is lacking. In this case study, we surveyed 3500 small to medium private forest landowners in southwestern Louisiana to better understand their attitudes and perceptions towards harvesting forest biomass for bioenergy production. Results indicate that landowners: 1) were positive about utilizing biomass for bioenergy, 2) believe viable biomass conversion technologies exist, 3) had antagonistic or neutral attitudes towards some technological, economic, and policy issues associated with using forest biomass for bioenergy due in part to lack of information or knowledge, and 4) felt biomass is a low-value product compared to traditional products. Landowners’ perceptions of participating in bio-based activities and markets vary among age and ownership size, and 51% of forest landowners were willing to participate in management activities specifically geared for bioenergy production.

Assessing the Impacts of Variable Input Costs on Maize Production in Cameroon

Agricultural inputs are necessities in a production process just as food is a necessity for human survival. Production comes with the use of inputs. The cultivation of maize in Cameroon is predominantly dominated by smallholder farmers who use traditional methods and face drudgery. The current production level of maize in the country is declining and to meet consumption requirements, huge quantities of the commodity are imported. This study questions the impacts of variable input costs on maize production. Inputs are building blocks of production costs;it is therefore important for maize farmers to be alerted on the effective use of farm inputs in order to obtain higher returns. Data were collected with the use of a structured questionnaire. They were analysed using descriptive statistics and OLS Regression techniques. Results show that on average per hectare, each maize farmer spends USD10.12 on seeds, USD28.90 on fertilizer, USD8.90 on labour, and USD13.28 on herbicides. The regression results show that estimated coefficients of unit costs of fertilizer, herbicides and labour were negative but insignificant while land and hybrid seeds were positive. Input subsidy is recommended as a policy instrument to lower prices paid by farmers.

Pastoralists’ Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change and Determinant Factors in Korahey Zone, Ethiopia

Climate change is a global phenomenon that involves the long-term fluctuation of the earth’s climate system. Specifically, climate change is acknowledged as a vital challenge to pastoralist production systems. However, limited research attention was given to exploring the determinants of climate change adaptation strategies in the southeastern part of Ethiopia. Thus, the study tried to assess the predictors of pastoralists’ climate change adaptation strategies in the Korahey zone of Ethiopia. The study was based on a survey of 215 representative pastoralist households were randomly selected from the three districts of the Korahey zone. To achieve the objective, household questionnaire surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions were conducted to collect data at the household as well as the district level. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics like percentage, frequency, mean, and inferential statistics (multinomial logit model). Multinomial logit was employed to analyze the determinant factors of pastoralists’ adaptation strategies to climate change. The finding shows that household pastoralists adopt different climate change adaptation strategies in their locality;from this herd diversification (10.7%), storage of fodder (14.4%), mobility (23.7%), Livestock off-take (12%), saving scheme (8.8%) and household and herd splitting (15.3%) are the major pastoralists’ adaptation strategies to climate change in the study area. The results of the multinomial logit model show that sex, age, family size, access to climate information, access to credit services, access to extension services and livestock ownership were identified as the major determinants factors of climate change adaptation strategies in Korahey zone. The study recommended that the local government, planners and decision-makers should give awareness regarding the role of information in the pastoralists’ adoption of climate change adaptation strategies and enhance extension services to support pastoralists in their adaptation efforts.

Jordanian Horticultural Export Competitiveness from Water Perspective

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the relationships between the productive process and the commercial trade with water resources used by them. For that the goal is to find out, by means of the estimation of water embodied in the exported crops which have the highest export competitiveness and lower water consumption. The finding contradicts not only the comparative advantages theory but also the resources sustainability logic. This conclusion is derived from the great exports of water via tomatoes and low profitable vegetables from producers＇ perspective but not economical from social perspectives as shown in domestic resource coefficient. The diversion between financial and economic profitability is due to heavily irrigation water subsidy. The results confirm that Jordan utilizes large amounts of water in its exports, and in turn, it does not export goods with low water requirements. The potential saving would be very significant and agricultural sector need to modify the use of water to a great extent in order to reach significant water savings and an environmental sustainability. Jordan has to implement policies that reduced, or even abandoned, the export and the production of water-intensive crops. Therefore, they have to be replaced with either imports or crops that optimize the water resources.

A Stakeholder-Guided Collaborative Approach to Improve Water Quality in a Nutrient Surplus Watershed

The need for water quality improvement in nutrient surplus watersheds is a pressing issue on the agenda of some government agencies and environmental organizations. Including the water quality perceptions of different affected stakeholder groups in the decision-making process may help in addressing this issue. Unfortunately, there is a lack of published research focusing specifically on understanding how Arkansas stakeholders’ perceptions of water quality issues can be used to build and implement comprehensive and workable water quality management plans. Therefore, the objective of this study was to use a stakeholder-guided collaborative approach to help research and outreach personnel to understand water quality perceptions of key stakeholders and to integrate stakeholder engagement in both the decision-making process and in the implementation of water quality management strategies within the Lincoln Lake Watershed in northwest Arkansas. Two key stakeholder groups (i.e., Locals—residents and agricultural producers—and Outsiders—water quality specialist across the state) were surveyed to assess their perceptions regarding: 1) causes of watershed water quality problems, 2) parties responsible for water quality improvement, 3) effectiveness and affordability of best management practices to reduce water quality degradation, and 4) the stakeholders’ interactions with county, state and federal government. A total of 209 complete surveys (49% response rate) were received. Survey responses were compared to determine if significant differences existed between the two stakeholder groups’ perceptions of water quality performing Fisher’s exact tests. Results from the study showed that water quality is still perceived as an issue in the Lincoln Lake Watershed. Significant differences were found between the two stakeholder groups’ perceptions regarding: 1) different groups’ contributions to water degradation, 2) groups’ responsibilities for cleanup, 3) effectiveness of five best management practices, 4) affordability of four best management practices, and 5) what level of government (i.e., county, state, federal) best represents Locals’ water quality needs and concerns. The lessons learned from this collaborative approach helped identifying Locals’ important knowledge gaps regarding water quality and best management practices effectiveness. Consequently, awareness and education campaigns in conjunction with a stewardship recognition program were conducted to encourage appropriate water conservation strategies within the Lincoln Lake watershed and its adjacent areas.

Farmers’ Ability to Pay for Irrigation Water in the Jordan Valley

This study aims to analyze the famers’ ability to pay for irrigation water in Jordan Valley to investigate the farmer capacity to cope with increasing the water tariff. The residual imputation approach was used based on the enterprise budget for crops cultivated in different geographical locations in Jordan Valley. This methodology deducts the contribution of non-water production inputs, annualized capital cost and fixed costs from the gross output and attributes the remaining value to water. The resulting water value is an indication of the economic efficiency of water and a proxy for the maximum farmer’s ability to pay for water. The result shows that cucumber has the highest ability to pay (JD 2.26 m-3);the percentage of water cost to total cost is 1.1%. This low percent does not encourage farmers to save water. The weighted average for maximum farmers’ ability to pay for irrigation water in Jordan valley is estimated at JD 0.76 m-3. The result shows the farmer’s ability to pay for water used in plastic house is JD 1.34 m-3 compared to JD 0.62 m-3 for open field. The estimated value of desalinated brackish water is JD 0.59 m-3 while the average desalination cost is JD 0.28 m-3. Therefore, the current practice of installing Reverse Osmosis units to irrigate high value cash crops by some farmers is economically rational, since water value is twice the desalination cost of one cubic meter. If farmers have to pay the cost of O&M, they need to pay at least JD 0.065 m-3. Increasing the water prices could encourage more efficient water use, shifts to higher value crops, adoption of plastic houses, and encourage desalination of brackish water.

Estimating farmers’stated willingness to accept pay for ecosystem services:case of Lake Naivasha watershed Payment for Ecosystem Services scheme-Kenya

Introduction:Lake Naivasha watershed is recognized for its contribution to Kenya’s national gross domestic product from the export of horticultural products.Commercial horticultural investment downstream depends mainly on the Lake’s water.The fresh water lake lacks surface outflow,and its recharge depends on river Malewa flowing from upper catchment in Aberdare ranges.However,unsustainable land use practices in the upper catchment has led to increasing sediment loading and pollution in river Malewa which affects water quality in the Lake downstream.Payment for Environmental Services(PES)scheme has been initiated as an alternative incentive approach to motivate upstream smallholder farmers adopt sustainable land use practices for conservation of watershed services.This paper analyzes willingness to accept pay(WTA)as proxy economic measure of environmental service(ES)value and determines socio-economic factors influencing farmers WTA for watershed conservation.We analyzed the WTA and characterized WTA underlying socio-economic determinants in two PES intervention sites in Kenya.Methods:The objective of this study was to estimate WTA and determine socio-economic factors influencing WTA.Semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 200 PES farmers through face-to-face interview.We applied contingent valuation(CV)and logistic regression for data analyses to elicit farmer’s WTA estimates to implement PES farm practices and determine socio-economic factors influencing WTA,respectively.Results:Results revealed over 90% of respondents were farmers and 60% had primary level of education.Average household farm size was 2.305 acres and family size was six members on average.We recorded a monthly marginal household increase in gross income from Kshs.6891.969(US$68.92)before PES to Kshs.11,011.48(US$110.12)with PES interventions.The estimated annual lowest and highest WTA for PES farm practices were at Kshs.8835(US$88.35)for grass strip and Kshs.21,847.500(US$218.48)for fallowing.Household socio-economic characteristics had significant influence on WTA among farmers.Conclusions:The study revealed heterogeneity in WTA estimates among PES implementing farmers.The WTA reflects opportunity cost to farmers.We recommend PES mechanism as a policy tool to internalize negative watershed externalities to provide ecosystem services.

Persistence in tillage decisions: Aggregate data analysis

The Emission Gap Report 2013 from the United Nations Environment Program showed that adopting conservation tillage such as no-till,as an alternative to conventional tillage,contributes significantly to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration.However,substantial amounts of soil carbon are lost when farmers interrupt continuous use of conservation tillage with conventional tillage.Conservation tillage is spreading,but little is known about the behavioral persistence in tillage decisions.To address the gap in the literature,we estimate county-specific Markov models of tillage-crop choices,and use the predicted probabilities of alternative two-and three-year tillage rotations to evaluate spatial variation and temporal persistence in conservation tillage adoption for the state of lowa (U.S).We find that the county-average probabilities of continuous conservation tillage range between 0.133 and 0.295,and vary significantly among crop rotations.We also find a statistically strong positive effect of the incidence of the highly erodible land on the county-average use of continuous conservation tillage.Our results underscore the importance of dynamic modeling for understanding behavioral persistence in tillage decisions,and the interdependence between farmers' crop and tillage rotations.