Impact of US Financial Sanctions on the Dollar's International

In 2022,the United States stepped up its sanctions on Russia.Most notably,it restricted the flow of the Russian Central Bank's foreign exchange(forex)assets,using financial administrative power as a source of strategic leverage.This move should have reduced the appeal of US dollar assets but in reality has not accelerated as expected the decline of the greenback as a store of value.The US dollar's share of global forex reserves increased instead of decreased during 2022 and 2023.Despite the rise of economic costs caused by tightened US financial sanctions,countries that recognize the geopolitical role of the United States have further accepted the dollar's international status;their continued willingness to live with the dollar's“security premium”has given a fillip to the US dollar in the short term,boosting its appeal as a reserve currency.Meanwhile,de-dollarization of forex reserves has yet to reach a sufficient scale,thus falling short of significantly challenging the dollar's reign.From a longer-term perspective,as economic and security conditions shift,countries that accept the dollar's international role or seek de-dollarization may change their choices.As a result,four possible scenarios may arise:(i)the preeminence of the US dollar remains unthreatened;(ii)the international monetary system splits into blocs;(iii)the international monetary system fragments;and(iv)the dollar loses its throne.The author believes that the last scenario is the most likely outcome.

The US Election in 2024 and the Trend of the Ukraine Crisis

The crisis in Ukraine,which has dragged on for more than two years,and whether military aid to Ukraine should continue are major issues debated and fought over by the two parties in the United States prior to the 2024 election.Regarding whether to continue to aid Ukraine,various political forces in the United States have chosen sides in the election campaign,which can be roughly divided into the“aid camp”and the“stop-aid camp”according to their positions.

Imposition of Energy Sanctions by the Western World on Russia in the Context of Geopolitical Conflicts:the Logic Behind and Its Implications

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis on February 24,2022,the Western world led by the US has imposed rounds of extensive and intensive sanctions against Russia,among which energy sanctions are a powerful policy instrument.

美国两党对台政策的差异及影响

In the context of the whole-of-government strategic approach the United States(US)currently applies toward China,the Democratic and Republican parties have reached a consensus on“using Taiwan to contain China,”compromising the integrity of the one-China policy and seriously eroding the political foundations of China–US relations.However,considerable differences persist between the two parties regarding Taiwan policy.The Republicans,as represented by Donald Trump,have appeared more radical and more straightforward,whereas the incumbent Biden administration of the Democratic Party has shown significant duplicity.Democrats in the US Congress have introduced relatively fewer Taiwan-related bills than their Republican counterparts;by comparison,some Republican lawmakers have even introduced resolutions calling for resuming“diplomatic ties”with Taiwan.The Taiwan policy gap between the Democratic and Republican parties mirrors their differences on China policy:liberal think tanks advocate for“strategic ambiguity”on Taiwan,but conservatives back“strategic clarity.”And the gap also ref lects the shifting lobbying priorities of Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party.Looking ahead to the upcoming decade,the Democratic and Republican par ties will continue to compete to“support Taiwan,”thus rendering the Taiwan question even more dangerous.After 2024,if Democrats remain in power,they may hasten the“internationalization”of the Taiwan question;otherwise,if Republicans return to the White House and both chambers of Congress,China and the US may find their relationship even more confrontational.Although the political situation in Taiwan will very unlikely have any fundamental impact on the Taiwan Strait,it will,to a certain extent,influence the intensity of China–US rivalry.

美国在内部纷争中走到新的“十字路口”

At the beginning of 2023, the Eurasia Group, a US-based global political risk consultancy, named “the fragmentation of the United States” as one of the top ten global risks in 2023. Looking back at 2023, there is no better keyword to characterize the United States than “divided.”

美国制造业回流政策:实施效果与制约因素

For over a decade,successive US administrations have made manufacturing reshoring a priority of their policy agendas,with multi-pronged measures to bring both manufacturing operations and jobs back to America.With economic,political,strategic,and security considerations behind the push,it has witnessed some progress but still falls short of expectations.Driven by the US reshoring policy,the race for local manufacturing among major global economies will intensify their competition and fragment the once-globalizing supply chain cooperation network.

The Underlying Motivations and Long-Term Trends of the US Decoupling of China-US Science and Technology Relations

Since 2018,the US government has adopted a range of restrictive measures on China-US science and technology exchange,as it strives for a decoupling strategy against China.This strategy has brought about historic change in China-US science and technology relations.The US government has set out to obstruct the free flow of technology,data,capital,markets,and talents between China and the United States,thereby changing the basic rationale of China-US science and technology cooperation.The US has multiple underlying motivations for implementing this strategy including recognizing the security threats posed by China’s cutting-edge technology development,treating China as a competitor in global science and technology diplomacy,prompting the backflow of the technological industrial chain,and the strengthened industrial competition between the two countries.Decoupling is one of the competition strategies of the United States.It is aimed at ensuring a favorable position for their national innovation systems,particularly in China-US competition.However,the limitations of the decoupling strategy may not allow the US to achieve what it desires.These limitations also provide space for the two countries to ease their competitive relationship.

Young American China Watchers Views on China

In this paper,the author has made a thorough study over the new generation of American China Watchers.Most of the pages are devoted to a detailed comparison between the old generation and the young generation of American China Watchers regarding to their background,education,and views over China.At the end of the paper,the author also gives some policy suggestions for both the Chinese and U.S. government based on the findings in this study.

Assessment of China's International Environment and U.S. Strategic Trend

It is of great significance to have a clear understanding of the international environment that China faces. But this is an uneasy job. Since September 11, the world situation has become so complicated that it is hard to grasp its essence even with painstaking efforts. To judge such an already complicated international environment from China’s perspective adds more difficulties, for different people usually have different views due to the different angles from which they see the situation and different methods they adopt. This, understandably, leads to hot debates within the Chinese academic circles. To provide a stage for exchange of views, at the invitation of the CIR Expert Forum, some well-known scholars and experts on international relations from Beijing gathered to hold a symposium on November 5, 2002, with the theme of "How to assess the international environment that China faces". The speeches at the symposium will be published in two installments. Following are the first half.

A Study of the European Union’s Path for Constructing Digital Governance Rules and the Logical Implications of the Path

The European Union(EU)seeks to build a Europe fit for the digital age.For this purpose,the EU has accelerated the process of catching up with digital technology and issued a number of legal and regulatory documents to establish a digital governance rule regime with EU characteristics.This paper analyzes the EU’s path towards the construction of digital governance rules.This path is composed of three aspects,i.e.,strict digital supervision,differentiation of the free market,and multi-stakeholder governance.This three-step path has intrinsic logical implications.That is,strict digital supervision is applied to defend the EU’s unified market and values;differentiation of the free market takes the principle of adequate protection as the core to make the EU an exporter of rules;multi-stakeholder governance brings multiple stakeholders together in the governance to deal with the ethical anomie that arises during the use of big data.By setting up a series of digital governance rules,the EU seeks to achieve rule dominance to gain regulatory power for global digital governance.However,due to multiple constraints,there is a long way to go,and there are obstacles in the way.

Changes and Trends in the Independence of the US Federal Reserve Following the Financial Crisis

In 2018, US President Donald Trump repeatedly and publicly criticized the US Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, breaking the long-established precedent for presidents to refrain from intervening in monetary policy and putting the independence of the Federal Reserve into question. However, this is only the latest development of a longer process: since the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has been gradually losing its independence, in a quiet and perhaps permanent way. There are several reasons for this trend: the Federal Reserve’s performance during the financial crisis undermined its credibility, the consolidation of political factors arranged against its independence, and the consequences of the financial crisis weakened the economic foundation for its independence. Trump’s rise to power has only strengthened these factors, bringing an additional loss of independence, which will have a profound impact on the economy, society, and politics.

An Analysis of China's Power Status and International Standing

Many Chinese scholars have described China as the world＇s second biggest power after the U.S.. This is based on two facts. First, China overtook Japan in total economic output measured by GDP in 2010 to become the world＇s second biggest economy. Some scholars argue that China still lags behind the U.S. in comprehensive national power and in this sense it is also ranked second） The other is that Sino-U.S. relations are frequently described as the rise and fall of big powers, especially when referring to the Asia-Pacific region. It is the latest example of how relations between a rising power and one struggling to maintain its status have been so complex in the long history of international relations. While many people talk about the possibility that China will overtake the U.S. in the future, others talk about a G2.2 If we look closely at global trends and changes to China＇ s international environment, if we examine what exactly we mean by power status, we will have a much deeper understanding of China＇ s current power status from which we can build a solid foundation for this country＇ s foreign strategy and diplomacy.

Risks and Path Choices of the Tapering of Federal Reserve QE and Its Impact on China

In December 2013,the Federal Open Market Committee （FOMC） formally announced that it would wind down the size of its large-scale asset purchase program.This formally set in motion the exit of quantitative easing （QE）.However,at present,the American unemployment rate is still relatively high,the real estate market is gloomy,inflation is too low,the balance sheet is facing an unexpected increase in risks,and policies are confionted with cost pressures.Under such circumstances,the Fed is faced with multiple challenges in the tapering of QE.QE policy has made great contributions to helping the United States to shake off financial crisis,and the safe and smooth exit of the policy is of the utmost importance to the recovery of the U.S.economy and the reshaping of U.S.advantages.In addition,the Fed＇s monetary policy reversal will engender spillover risks and challenges for China＇s economy.

Why Do Ordinary Americans Not Feel Recovered?

If the U.S.economy is getting better,why can’t ordinary Americans feel it?Given the unemployment and economic statistics being touted of late,shouldn’t voters have more confidence in the president and his party as the November 2016 general elections loom?Even in 2014 as the country grew further away from recession lows,outshining economies in most

“Strategic Reassurance” and the Future of China-U.S. Relations

"Strategic reassurance," a new concept in Obama's China policy,should be fostered bilaterally by dialogue designed to highlight and reinforce the areas of common interests while addressing the sources of mistrust directly.Yet in practice it seems that U.S.strategic reassurance has contrasted all China's core interests.The United States and China must recognize their different social systems and asymmetrical national strength in seeking to realize strategic stability.Crisis control requires sophisticated management of both side,especially on sensitive issues like weapons sales,the Dalai Lama,and the South China Sea dispute.

“Controllable Ban-lifting”:Assessment of U.S.Policy on Japan's Exercise of Collective Defense

As Japan grows to be a major economy, the U.S. has pressured it to play a bigger role in the international security system. The U.S.regards its alliance with Japan as bedrock for security in the Asia Pacific region, but because the function and status of the alliance are asymmetric, the U.S. has the upper hand. Whereas the U.S. has the responsibility to protect Japan if it is attacked, the opposite does not apply.

U.S. Election Politics and the Normalization of US-Cuban Relations

The resumption of diplomatic relations between the United States and Cuba is not only a key result of Obama's "reaching-out" diplomacy but is also closely connected to US election politics. The US embargo on Cuba will hopefully be lifted soon unless some political hurdle emerges. Even so, normalization of US-Cuban relations still has a long way to go.

China and the Changing World——Summary of the International Seminar in Commemoration of the 30th Anniversary of the CICIR (Part I)

To celebrate its 30th anniversary, the China Institutes for Contemporary International Relations hosted a two-day seminar titled "The Changing world and China" on September 4-5 in Beijing. The first-day seminar was held in the Shangri-la Hotel. Mr. Zhang Zhijun, Chinese

Biden’s Infrastructure Plan and American Long-term Competitiveness

US President Joe Biden signed into law the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act,starting a new round of large-scale infrastructure construction in the United States.Biden’s team calls it a“once-in-a-generation investment”in American infrastructure and competitiveness,which will determine whether the US can win“the competition of the 21 st century.”Biden’s infrastructure plan is in two parts:Build Back Better domestically and Build Back Better World globally.It attempts to improve national competitiveness and restore the foundation of American hegemony by coordinating shortand long-term goals,soft and hard infrastructure,and the internal and external layout.Thus far,there is a big gap between Biden’s ambitious infrastructure plan and its implementation;political obstacles are the biggest problem with Biden’s infrastructure plan.

Obama's Legacy The Foreign Policy of the Late-Term Obama Administration

The year 2014 was a tipping point for the Barack Obama Administration--that was the year when it strove to forge a legacy of the Obarna era but came up against challenges arising from major changes that were taking place internationally and domestically. The Administration was then focused on maintaining a fragile balance between creating this legacy and responding to these challenges. Obama stuck to his fundamental principles when dealing with overseas affairs, but he also came up with new responses. The dynamic balance struck between these two formed the basis of the global strategy of the late-term Obama Administration. The Administration＇s focus at this time highlights the dilemma it faced in forging a legacy. Further, the foreign policy of Obama and Trump are actually not so different; they both supported some degree of isolationism with a focus on domestic issues.