Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5)

Based on experiments with the Community Earth System Model, version 1(Community Atmosphere Model, version 5)[CESM1(CAM5)], and an observational dataset, we found that CESM1-CAM5 is able to reproduce global monsoon(GM)features, including the patterns of monsoon precipitation and monsoon domains, the magnitude of GM precipitation(GMP,the local summer precipitation), GM area(GMA), and GM percentage(the ratio of the local summer precipitation to annual precipitation). Under the Paris Agreement temperature goals, the GM in CESM1-CAM5 displays the following changes:(1)The GMA is ambiguous under the 1.5℃ temperature goal and increases under the 2.0℃ temperature goal. The increase mainly results from a change in the monsoon percentage.(2) The GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon precipitation all significantly increase under both the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ goals. The increases are mainly due to the enhancement of humidity and evaporation.(3) The percentages of GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon feature little change under the temperature goals.(4) The lengths of the GM, land monsoon and ocean monsoon are significantly prolonged under the temperature goals.The increase in precipitation during the monsoon withdrawal month mainly accounts for the prolonged monsoons. Regarding the differences between the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ temperature goals, it is certain that the GMP displays significant discrepancies.In addition, a large-scale enhancement of ascending motion occurs over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and South China under a warming climate, whereas other monsoon areas experience an overall decline in ascending motion. This leads to an extraordinary wetting over Asian monsoon areas.

GIS-based Analysis for Hotspot Identification of Tradeoff Between Ecosystem Services： A Case Study in Yanhe Basin, China

Although the quantification and valuation of ecosystem services have been studied for a long time, few studies have specifi- cally focused on the quantification of tradeoffs between ecosystem services and tradeoff hotspots, Based on previous studies of ecosys- tem service assessment, we proposed a feasible method to analyze the tradeoffs between ecosystem services, including determination of their relationship, quantification of tradeoffs, and identification of tradeoff hotspots. Potential influencing factors were then further ana- lyzed. The Yanhe Basin in the Loess Plateau was selected as an example to demonstrate the application process. Firstly, the amounts of net primary production （NPP） and water yield （WY） in 2000 and 2008 were estimated by using biophysical models, Secondly, correla- tion analysis was used to indicate the tradeoffs between NPP and WY. Thirdly, tradeoff index （TINpp/wy） was established to quantify the extent of tradeoffs between NPP and WY, and the average value of TINpp/wy is 24.4 g/（mm·m2） for the Yanhe Basin between 2000 and 2008. Finally, the tradeoff hotspots were identified. The results indicated that the area of lowest tradeoff index concentrated in the mid- dle part of the Yanhe Basin and marginal areas of the southern basin. Map overlapping was used for preliminary analysis to seek poten- tial influencing factors, and the results showed that shrub was the best suited for growing in the Yanhe Basin, but also was a potential irtfluencing factor for formulatiort of the tradeoff hotspots. The concept of tradeoff index could also be used to quantify the degree of synergy between different ecosystem services. The method to identify the tradeoff hotspots could help us to narrow the scope of study area for further research on the relationship among ecosystem services and concentrate on the potential factors for formation of tradeoff between ecosystem services, enhance the capacity to maintain the sustainability of ecosystem.

A Comparative Study on the Dominant Factors Responsible for the Weaker-than-expected El Ni?o Event in 2014

Anomalous warming occurred in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific in early May 2014, attracting much attention to the possible occurrence of an extreme E1 Nifio event that year because of its similarity to the situation in early 1997. However, the subsequent variation in sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） during summer 2014 in the tropical Pacific was evidently different to that in 1997, but somewhat similar to the situation of the 1990 aborted E1 Nifio event. Based on NCEP （National Centers for Environmental Prediction） oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis data, the physical processes responsible for the strength of E1 Nifio events are examined by comparing the dominant factors in 2014 in terms of the preceding instability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and westerly wind bursts （WWBs） with those in 1997 and 1990, separately. Although the unstable ocean-atmosphere system formed over the tropical Pacific in the preceding winter of 2014, the strength of the preceding instability was relatively weak. Weak oceanic eastward-propagating downwelling Kelvin waves were forced by the weak WWBs over the equatorial western Pacific in March 2014, as in February 1990. The consequent positive upper-oceanic heat content anomalies in the spring of 2014 induced only weak positive SSTAs in the central-eastern Pacific-unfavorable for the subsequent generation of summertime WWB sequences. Moreover, the equatorial western Pacific was not cooled, indicating the absence of positive Bjerknes feedback in early summer 2014. Therefore, the development of E1 Nifio was suspended in summer 2014.

Evaluating the Formation Mechanisms of the Equatorial Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

Based on the historical and RCP8.5 runs of the multi-model ensemble of 32 models participating in CMIP5, the present study evaluates the formation mechanisms for the patterns of changes in equatorial Pacific SST under global warming. Two features with complex formation processes, the zonal E1 Nifio-like pattern and the meridional equatorial peak warm- ing （EPW）, are investigated. The climatological evaporation is the main contributor to the E1 Nifio-like pattern, while the ocean dynamical thermostat effect plays a comparable negative role. The cloud-shortwave-radiation-SST feedback and the weakened Walker circulation play a small positive role in the E1 Nifio-like pattern. The processes associated with ocean dynamics are confined to the equator. The climatological evaporation is also the dominant contributor to the EPW pattern, as suggested in previous studies. However, the effects of some processes are inconsistent with previous studies. For example, changes in the zonal heat advection due to the weakened Walker circulation have a remarkable positive contribution to the EPW pattern, and changes in the shortwave radiation play a negative role in the EPW pattern.

Comparison of Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Vectors with Bred Vectors, Random Perturbations and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Strategies in a Barotropic Model

The breeding method has been widely used to generate ensemble perturbations in ensemble forecasting due to its simple concept and low computational cost. This method produces the fastest growing perturbation modes to catch the growing components in analysis errors. However, the bred vectors （BVs） are evolved on the same dynamical flow, which may increase the dependence of perturbations. In contrast, the nonlinear local Lyapunov vector （NLLV） scheme generates flow-dependent perturbations as in the breeding method, but regularly conducts the Gram-Schmidt reorthonormalization processes on the perturbations. The resulting NLLVs span the fast-growing perturbation subspace efficiently, and thus may grasp more com- ponents in analysis errors than the BVs. In this paper, the NLLVs are employed to generate initial ensemble perturbations in a barotropic quasi-geostrophic model. The performances of the ensemble forecasts of the NLLV method are systematically compared to those of the random pertur- bation （RP） technique, and the BV method, as well as its improved version--the ensemble transform Kalman filter （ETKF） method. The results demonstrate that the RP technique has the worst performance in ensemble forecasts, which indicates the importance of a flow-dependent initialization scheme. The ensemble perturbation subspaces of the NLLV and ETKF methods are preliminarily shown to catch similar components of analysis errors, which exceed that of the BVs. However, the NLLV scheme demonstrates slightly higher ensemble forecast skill than the ETKF scheme. In addition, the NLLV scheme involves a significantly simpler algorithm and less computation time than the ETKF method, and both demonstrate better ensemble forecast skill than the BV scheme.

Is the interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection pattern excited by the Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation?

The interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection （ID-CGT） pattern is the dominant circulation mode over the NH during boreal summer on the interdecadal time scale. Its temporal evolution is synchronous with that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. In this study, through analyzing the results of sensitivity experiments using five AGCMs driven by specified AMO-related SST anomalies （SSTAs） in the North Atlantic, the authors investigate whether the ID-CGT is excited by the AMO. Two out of the five models simulate the barotropic stationary wave pattern located along the westerly jet, suggesting that the ID-CGT pattern should be excited, at least partially, by the AMO- related SSTAs. Model results suggest that the ID-CGT pattern plays a role in linking the AMO and NH summer land SAT perturbations on the interdecadal time scale.

Experimental 15-day-lead statistical forecast of intraseasonal summer monsoon rainfall over Eastern China

This study utilizes daily Asian Precipitation–Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation（APHRODITE）gridded rainfall and the U.S.National Centers for Environmental PredictionDepartment of Energy reanalysis II products to examine the intraseasonal oscillations（ISOs）of rainfall over Eastern China during each summer of 1996,2002,and 2006.These three cases represent three typical spatial patterns of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China,with the strongest intraseasonal rainfall occurring over the middle and lower Yangtze Basin,southern Yangtze Basin,and Southeast China,respectively.The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China are dominated by both 30–60-and 10–20-day ISOs in each summer and are further modulated by the boreal summer ISOs（BSISOs）over the entire Asian summer monsoon region.The objective of this study is thus to apply the Bayesian wavelet-banding（WB）scheme to predicting intraseasonal rainfall over Eastern China.Several key factors associated with BSISOs are selected as predictors to experimentally develop a 15-day-lead statistical forecast.The forecast results show promise for the intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over Eastern China.Correlations generally greater than or equal to 0.6 are noted between the observed and predicted ISOs of rainfall over the major intraseasonal activity centers during each of the three summers.Such a high forecasting skill on intraseasonal timescales over various areas in Eastern China demonstrates the general usefulness of the WB scheme.

A Method for Alpine Wetland Delineation and Features of Border: Zoigê Plateau, China

Accurate wetland delineation is the basis of wetland definition and mapping, and is of great importance for wetland management and research. The Zoige Plateau on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was used as a research site for research on alpine wetland delineation. Several studies have analyzed the spatiotemporal pattern and dynamics of these alpine wetlands, but none have addressed the issues of wetland boundaries. The objective of this work was to discriminate the upper boundaries of alpine wetlands by coupling ecological methods and satellite observations. The combination of Landsat 8 images and supervised classification was an effective method for rapid identification of alpine wetlands in the Zoig6 Plateau. Wet meadow was relatively stable compared with hydric soils and wetland hydrology and could be used as a primary indicator for discriminating the upper boundaries of alpine wetlands. A slope of less than 4.5° could be used as the threshold value for wetland delineation. The normalized difference vegetation index （NDVI） in 434 field sites showed that a threshold value of 0.3 could distinguish grasslands from emergent marsh and wet meadow in September. The median normalized difference water index （NDWI） of emergent marsh remained more stable than that of wet meadow and grasslands during the period from September until July of the following year. The index of mean density in wet meadow zones was higher than the emergent and upland zones. Over twice the number of species occurred in the wet meadow zone compared with the emergent zone, and close to the value of upland zone. Alpine wetlands in the three reserves in 2014 covered 1175.19 kin2 with a classification accuracy of 75.6%. The combination of ecological methods and remote sensing technology will play an important role in wetland delineation at medium and small scales. The correct differentiation between wet meadow and grasslands is the key to improving the accuracy of future wetland delineation.

Evolution of Surface Sensible Heat over the Tibetan Plateau Under the Recent Global Warming Hiatus

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat（SH） over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau（CE-TP） under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH.During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature.Cloud–radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

A Preliminary Evaluation of Global and East Asian Cloud Radiative Effects in Reanalyses

Cloud radiative effects （CREs） at the top of the atmosphere （TOA） in three reanalysis datasets （the Eur- opean Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts In- terim Reanalysis （ERA-Interim）, the Japanese 55-yr Re- analysis Project （JRA-55）, and the Modem-Era Retro- spective Analysis for Research and Applications （MERRA）） are evaluated using recent satellite-based observations. The reanalyses can basically capture the spatial pattern of the annual mean shortwave CRE, but the global mean longwave CRE in ERA-interim and JRA55 is weaker than observed, leading to overestimations of the net CRE. Moreover, distinct CRE biases of the reanalyses occur in the Intertropical Convergence Zone （ITCZ）, coastal Pa- cific and Atlantic regions, and East Asia. Quantitative examination further indicates that the spatial correlations of CREs and TOA upward radiation fluxes with corre- sponding observations in ERA-Interim are better than in the other two reanalyses. Although MERRA has certain abilities in producing the magnitudes of global mean CREs, its performance in terms of spatial correlations in winter and summer are worse than for the other two re- analyses. The ability of JRA55 in reflecting CREs lies between the other two datasets. Compared to the global mean results, the spatial correlations of shortwave CRE in East Asia decrease and the biases of regional mean CREs increase in the three reanalyses. This implies that, cur- rently, it is still difficult to reproduce East Asian CREs based on these reanalyses. Relatively, ERA-Interim de- scribes the seasonal variation of East Asian CREs well, albeit weaker than observed. The present study also sug- gests that in-depth exploration of the ability of reanalysis data to describe aspects relating to cloud properties and rad- iation is needed usin~ more comprehensive observations.

Contributions to the Interannual Summer Rainfall Variability in the Mountainous Area of Central China and Their Decadal Changes

Using a high-resolution precipitation dataset,the present study detected that the mountainous area of central China(MACA)is a hotspot of ENSO’s impact on the summer rainfall variability.Further analysis suggests that both ENSO and atmospheric forcing make contributions to the summer rainfall variability in MACA.The dominant rainfall-related SST mode features as a seasonal transition from an El Niño-like warming in the preceding winter to a La Nina-like cooling in the following autumn,and it explains about 29%of the total variance of the rainfall during 1951–2018.It indicates that ENSO with a rapid phase transition is responsible for inducing summer rainfall anomalies in MACA.Besides,an upperlevel circumglobal wave mode in the Northern Hemisphere during summer also explains about 29%of the summer rainfall variance.Contributions of both the SST and the atmospheric modes have experienced interdecadal changes.The influence of the SST mode gradually increases and plays a dominant role in the recent decades,suggesting that ENSO with a rapid phase transition becomes more important for rainfall prediction in MACA.

Workflow-Based Platform Design and Implementation for Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Meteorological Data Service

In this paper, we present a set of best practices for workflow design and implementation for numerical weather prediction models and meteorological data service, which have been in operation in China Meteorological Administration (CMA) for years and have been proven effective in reliably managing the complexities of large-scale meteorological related workflows. Based on the previous work on the platforms, we argue that a minimum set of guidelines including workflow scheme, module design, implementation standards and maintenance consideration during the whole establishment of the platform are highly recommended, serving to reduce the need for future maintenance and adjustment. A significant gain in performance can be achieved through the workflow-based projects. We believe that a good workflow system plays an important role in the weather forecast service, providing a useful tool for monitoring the whole process, fixing the errors, repairing a workflow, or redesigning an equivalent workflow pattern with new components.

Interval of effective time-step size for the numerical computation of nonlinear ordinary differential equations

The computational uncertainty principle states that the numerical computation of nonlinear ordinary differential equations（ODEs） should use appropriately sized time steps to obtain reliable solutions.However,the interval of effective step size（IES） has not been thoroughly explored theoretically.In this paper,by using a general estimation for the total error of the numerical solutions of ODEs,a method is proposed for determining an approximate IES by translating the functions for truncation and rounding errors.It also illustrates this process with an example.Moreover,the relationship between the IES and its approximation is found,and the relative error of the approximation with respect to the IES is given.In addition,variation in the IES with increasing integration time is studied,which can provide an explanation for the observed numerical results.The findings contribute to computational step-size choice for reliable numerical solutions.

Impact of Global OceanicWarming on Winter Eurasian Climate

In the 20 th century, Eurasian warming was observed and was closely related to global oceanic warming(the first leading rotated empirical orthogonal function of annual mean sea surface temperature over the period 1901–2004). Here, large-scale patterns of covariability between global oceanic warming and circulation anomalies are investigated based on NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. In winter, certain dominant features are found, such as a positive pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), low-pressure anomalies over northern Eurasia, and a weakened East Asian trough. Numerical experiments with the CAM3.5, CCM3 and GFDL models are used to explore the contribution of global oceanic warming to the winter Eurasian climate. Results show that a positive NAO anomaly, low-pressure anomalies in northern Eurasia, and a weaker-than-normal East Asian trough are induced by global oceanic warming. Consequently, there are warmer winters in Europe and the northern part of East Asia. However, the Eurasian climate changes differ slightly among the three models. Eddy forcing and convective heating from those models may be the reason for the different responses of Eurasian climate.

Historical Change and Future Scenarios of Sea Level Rise in Macao and Adjacent Waters

Against a background of climate change, Macao is very exposed to sea level rise （SLR） because of its low elevation, small size, and ongoing land reclamation. Therefore, we evaluate sea level changes in Macao, both historical and, especially, possible future scenarios, aiming to provide knowledge and a framework to help accommodate and protect against future SLR. Sea level in Macao is now rising at an accelerated rate： 1.35 mm yr-1 over 1925-2010 and jumping to 4.2 mm yr I over 1970-2010, which outpaces the rise in global mean sea level. In addition, vertical land movement in Macao contributes little to local sea level change. In the future, the rate of SLR in Macao will be about 20% higher than the global average, as a consequence of a greater local warming tendency and strengthened northward winds. Specifically, the sea level is projected to rise 8-12, 22-51 and 35-118 cm by 2020, 2060 and 2100, respectively, depending on the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity. Under the --8.5 W m 2 Representative Concentration Pathway （RCP8.5） scenario the increase in sea level by 2100 will reach 65 118 cm--double that under RCP2.6. Moreover, the SLR will accelerate under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, while remaining at a moderate and steady rate under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. The key source of uncertainty stems from the emissions scenario and climate sensitivity, among which the discrepancies in SLR are small during the first half of the 21st century but begin to diverge thereafter.

Drought in Southwest China: A Review

The clustering of severe and sustained droughts in Southwest China(SWC)during the last decade has resulted in tremendous losses,including crop failure,a lack of drinking water,ecosystem destruction,health problems,and even deaths.Various attempts have been made to explore the variability and causes of drought in SWC.Here,the authors summarize and integrate this accumulated but fragmented knowledge.On the whole,general agreement has been reached on the evolution of drought in SWC,which has become more frequent and intense during the past 50 years and is projected to continue throughout the 21st century.However,it is unclear and even disputable as to what and how sea surface temperatures and circulation oscillation patterns affect the drought condition.Meanwhile,the presence of strong nonlinearity places considerable challenges in both understanding and predicting drought in SWC.Therefore,much remains to be learned concerning the mechanisms responsible for drought disasters in SWC and accurate forecast practice.In addition to pursuing research on factors and processes involved in drought formation,above all,there is an urgent need to develop appropriate strategies and plans for mitigating the threats of drought.

The first all-season sample set for mapping global land cover with Landsat-8 data

We report the world's first all-season training and validation sample sets for global land cover classification with Landsat-8 data.Prior to this,such samples were only available at a single date primarily from the growing season.It is unknown how much limitation such a single-date sample has to mapping global land cover in other seasons of the year.To answer this question,we selected available Landsat-8 images from four seasons and collected training and validation samples from them.We compared the performances of training samples in different seasons using Random Forest algorithm.We found that the use of training samples from any individual season would result in the best overall classification accuracy when validated by samples in the same season.The global overall accuracy from combined best seasonal results was 67.2% when classifying the 11 Level-1 classes in the Finer Resolution Observation and Monitoring of Global Land Cover(FROM-GLC) classification system.The use of training samples from all seasons(named all-season training sample set hereafter) produced an overall accuracy of 67.0%.We also tested classification within 10° latitude 60° longitude zones using all-season training subsample within each zone and obtained an overall accuracy of 70.2%.This indicates that properly grouped subsamples in space can help improve classification accuracies.All the results in this study seem to suggest that it is possible to use an all-season training sample set to reach global optimality with universal applicability in classifying images acquired at any time of a year for global land cover mapping.

Seasonal Variation and Physical Properties of the Cloud System over Southeastern China Derived from Cloud Sat Products

Based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP） and Climate Prediction Center（CPC） Merged Analysis of Precipitation（CMAP） data and Cloud Sat products, the seasonal variations of the cloud properties, vertical occurrence frequency, and ice water content of clouds over southeastern China were investigated in this study. In the Cloud Sat data, a significant alternation in high or low cloud patterns was observed from winter to summer over southeastern China. It was found that the East Asian Summer Monsoon（EASM） circulation and its transport of moisture leads to a conditional instability, which benefits the local upward motion in summer, and thereby results in an increased amount of high cloud. The deep convective cloud centers were found to coincide well with the northward march of the EASM, while cirrus lagged slightly behind the convection center and coincided well with the outflow and meridional wind divergence of the EASM. Analysis of the radiative heating rates revealed that both the plentiful summer moisture and higher clouds are effective in destabilizing the atmosphere. Moreover, clouds heat the mid-troposphere and the cloud radiative heating is balanced by adiabatic cooling through upward motion, which causes meridional wind by the Sverdrup balance. The cloud heating–forced circulation was observed to coincide well with the EASM circulation, serving as a positive effect on EASM circulation.

Role of Microphysical Parameterizations with Droplet Relative Dispersion in IAP AGCM 4.1

Previous studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the cloud droplet effective radius （Re） and the autoconversion process of cloud droplets to raindrops （At） can effectively improve simulated clouds and surface precipitation, and reduce the uncertainty of aerosol indirect effects in GCMs. In this paper, we implement cloud microphysical schemes including two-moment Ar and Re considering relative dispersion of the cloud droplet size distribution into version 4.1 of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics＇s atmospheric GCM （IAP AGCM 4.1）, which is the atmospheric component of the Chinese Academy of Sciences＇ Earth System Model. Analysis of the effects of different schemes shows that the newly implemented schemes can improve both the simulated shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcings, as compared to the standard scheme, in lAP AGCM 4.1. The new schemes also effectively enhance the large-scale precipitation, especially over low latitudes, although the influences of total precipitation are insignificant for different schemes. Further studies show that similar results can be found with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.

Air–Sea Coupling Enhances the East Asian Winter Climate Response to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

A simple air-sea coupled model, the atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled to a mixed-layer slab ocean model, is employed to investigate the impact of air-sea coupling on the signals of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）. A regional coupling strategy is applied, in which coupling is switched off in the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean but switched on in the open oceans elsewhere. The coupled model is forced with warm-phase AMO SST anomalies, and the modeled responses are compared with those from parallel uncoupled AGCM experiments with the same SST forcing. The results suggest that the regionally coupled responses not only resemble the AGCM simulation, but also have a stronger intensity. In comparison, the coupled responses bear greater similarity to the observational composite anomaly. Thus, air-sea coupling enhances the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO. To determine the mechanism responsible for the coupling amplification, an additional set of AGCM experiments, forced with the AMO-induced tropical SST anomalies, is conducted. The SST anomalies are extracted from the simulated AMO-induced SST response in the regionally coupled model. The results suggest that the SST anomalies contribute to the coupling amplification. Thus, tropical air-sea coupling feedback tends to enhance the responses of the East Asian winter climate to the AMO.