Positive y/y inflation is back,which means rising inflation expectations are back on the radar Industrial growth steams ahead,while increasing project starts suggest the same goes for FAI Policies to remain stimulativ...Positive y/y inflation is back,which means rising inflation expectations are back on the radar Industrial growth steams ahead,while increasing project starts suggest the same goes for FAI Policies to remain stimulative,supporting consumption and wage growth into展开更多
Economic outlook-better demand indicates green shoots2019 kicked offwith signs of improving domestic demand We expect recovering infrastructure investment and stabilizing retail sales,helped by higher government spend...Economic outlook-better demand indicates green shoots2019 kicked offwith signs of improving domestic demand We expect recovering infrastructure investment and stabilizing retail sales,helped by higher government spending and tax cuts to support growth in 2019. The biggest headwinds to China’s growth in 2018were a tightening of shadow banking and local government financing and the weakening of housing and car sales are likey to ease.Improving risk sentiment towards Beidjings pro-growth policies and improving prospects for a US-China trade deal have caused China’s stock mariket to rebound more than 20%YTD, supporting the financial sector and GDP growth in 2019.展开更多
We conducted our semi-annual proprietary China developer survey across nine cities in mid-2017. The CDSI reading in our latest survey dropped to 52.8 as of July 2017 from 58.4 as of February 2017. Four of the five sub...We conducted our semi-annual proprietary China developer survey across nine cities in mid-2017. The CDSI reading in our latest survey dropped to 52.8 as of July 2017 from 58.4 as of February 2017. Four of the five sub-indices -- construction, hous- ing sales, developers＇ financing and pol- icy outlook -- fell, while housing prices picked up. This suggests that developers＇ sentiment has weakened amid strict curbs, with their activities losing steam. Our key findings include：展开更多
Divergent development points to catch-up potential China’s economic growth is on a downward trend,having slowed steadily to 6.6%in 2018 from a peak of 14.2%in 2007.While the slowdown is a nationwide phenomenon,growth...Divergent development points to catch-up potential China’s economic growth is on a downward trend,having slowed steadily to 6.6%in 2018 from a peak of 14.2%in 2007.While the slowdown is a nationwide phenomenon,growth in the south has outpaced that in the north in recent years;and within the southern region,new engines of growth are emerging and surpassing the country s traditional growth-driving regions.展开更多
Policy flexibility to absorb external shocks China seems to be striving for the best but preparing for the worst in dealing with the trade stand-off with the US.The tariff truce agreed by both countries at G20 indicat...Policy flexibility to absorb external shocks China seems to be striving for the best but preparing for the worst in dealing with the trade stand-off with the US.The tariff truce agreed by both countries at G20 indicates motivation to reach a trade deal.China has committed to further liberalization and protection of IP to prevent supply chain relocations due to protracted trade friction.Pragmatists in the Trump administration appear to have gained the upper hand for the moment as worries about a fading fiscal stimulus and higher tariffs are causing a slump in the stock market.However,a deal is anything but assured.展开更多
■ Latin America-Brazil trade corridor grows ahead of global development speed ■ From logistics to tax regulations, Sino-Brazilian trade cooperation faces a series of obstacles ■ Sino-Brazilian economic and trade co...■ Latin America-Brazil trade corridor grows ahead of global development speed ■ From logistics to tax regulations, Sino-Brazilian trade cooperation faces a series of obstacles ■ Sino-Brazilian economic and trade cooperation is far more than simple resources展开更多
We expect GDP growth to average 7.1%in 2015:7.1%in Q1,7.2%in Q2 and Q3,and 7.0%in Q4CPI inflation should average 2%;disinflationary pressure is set to build over the next six months We forecast one more interest rate ...We expect GDP growth to average 7.1%in 2015:7.1%in Q1,7.2%in Q2 and Q3,and 7.0%in Q4CPI inflation should average 2%;disinflationary pressure is set to build over the next six months We forecast one more interest rate cut in Q1;weakening employment is weighing on consumption Housing investment should improve in H2-2015,and economic reforms are likely to accelerate in展开更多
*The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January;expectations index improved*Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday;job market deteriorated further*Credit availability remains ti...*The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January;expectations index improved*Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday;job market deteriorated further*Credit availability remains tight for SMEs;financing costs have edged lower*IT sector outperforms;business conditions are healthier in central-western and southem展开更多
Macro:China to pursue reforms China is likely to retain the focus on re-orienting its economy towards consumption,accepting a slower rate of growth.We expect growth to decelerate to around 7%,from an estimated 7.4%in ...Macro:China to pursue reforms China is likely to retain the focus on re-orienting its economy towards consumption,accepting a slower rate of growth.We expect growth to decelerate to around 7%,from an estimated 7.4%in 2014.Faster growth in the US and Europe should help sustain exports while policymakers maintain a tight展开更多
March was a challenging month for the offshore Renminbi(CNH)market.The Standard Chartered Renminbi Globalisation Index(RGI)fell 1.0%m/m to 2,117from a revised 2,138 in February.This was only the third monthly drop sin...March was a challenging month for the offshore Renminbi(CNH)market.The Standard Chartered Renminbi Globalisation Index(RGI)fell 1.0%m/m to 2,117from a revised 2,138 in February.This was only the third monthly drop since the RGI started in 2010,and was the biggest decline since December 2011.展开更多
·China commits to lifting price controls in competitive sectors by 2017 under new guidelines·Reforms focus on monopolistic sectors,public sector and heavily subsidised sectors·Price reforms send a stron...·China commits to lifting price controls in competitive sectors by 2017 under new guidelines·Reforms focus on monopolistic sectors,public sector and heavily subsidised sectors·Price reforms send a strong signal of accelerating deep reformsMost remaining price controls to be lifted by 2017China recently announced a new round of pricing reforms and set a timetable for revamping the country’s pricing mechanism.Price controls for most goods and services in com-展开更多
China’s 2016 budget deficit target of 3%of GDP confirms expansionary fiscal stance;we estimate 3.8% Tax cuts,instead of spending stimulus,are the major reason for the larger deficit The enlarged deficit will be finan...China’s 2016 budget deficit target of 3%of GDP confirms expansionary fiscal stance;we estimate 3.8% Tax cuts,instead of spending stimulus,are the major reason for the larger deficit The enlarged deficit will be financed by bond issuance and government depositsSince the 1994 fiscal reform,China’s official budget has been conservative,with the deficit never reaching 3%of GDP.Recendy,however,policy展开更多
China’s economy can potentially grow at about 7% if capacity is adequately utilised.However,production capacity exceeds demand as a result of credit-driven over-investment in the past decade.Without demand-boosting p...China’s economy can potentially grow at about 7% if capacity is adequately utilised.However,production capacity exceeds demand as a result of credit-driven over-investment in the past decade.Without demand-boosting policies,we estimate that the self-sustaining growth rate is currently 6%at most.The government faces a tougher balancing act in展开更多
Headroom for consumption The government is increasingly looking to consumers to sustain growth.With return on credit-driven investment diminishing and a worsening foreign trade environment,the government recently intr...Headroom for consumption The government is increasingly looking to consumers to sustain growth.With return on credit-driven investment diminishing and a worsening foreign trade environment,the government recently introduced several measures to support consumption,including lowering the tax burden on low-income groups.We think Chinese consumers have great potential to spend more on goods and services,and policies aimed at reducing income disparity,improving housing affordability and strengthening social security could facilitate a transition toward a consumption-led economy.展开更多
GDP growth slowed further to 7.0%y/y in Q1,with few signs of a quick turnaround Investment appears to be driving the downtrend;downside risk to our 2015 GDP growth forecast of 7.1%We forecast one rate cut and one RRR ...GDP growth slowed further to 7.0%y/y in Q1,with few signs of a quick turnaround Investment appears to be driving the downtrend;downside risk to our 2015 GDP growth forecast of 7.1%We forecast one rate cut and one RRR cut by mid-2015,followed by another RRR cut in H2Summary China’s growth展开更多
Chart 1 shows China＇s official l year-on-year （y/y） rate of CPI inflation （6.4% in June）, as ＇well as what the figure wouldbe if pork prices are excluded （4.70%6）. In short, the recent increase in y/y pork pri...Chart 1 shows China＇s official l year-on-year （y/y） rate of CPI inflation （6.4% in June）, as ＇well as what the figure wouldbe if pork prices are excluded （4.70%6）. In short, the recent increase in y/y pork prices is one of the main factors driv- ing up official CPI. Pork accounts for about 10% of the approximately 30% weighting of food in the CPI basket, which means that pork accounted for an extraordinary 27% of June＇s 6.4% CPI inflation reading, according to our cal- culations.展开更多
China's exports to Africa have upgraded the value chain China's exports to Africa have undergone a structural change.In 2000,Chinese exports to Africa were almost evenly distributed in textile and garments(acc...China's exports to Africa have upgraded the value chain China's exports to Africa have undergone a structural change.In 2000,Chinese exports to Africa were almost evenly distributed in textile and garments(accounting for 28%of the country's total exports to Africa),machinery and transport equipment(27%),and other manufactured goods(26%).Since then,the structure of Chinas展开更多
Today we present evidencewhich suggests that Chinais buying fewer US dollar(USD)assets with its new FXreserves.We do not make this claimlightly.Official Treasury InternationalCapital(TIC)system data on China'sUS T...Today we present evidencewhich suggests that Chinais buying fewer US dollar(USD)assets with its new FXreserves.We do not make this claimlightly.Official Treasury InternationalCapital(TIC)system data on China'sUS Treasury展开更多
We look for 8.5% GDP growth in 2012-13 Inflation will likely fall below trend in 2012, and we do not expect rate hikes Current account should fall to around 2% of GDP, suggesting less under-valuation We have revised d...We look for 8.5% GDP growth in 2012-13 Inflation will likely fall below trend in 2012, and we do not expect rate hikes Current account should fall to around 2% of GDP, suggesting less under-valuation We have revised down our 2012 China real GDP growth forecast to 8.5% from 10%, and our forecast for 2013 to 8.5%. There are two main reasons for our call.Inflationhas remained more展开更多
China-Africa Trade Corridor was formed in the 1950s,but trade between the two sides wasn't prosperous until the year 2000.Economic cooperation between China and Africa has a long history.Trade between China and Af...China-Africa Trade Corridor was formed in the 1950s,but trade between the two sides wasn't prosperous until the year 2000.Economic cooperation between China and Africa has a long history.Trade between China and Africa registered展开更多
文摘Positive y/y inflation is back,which means rising inflation expectations are back on the radar Industrial growth steams ahead,while increasing project starts suggest the same goes for FAI Policies to remain stimulative,supporting consumption and wage growth into
文摘Economic outlook-better demand indicates green shoots2019 kicked offwith signs of improving domestic demand We expect recovering infrastructure investment and stabilizing retail sales,helped by higher government spending and tax cuts to support growth in 2019. The biggest headwinds to China’s growth in 2018were a tightening of shadow banking and local government financing and the weakening of housing and car sales are likey to ease.Improving risk sentiment towards Beidjings pro-growth policies and improving prospects for a US-China trade deal have caused China’s stock mariket to rebound more than 20%YTD, supporting the financial sector and GDP growth in 2019.
文摘We conducted our semi-annual proprietary China developer survey across nine cities in mid-2017. The CDSI reading in our latest survey dropped to 52.8 as of July 2017 from 58.4 as of February 2017. Four of the five sub-indices -- construction, hous- ing sales, developers＇ financing and pol- icy outlook -- fell, while housing prices picked up. This suggests that developers＇ sentiment has weakened amid strict curbs, with their activities losing steam. Our key findings include：
文摘Divergent development points to catch-up potential China’s economic growth is on a downward trend,having slowed steadily to 6.6%in 2018 from a peak of 14.2%in 2007.While the slowdown is a nationwide phenomenon,growth in the south has outpaced that in the north in recent years;and within the southern region,new engines of growth are emerging and surpassing the country s traditional growth-driving regions.
文摘Policy flexibility to absorb external shocks China seems to be striving for the best but preparing for the worst in dealing with the trade stand-off with the US.The tariff truce agreed by both countries at G20 indicates motivation to reach a trade deal.China has committed to further liberalization and protection of IP to prevent supply chain relocations due to protracted trade friction.Pragmatists in the Trump administration appear to have gained the upper hand for the moment as worries about a fading fiscal stimulus and higher tariffs are causing a slump in the stock market.However,a deal is anything but assured.
文摘■ Latin America-Brazil trade corridor grows ahead of global development speed ■ From logistics to tax regulations, Sino-Brazilian trade cooperation faces a series of obstacles ■ Sino-Brazilian economic and trade cooperation is far more than simple resources
文摘We expect GDP growth to average 7.1%in 2015:7.1%in Q1,7.2%in Q2 and Q3,and 7.0%in Q4CPI inflation should average 2%;disinflationary pressure is set to build over the next six months We forecast one more interest rate cut in Q1;weakening employment is weighing on consumption Housing investment should improve in H2-2015,and economic reforms are likely to accelerate in
文摘*The SME index fell modestly to 55.6 in February from 56.6 in January;expectations index improved*Real activity weakened during the Lunar New Year holiday;job market deteriorated further*Credit availability remains tight for SMEs;financing costs have edged lower*IT sector outperforms;business conditions are healthier in central-western and southem
文摘Macro:China to pursue reforms China is likely to retain the focus on re-orienting its economy towards consumption,accepting a slower rate of growth.We expect growth to decelerate to around 7%,from an estimated 7.4%in 2014.Faster growth in the US and Europe should help sustain exports while policymakers maintain a tight
文摘March was a challenging month for the offshore Renminbi(CNH)market.The Standard Chartered Renminbi Globalisation Index(RGI)fell 1.0%m/m to 2,117from a revised 2,138 in February.This was only the third monthly drop since the RGI started in 2010,and was the biggest decline since December 2011.
文摘·China commits to lifting price controls in competitive sectors by 2017 under new guidelines·Reforms focus on monopolistic sectors,public sector and heavily subsidised sectors·Price reforms send a strong signal of accelerating deep reformsMost remaining price controls to be lifted by 2017China recently announced a new round of pricing reforms and set a timetable for revamping the country’s pricing mechanism.Price controls for most goods and services in com-
文摘China’s 2016 budget deficit target of 3%of GDP confirms expansionary fiscal stance;we estimate 3.8% Tax cuts,instead of spending stimulus,are the major reason for the larger deficit The enlarged deficit will be financed by bond issuance and government depositsSince the 1994 fiscal reform,China’s official budget has been conservative,with the deficit never reaching 3%of GDP.Recendy,however,policy
文摘China’s economy can potentially grow at about 7% if capacity is adequately utilised.However,production capacity exceeds demand as a result of credit-driven over-investment in the past decade.Without demand-boosting policies,we estimate that the self-sustaining growth rate is currently 6%at most.The government faces a tougher balancing act in
文摘Headroom for consumption The government is increasingly looking to consumers to sustain growth.With return on credit-driven investment diminishing and a worsening foreign trade environment,the government recently introduced several measures to support consumption,including lowering the tax burden on low-income groups.We think Chinese consumers have great potential to spend more on goods and services,and policies aimed at reducing income disparity,improving housing affordability and strengthening social security could facilitate a transition toward a consumption-led economy.
文摘GDP growth slowed further to 7.0%y/y in Q1,with few signs of a quick turnaround Investment appears to be driving the downtrend;downside risk to our 2015 GDP growth forecast of 7.1%We forecast one rate cut and one RRR cut by mid-2015,followed by another RRR cut in H2Summary China’s growth
文摘Chart 1 shows China＇s official l year-on-year （y/y） rate of CPI inflation （6.4% in June）, as ＇well as what the figure wouldbe if pork prices are excluded （4.70%6）. In short, the recent increase in y/y pork prices is one of the main factors driv- ing up official CPI. Pork accounts for about 10% of the approximately 30% weighting of food in the CPI basket, which means that pork accounted for an extraordinary 27% of June＇s 6.4% CPI inflation reading, according to our cal- culations.
文摘China's exports to Africa have upgraded the value chain China's exports to Africa have undergone a structural change.In 2000,Chinese exports to Africa were almost evenly distributed in textile and garments(accounting for 28%of the country's total exports to Africa),machinery and transport equipment(27%),and other manufactured goods(26%).Since then,the structure of Chinas
文摘Today we present evidencewhich suggests that Chinais buying fewer US dollar(USD)assets with its new FXreserves.We do not make this claimlightly.Official Treasury InternationalCapital(TIC)system data on China'sUS Treasury
文摘We look for 8.5% GDP growth in 2012-13 Inflation will likely fall below trend in 2012, and we do not expect rate hikes Current account should fall to around 2% of GDP, suggesting less under-valuation We have revised down our 2012 China real GDP growth forecast to 8.5% from 10%, and our forecast for 2013 to 8.5%. There are two main reasons for our call.Inflationhas remained more
文摘China-Africa Trade Corridor was formed in the 1950s,but trade between the two sides wasn't prosperous until the year 2000.Economic cooperation between China and Africa has a long history.Trade between China and Africa registered
