Analysis on Regional Income Gap and Spatial Convergence in China’s Rural Collective Economy

This paper empirically demonstrates a significant correlation between rural collective economic development,farmers’income and urban-rural relative income gap.With 2009-2018 descriptive statistics on growth characteristics and regional development of rural collective economy in China,the regional disparity,source structure and development profile of collective economic income are measured,and an analysis on the spatial convergence of rural collective economy is conducted from multiple dimensions.It finds that:Firstly,while China witnesses rural collective economic income rapidly grows,regional disparities have been failing to be moderated.Secondly,rural collective economic income gap in China has not significantly narrowed over a decade.It is mainly due to the inter-group differences in geographical locations.The income gap is further widening in the eastern region and shrinking in the central and western regions.Thirdly,capital accumulation prominently contributes to the convergence of collective economy in the eastern region,while technical indicators such as information computerization play signifi cant role to the convergence of other regions.From rate and period of convergence,it takes about 22-30 years for backward provinces to catch up with leading provinces.After variables,such as capital accumulation and information computerization,are controlled,the period of convergence shortens to 20-24 years.Fourthly,rural collective economic income in China has already showed a spatial club convergence of low-level equilibrium trap.

A study on the dynamic comparison of logistics industry’s correlation effects in China

As a basic and strategic industry,the logistics industry is closely linked with and influenced by other industries while influencing them.It plays an irreplaceable role in ensuring smooth operation of the national economy and satisfying the demand of consumers.Its development level directly affects that of the national economy.Based on the analysis into input-output tables from 1997 to 2010,the association effect between the logistics industry and its related industries is measured and the dynamic degree of influence logistics industry exerts on relevant industries at the different periods is observed,both of which enable an objective judgement to be gained in identifying the status of logistics industry in the national economy.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)The status of logistics industry remains to be further promoted.(2)The logistics industry turns into one with“low added value and strong leading force”.(3)Industrial logistics is the main trend while logistics of service industry change.(4)The logistics industry is closely linked with the second industry.The author then puts forward countermeasures and suggestions:(1)Develop Third-Part Logistic in order to promote the socialisation and specialisation level of logistics distribution;(2)Speed up the development of electronic business logistics,set up reasonable layout of transportation infrastructure and build entitative logistics network;(3)Accelerate the logistics informationization and standardization and improve management and service levels of logistics enterprises.

Research on the Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations of China in the Past 70 Years:Fiscal Decentralization in Evolution

Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,the Chinese scholars of finance theory have been sparing no effort on the theoretical research of intergovernmental fiscal relations in the past 70 years,with fiscal decentralization at the core.Although fiscal decentralization has a long history,the intergovernmental fiscal relations which use fiscal decentralization as the vehicle did not constitute an independent research topic in the early days of the People’s Republic of China.Later,fiscal decentralization was adopted and gradually flourished in China,once systematically explained as the target mode of intergovernmental fiscal relations,and even took the form of tax sharing system.In the new era of socialism with Chinses characteristics,the booming research on intergovernmental fiscal relations,adapted to the theoretical innovation of modern fiscal system,has contributed to coping with the changes of international and domestic economic situation in the new normal and to the sustainable fiscal development of China.

Government Subsidies,Resource Misallocation and Manufacturing Productivity

Government subsidies for some firms will have effects on the market entry,exit and scale of firms,result in misallocation of resource between firms,and reduce manufacturing productivity.Using data of Chinese industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2007,this paper studies the effect and micro-mechanism of misallocation caused by government subsidy on manufacturing productivity.Decomposition of manufacturing productivity indicates there is resource misallocation between firms and decreasing of manufacturing productivity.Empirical study shows that government subsidies constitute an important factor inducing this resource misallocation.Subsidies change extensive and intensive margins of market,distort resource allocation between firms and reduce manufacturing productivity,and the resource misallocation is more serious in industries with higher proportion of state-owned assets.Specifically,subsidies hinder entry and exit of firms in extensive margins,with subsidized firms having lower propability of market entry and exit compared with unsubsidized firms;subsidies promote scale of subsidized firms and crowds out market share of unsubsidized firms in intensive margins.The implication of this paper is that when providing subsidies government should take into consideration their effect on the firms’dynamic and resource allocation in the frame of general equilibrium.

Make Coordinated Efforts to Advance the Building of Modern Circulation System in the Context of the New Development Pattern

The circulation system links production and consumption.It is not only the basis on which the new development pattern is built but also an important guarantee for achieving domestic circulation.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,improving the modern circulation system is essential for ensuring unimpeded domestic circulation and supporting high-quality economic development.This paper expounds on the new changes of and requirements on the circulation system under new circumstances,summarizes the current situation of the circulation system,analyzes the problems and challenges that the circulation system is faced with according to new requirements,and makes recommendations and puts forward main measures in a targeted way,so as to provide references for promoting coordinated development of the modern circulation system.

On the Effectiveness and Externalities of the Home Purchase Restriction Policy in China

In order to curb the soaring house prices,the Chinese govemment has been focusing on macro-control of real estate on the demand side.Among them,the Home Purchase Restriction(HPR)is one of the most commonly used policy tools,and its influence has atracted the attention from both the public and the academia.Although many scholars have studied the effectiveness of the home purchase restriction policy,there is n0 universal conclusion and the empirical research on the externalities of this policy is scarce.Based on the daily transaction micro-data of the real estate sales market,the rental market and the land market,this paper uses the difference-in-difference model to evaluate the effectiveness of the HPR more accurately,further integrates the relevance of each market into the analytical framework and explores the externalitics of the HPR on the real estate rental market and the land market.The empirical results show that the HPR lowers the house price by 10.12%,which is higher than the estimation results of previous studies;and increases the rent by 25.09%,while decreases the residential land price by 9.08%,with no significant impact on industrial and commercial land prices.A series of robustness tests and counterfactual analysis,such as PSM-DID,all support the reliability of the empirical results.The extemnalities of the HPR indicates that the policy is not conducive to improving the welfare of pcople with the rigid housing demand,and may tigger the"soft resistance"of the local government.Therefore,the govermment should focus on how to promote the supply-side structural reform on the land market and real estate market on the basis of strengthening the local tax system.

Estimations on GDP growth in China’s“new normal”period

This paper studies China’s potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period,and estimates the potential growth rate from the perspectives of demographic dividends,capital stock,and total factor growth rates,according to the neoclassical growth equation.Meanwhile,based on China’s current situation,the following factors are also taken into account:(1)political level,which is the requirement for building a moderately prosperous society;(2)the potential demand from new urbanization in China;(3)constraints in China’s development,which are from resources,environment,and debt stress.Overall,the potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period is changing along with changes in demographic structure,capital endowment,environmental requirements,and other constraints.We believe that a reasonable economic growth rate in the“New Normal”period should be around 7.5%in 2014,with an average growth of 6.5%for the period of 2016-2020,and the trend will then continue downward.On the basis of our analysis,we make some suggestions regarding macro-control,social welfare policy,and relative reform measures.

Local Government Debt,Sectoral Linkage and Resource Allocation Efficiency

Increasing the efficiency of resource allocation is the basis and guarantee for boosting high-quality economic development.Based on the panel data of Chinese industrial enterprises and cities from 2008 to 2013,this paper studies the influence of infrastructure construction demand shocks represented by local government debt expansion on the efficiency of sectoral resource allocation from the perspective of sectoral linkage.According to the empirical findings,local government debt significantly reduces the resource allocation efficiency of manufacturing sector that is highly related to infrastructure construction.This conclusion is still tenable after the robustness test using the simulated local government debt as an instrumental variable.Further mechanism tests show that there are two reasons for the decline of the efficiency of resource allocation in manufacturing sector that is highly related to infrastructure construction.First,more product demands and investments brought by the expansion of local government debt flow to less productive enterprises in the sector.Second,resource misallocation reduces the probability of high-productivity enterprises entering the market and low-productivity enterprises exiting the market,and the effect is more prominent in cities with high dependence on state-owned enterprises and high pressure on officials to be promoted.According to this study,the performance management of local government debt should be further strengthened,and particular attention should be paid to the influence of local government debt on enterprise investment and financing crowding out and resource misallocation.

Does Internet Use Improve the Income of Residents? -Empirical Evidence from CGSS2017

The Internet penetration rate rises sharply in recent years in China.This change has had a significant impact on residents’income.By using Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)data set,this paper investigates whether residents who use the Internet earn a higher income than similar residents who do not use the Internet by using propensity score matching.The results show that there is a premium associated with Internet use.Estimates suggest that a premium for residents who use the Internet is around twice as much for residents who do not use the Internet.Additionally,this paper fi nds that the inlome differences between using the Internet and not using the Internet for groups of middle-aged and elderly resident and agricultural household registration residents are more significant.Based on the research results,several relevant policy implications are presented to improve resident’s income.

The causes of chronic and transient poverty and the implications for poverty reduction policy in rural China

The study focuses on two components of total poverty:chronic and transient poverty,and investigates their relative importance in total observed poverty,as well as the determinants of each component.We find that transient poverty accounts for a large proportion of total poverty observed in the poor rural areas of China.By analyzing the determinants of the two types of poverty,we find that household demographic characteristics,such as age of the head of households,family sizes,labour participation ratio,and educational level of the head of the households,are very important to the poverty status of households.These factors matter more to chronic poverty than transient poverty,and have greater impacts on the poverty measured by consumption than that measured by income.Besides the demographic factors of households,other household factors like physical stocks,the composition of income,and the amount of cultivated lands also have significant effects on both chronic and transient poverty.It is also confirmed that change in cash holding and saving and borrowing grain are used by rural households to cope with income variation and smooth their consumption.Attributes of community where the households reside are also important to poverty.With very few exceptions,we do not find that poverty programs have significant impact on poverty reduction at the households’level.We interpret this as the poverty programs benefiting the wealthy more than the poor in a given poor area.The main reason for this could be that the implementation design of these programs fails to target the poor.

Energy Price Fluctuation and Real Estate Market Risk Prevention——Empirical Evidence at the Prefecture-Level City Level in China

The impact of energy price fl uctuation on the macro economy is a hot issue that is continuously concerned by the academic community,but few literature have paid attention to the impact of energy price fl uctuation on housing price and the financial risks that may arise.Based on the data of cities at and above the prefecture level in China,this paper empirically examines the impact of energy price fl uctuation on the price fl uctuation of the domestic real estate,and analyzes its infl uencing mechanism and transmission pathways.The results show that changes of energy price will significantly affect the fl uctuation of domestic real estate price,and it is more obvious in large cities and megacities.Energy price affect the demand for housing through changes of interest rate levels on the one hand,and the supply of the real estate market through the cost of housing construction on the other hand,which leads to housing price fl uctuation.After a series of robustness tests,the results are still valid.At the same time,the effect is asymmetric,that is,higher energy price increases the fl uctuation of house price,but the impact of falling energy price is not significant.Therefore,when preventing real estate market risks,energy price should be considered as a forward-looking indicator to focus on,and the regulation and control policies of the real estate market should be scientifically formulated.This paper not only provides a new perspective on the mechanism of housing price formation,but also enriches the research on the interconnection between energy and financial markets.

Do exports firms outperform non-export ones?An empirical study on different classification of manufacturing industries in China

Using Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database between 2005 and 2009,this paper constructs indicators,from aspects of efficiency,size and financing condition to explore comprehensively the new entry exporters’performance advantage over non-exporters by the method of PSM.The manufacturing industries are then classified into four categories,namely high-technology,medium-high-technology,medium-low-technology and low-technology,for detailed study.The results show that neither self-selection effect nor learning-by-exporting effect exists in Chinese exporters on the whole.Firms with lower productivity show higher export preference.Export is helpful for employment expansion and income increase;however,it does not enhance productivity and return on asset improvement.Firms in medium-high-technology industry learn by exporting significantly with obviously better performance than those in other categories,while low-technology export firms’performance is the worst.The policy implications is as follows:first,foreign trade structure needs to be upgraded steadily;second,medium-high-technology industry is suggested to be the key area to cultivate competitive advantage for export;third,increasing support to high-technology industry should be considered.

Evaluation of financial management reform in China since 1994

Financial management system reform is the extension and an important part of the finance and taxation reform in 1994.This paper conducts systematical evaluation of the financial management system reform since 1994 with the concrete 3 evaluation standards.The evaluation shows that the financial management system reform since 1994 promotes the implementation of the finance and taxation reform,finishes the stage task of financial management system,and continues to construct the financial management system in accordance with the requirements of modern financial system.Future financial reform should comply with the route map and timetable of deepening finance and taxation reform,focus on the reform of budget management reform,and construct the financial management system in accordance with the requirements of modern financial system.

Cumulative Tariff Cost Rate and Structure in the Global Value Chain:A Theoretical and Empirical Study

This paper constructs a more unified measurement framework from the perspective of the Leontief inverse matrix and Ghosh inverse matrix(Ghosh).At the same time,referring to the four-term decomposition method of Leontief inverse matrix in Muradov(2016),this paper analyzes the structural decomposition of the cumulative tariff cost rate.Results show that(1)Overall,from 2000 to 2017,China's cumulative tariff cost rate,direct tariff cost rate,and multi-stage tariff cost rate all showed a downward trend,and the decline was greater than that of other countries(regions).China has strictly fulflled its WTO accession commitments and has greatly reduced the tariff rate on imported intermediate goods.(2)With China's deep participation in the global value chain,the amplification effect of China's tariffs has increased from 2.57 in 2000 to 3.17 in 2017,and there is a certain degree of"amplification effect"(above 1.5)in tariffs in all countries in the world.(3)From the perspective of the contribution rate of various countries in the world,China contributes the most to the global cumulative tariff cost rate,which is due to the complexity of the global production network structure,rather than the excessively high tariff rate imposed by China on imported intermediate goods.In terms of policy implications,if China did not take the initiative to reduce tariffs,the structural changes in the global production network would lead to a larger global cumulative tariff cost rate.

Do Institutional Investors Drive Financialization of Real Sectors?

The trend that China's economy is being"off the real to the virtual"is a typical fact in recent years.A large number of firms invest and hold financial asscts,the investing and profit-generating channels of the real sectors are becoming more and more financialized.By utilizing sample of Chinese A-share manufacturing firms from the year of 2007 to 2015,and using fixed effect model,this paper investigates the driving factor of the financialization of real sectors.The results show that:(1)institutional investors,overall,drive the financialization of real sectors;(2)instiutional investors are heterogeneous,that is,long-term institutional investors do not show a significant correlation with the financialization of real sectors;however,short-term institutional investors significantly drive the financialization of real sectors;(3)the results.of further investigation show that the driving effect of institutional investors on financialization is more significant in state owned firms than that in private firms.The findings have implications as follows:guiding the investment behavior of institutional investors,leading financial sector to serve the real economy,promoting financial structure reform.

Analysis of the costs and benefits of citizenization in China

Rapid industrialization in the wake of reform and opening up has transferred a large rural population to the cities,yet the vast majority of these people are not entitled to the same urban social services as are urban residents,including education and healthcare.This poses unique problems for the urbanization of the migrant agricultural population.Many analysts hold that the biggest barrier to making these migrant rural citizens into compleu urban citizens is the high cost.Pan Jiahua,through a comprehensive analysis of the benefits and costs of the agricultural population transfer,maintains that the benefits far outweigh the costs,and the problem lies in the asymmetry of real interests and the limited expenditure on basic urban social services for the transferring agricultural population.The key to resolving the conundrum of cost in the urbanization of the transferring agricultural population lies in scientifically understanding benefits,breaking pattern of real interests,and accelerating the process of urbanization of the transferring agricultural population.

Impact of Embeddedness in Global Value Chains on the Differentiation of Technological Sophistication of Exports

This paper adopts the production decomposition developed by Wang et al.(2017)and data from the World Input-Output Database(WIOD)to estimate the degrees of forward and backward participation in global value chains(GVCs)in 2000-2014 by the world’s major economies including China,and to do an empirical examination on the impact that heterogeneous forms of participation in GVCs have on the improvement of GVCs.The results show that forward participation in GVCs helps increase the sophistication of exports,while backward participation in GVCs exerts different infl uence on the sophistication of exports.While a lower level of backward participation by a country is constrained by the country’s current position in the international division of labor and thus does not help increase the sophistication of its exports,a higher level of backward participation helps break through the bottleneck of low-end locking in GVCs and increase the sophistication of exports.

Thoughts on a comprehensive tax reform

“The Decision on Several Major Issues Regarding the Deepening of Reform”adopted by the Third Plenum of the Eighteenth Session of the CPC Central Committee gave a new position to the next round of tax reform,and proposed its objectives,tone,mission,and core tasks.The new round of tax reform should cover a wide range of issues,including state governance,tax legislation,economic reform and development,social management,globalization,ecological and environmental protection,improvement of tax collection,as well as other related issues.Particular attention should be paid to replacing business tax with VAT,completing legislation on VAT,adjusting the scope,collection mechanisms,and rates of consumption tax;strengthening regulation and control,implementing a personal income tax system that considers both aggregate income and income by source,promoting real estate tax legislation,expanding the ad valorem natural resource tax,accelerating the gradual replacement of fees with taxes,and introducing legislation on environmental protection taxes.

A review of tax-sharing reform and related thoughts

Begun in 1994,tax-sharing reform in China has been a major adjustment to and innovation within the taxation and fiscal system.Yet,despite its sound policy effects on the economy,there is still room for improvement.This essay starts with a review of its implementation and problems over the past 20 years,and based on that,seeks to discuss some enablers of deeper fiscal reform.The essay also goes into details in the analysis of measures for completing a hierarchical fiscal system,making the division of administrative power more rational,having a clearer definition of centrally and locally owned revenues,optimizing the transfer payment system,and improving the fiscal system below the provincial level.

Does Rising House Price Push Chinese Households to“Leverage Up”More?-A Study from the Perspective of Heterogeneity of House-Buying Motivation

The rapid rise of leverage in Chinese household sector in recent years has attracted considerable attention,and high housing prices might be the main reason for the phenomenon.Do different house-buying motivations of households give an impetus to it?Researching this problem is of great importance to understand mechanisms for the formation of household leverage and taking targeted housing policies.Theoretical analysis in this paper fi nds that if house-buying motivation that was speculative was quite obvious,rising housing prices would result in the leverage of non-fi rst-house(NFH)households outpacing that of first-house(FH)households.On this basis,we conducted empirical analysis with a state-owned bank’s all housing mortgage loan data on 70 large and medium-sized cities for 2016 and the IV(instrumental variables)and DID(differences-in-differences)methods,and compared the two types of households from the inter-city and intra-city dimensions.The result showed that rising housing prices indeed drive up the debt balance and leverage of NFH households significantly more than those of FH households.Furthermore,our research found that a rise in housing prices has prompted NFH households to be more inclined to make the most use of mortgage policies with no substantial housing difference.To curb excessive leverage increase in the household sector,therefore,apart from regulating high expectations of housing prices,there should be stepped-up credit constraints on NFH households,thus restricting their behavior of excessive speculation.